Ex - Tropical Cyclone INGRID (22P)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:20 pm CST Friday 4 March 2005

A developing TROPICAL LOW 1007 hPa is situated in the northeastern GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. At 1pm it was slow moving near latitude 11.2S, longitude 140.0E,
about 365 km east northeast of Nhulunbuy. The LOW is expected to move east
towards Cape York Peninsula during the weekend.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Moderate.


NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING HEALTHIER, WITH A BEAUTIFUL SPIRAL STRUCTURE AND VISIBLE BANDS OF RAIN ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTER OUTWARDS. DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 125 NM RADIUS OF 13.1S5 147.9E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY­
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051800Z4 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 147.3E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9
145.0E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 147.3E5, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. A 051826Z2 TRMM PASS DEPICTS
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES THE DISTURBANCE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. SEE REF
B (WTPS22 PGTW 052100Z) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062100Z9.//



05/2025 UTC 12.4S 146.8E T2.5/2.5 91P -- South Pacific Ocean

THE SYSTEM EAST OF QUEENSLAND CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS YOU CAN SEE, THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY ATTAINED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ACCORDING TO DVORAK. THE NEXT NAME TO BE USED WILL BE "INGRID."

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes that is a tropical storm. They are just like there older brother the nhc both slow.

[HurricaneBill]

Yes that is a tropical storm. They are just like there older brother the nhc both slow.

OK, you're getting real irritating. The JTWC is not in charge of the Australian basin. The BoM is. It is not the main responsibility of JTWC.

They do not fly hurricane hunter aircraft into these storms. They go by satellite estimates.

I'm sure if you had your way, every invest that pops up would automatically be called a tropical storm. But that's not how it works.

[senorpepr]

Yes that is a tropical storm. They are just like there older brother the nhc both slow.

Are you saying that NHC is the Australian Bureau of Meteorolog's older brother?

I've read your comments on this and other forums and it kinda bothers me. First, you're bashing on NHC. IT'S ONLY MARCH. Simmer down.

Secondly, either you're bashing BoM for their slowness or you're bashing the JTWC for their slowness.

If you're bashing BoM... how much experience do you have with BoM? Also, they are right on track in my opinion. Looking at the data I have, this is about a 35 mph (1-min avg) system. Satellite looks a little stronger, but not all storms are created equal. Some storms look more powerful on satellite than they really are and vice versa. Regardless, BoM has this system as a tropical low which matches up with their local classification convention and the conversion between 1-min and 10-min wind speed averages.

If you're bashing JTWC... slap your wrists. When you get done, all them again. The JTWC can be as slow as they want. I remind you, THEY ARE NOT AN OFFICIAL WARNING AGENCY. Take a second and re-read that sentence. They're in the business of warning on US military assests.

This is a tropical depression if not a tropical storm with 2.5 t numbers. But I can't say it is because the offical slowness people have not said so. 10 years of tracking these systems gives you a level of skill to say if its so or not. This is a joke.

As for what I said above, BoM and JTWC are pretty much in line. JTWC has it as a depression in intensity, but they haven't giving the cyclone a number. You, anybody else here, or myself should not critique the US Navy on their protocol in this situation.

You also claim the "offical slowness people". Once again, simmer down. You can't be trigger happy all of the time. I invite you to sit in the chair of these forecasters. There are guidelines before going all "depression-crazy."

You also claim "10 years of tracking these systems gives you a level of skill to say if its so or not." Have you honestly been tracking South Pacific cyclones for 10 years? If so, good for you. I'm glad to see you stick with a good hobby. However, it still doesn't give you the right to bash on those with degrees, you have spend years taking college classes on the physics of our atmosphere.

In my opinion, I suggest you simmer down.

[senorpepr]

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0005 UTC 6 March 2005

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Low with a central pressure of 1002 hectopascals centred at 060000UTC
near 12.7 south 148.0 east moving east southeast at 7 knots. Position Fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60nm of south of the centre of the low and within 120nm north of the
centre..

FORECAST
Expect clockwise winds increasing to 35/40 knots.

Seas becoming rough to very rough. Moderate swells developing.

Forecast position 061200UTC 12.8S 149.2E
Forecast position 070000UTC 13.0S 149.1E


REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[senorpepr]

We have Ingrid...

IDQ20065
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For midday EST on Sunday the 6th of March 2005

The low in the northern Coral Sea has now developed into a tropical cyclone. At
midday category 1 tropical cyclone Ingrid with central pressure 998 hPa, was
located near 12.7S 148.0E, about 430 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and was
moving east southeast at about 15 km/hr.

Tropical cyclone Ingrid is expected to move in a general easterly direction over
the next 24 hours and should continue to intensify.

At this stage Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the north coast of Queensland.


The next information Bulletin will be issued at 5 pm this afternoon

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I did not say a #$## thing about the Jtwc but the BOM which is the offical forecasters. It has been a tropical cyclone for the last 6 to 12 hours. Open your mind in think my friend.

[AussieMark]

the BOM do a great job don't give out uncessary critisism.

If they felt it was a Category 1 Cyclone (which on your scale is a tropical storm) they would of upgraded it.

Maybe they just didn't think it wsa organized enough to warrant upgrading.

thats just my 2 bobs worth anyway

[HurricaneBill]

I did not say a #$## thing about the Jtwc but the BOM which is the offical forecasters. It has been a tropical cyclone for the last 6 to 12 hours. Open your mind in think my friend.

Maybe you should follow your own advice!

You have called the JTWC slow (among other things) in the past. The NHC is slow to you. The BoM is slow to you. Who's next?

What makes you so sure this has been a tropical cyclone? Are you an expert?

You've been tracking storms for 10 years so you know? Big deal! I've been tracking storms for 15 years and I'm no expert.

Grow up!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Do you see those feeder band or that the quickscat has a closed LLC. With 2.5 T? It is common since. Now who needs to grow up?:grrr:

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For midday EST on Sunday the 6th of March 2005

The low in the northern Coral Sea has now developed into a tropical cyclone. At
midday category 1 tropical cyclone Ingrid with central pressure 998 hPa, was
located near 12.7S 148.0E, about 430 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and was
moving east southeast at about 15 km/hr.

Tropical cyclone Ingrid is expected to move in a general easterly direction over
the next 24 hours and should continue to intensify.

At this stage Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the north coast of Queensland.

The next information Bulletin will be issued at 5 pm this afternoon



Name: Ingrid
Severity Category: 1
Situation At: 12PM EST Sunday 6 March 2005
Warning Area: No coastal threat area
Watch Area: No coastal threat area
Location: 12.7S 148.0E
Recent Movement: ESE at 15 km/h
Remarks: At midday, Tropical Cyclone Ingrid was located approximately 430 km NE of Cooktown. It is expected to continue moving eastwards over the next 24 hours.

At this stage, Tropical Cyclone Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.


Marine users please note: Warnings specific to the marine community are contained in Coastal Wind Warnings and Ocean Wind Warnings. Refer to those warnings for the winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Ingrid.

The next track map will be issued by 5 pm EST.

TC INGRID HAS FORMED AND AT THIS MOMENT IS NOT A THREAT FOR LAND AREAS. INGRID SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 TO 72 HOURS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry guys just having a bad day today.

[senorpepr]

I did not say a #$## thing about the Jtwc but the BOM which is the offical forecasters. It has been a tropical cyclone for the last 6 to 12 hours. Open your mind in think my friend.

Okay... here we go.

First, I didn't know who you were bashing. In any event, I presented a rebuttal to both BoM-bashing and JTWC-bashing. Either way, it's not called for. BoM was on the ball with Ingrid. I think, "with your ten years of experience" you need to sit down and read the WMO's manuals.

Do you realize that a 40 mph system, what we would call in the Atlantic a tropical storm, is NOT a tropical cyclone in the South Pacific? The conversion would be a 30 knot (10-min avg) system. That is nothing more than a tropical low... which is what the BoM called it. A "tropical low." Golly-gee, imagine that -- they followed procedure.

Guess what... although a T2.5 would warrent a 40 mph (1-min avg) in the Atlantic, in this case BoM was on the ball. Do the converstion and, my friend, we have ourselves a 30kt (10-min avg) tropical low.

Okay, so before bashing the Bureau of Meteorology, realize this: other parts of the world go by different standards.

Now, before I go on any further, I just want to stop and say that I'm not trying to belittle you. I do, however, feel you need to give respect to these degreed meteorologists throughout the world. They know what they are doing. Trust me.

Now... let's drop this sidebar junk and focus on Ingrid and her future path.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I guest I'm wrong then. I have been tracking Atlatnic Eastern Pacific systems at least that long. But this is only the second year for the south Hem. Yes they deserve respect but I'm use of the data of the North Atlatnic/Eastern Pacific.

[senorpepr]

I guest I'm wrong then. I have been tracking Atlatnic Eastern Pacific systems at least that long. But this is only the second year for the south Hem. Yes they deserve respect but I'm use of the data of the North Atlatnic/Eastern Pacific.

Fair enough. Learning is a part of life.

[senorpepr]

06/0225 UTC 13.0S 147.8E T3.0/3.0 91P -- South Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

06/0225 UTC 13.0S 147.8E T3.0/3.0 91P -- South Pacific Ocean

IT SEEMS LIKE THE CORAL SEA IS BEGINNING TO COOK REALLY GOOD, INGRID IS GOING UP QUICKLY.

[senorpepr]

I've turned on the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update's alert page for Ingrid. As I mention above, if you have any ideas of data that you'd like to see on the page, please let me know.

Thanks,
Mike

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/alert.htm

[HURAKAN]

I've turned on the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update's alert page for Ingrid. As I mention above, if you have any ideas of data that you'd like to see on the page, please let me know.

Thanks,
Mike

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/alert.htm

I'M VERY PLEASED TO SAY THAT YOUR COVERAGE OF TC INGRID IS PRETTY COMPLETE CONSIDERING THE REATIVELY LOW INFORMATION THAT IS POSSIBLE TO GET FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC.