Pacific Northwest Weather

Guest · #2921 Postby **Guest** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:07 pm

Well the 12z suggests the pattern shift even earlier than the previous model runs... Now this run shows it happening completely between day 8 and 9 with a COLD pattern setting up... Between 10 and 13 there is a complete northerly flow which would keep us FREEZING... After that it looks like something rediculous sets up... Something that looks like a 1950 type of thing... But I think this model run went completely out of wack after about day 12 or so, so the big snowstorm and intense arctic blast will not be on there on the 18z... Now if it is on there in the next few runs I won't know what to think.... But one thing is for sure, we are definately going to be experiencing a big change in weather in a little over a week.

Guest · #2922 Postby **Guest** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:29 pm

I can't believe what this is showing...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml

It is impossible in mid march...I think

AnthonyC · #2923 Postby **AnthonyC** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 2:30 pm

Dude, the stomach flu sucks! I've been bored out of my mind the past two days...in between getting sick. lol.

SOME weather today...nothing too exciting but definitely not sunny. A band of showers passed by a little while ago...and it's a little breezy...gusts up to 25mph. Most active weather in awhile.

As for the extended, a major ridge still looks to develop the end of this weekend and ALL of next week. Actually, latest 500 mb heights are ridiculously high...almost to 580...which would suggest temperatures of at least the mid 70s. But since it's only March, I'll say mid 60s. Hopefully this weather plays out.

Tomorrow should be generally sunny with a minor upper level ridge passing by the PNW. But it will be short-lived as another weak trough passes through. But has been the case most of the winter, this trough will split as it approaches the PNW.

In the far extended, the GFS introduces a pattern shift beginning next weekend. But I don't buy it. Latest 12z GFS brings an arctic outbreak beyond day 10. Seems ridiculous to me.

Anthony

andycottle · #2924 Postby **andycottle** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 3:11 pm

Yeah...I can`t believe it either! A pattern like shown in the long range with the cold artic blast would have surface temps in the 20`s and lows in the teens. NO WAY! Spring is almost here man! I would be alright with it if it happend, but come on...I`m tring to get my garden ready for planting. Did you hear that? PLANTING!:):) -- Andy

Guest · #2925 Postby **Guest** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 3:55 pm

I don't buy that arctic outbreak but I do buy the pattern change... me and snowwizz have been saying it for the past or 5 or 6 days now... This pattern change was shown by the GFS at day 15 a while back and now it is up to day 9... I think this one is going to happen... Now the last few days the GFS has shown cool northerly flow for the most part, a few runs have been colder than others, but this just looks crazy... I can believe what it is showing between days 9 and 13, but the 1950's like arctic outbreak looks insane... If that happened we could experience March of 1951 all over again... Bellingham had snow on the ground for 9 straight days with a maximum of 23 inches at one point.

It could happen.... 1 out of a 100 chance but I'll hope for that insane 1%...

Guest · #2926 Postby **Guest** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 6:13 pm

Well I was surprised with the 18z... The 12z was extremely cold and I thought the 18z would be completely opposite... I knew it wasn't going to follow up with the 12z's crazy coldness... But, it still has the same idea of changing the pattern and becoming quite cold with a trough in the western US... This bodes well for our chances for snow... It will be VERY interesting to see how this plays out... TT, what is your thought on this now? It is starting to be close... 9 days away...

TT-SEA · #2927 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 6:28 pm

It looks very interesting.

Unfortunately what we really need is cool and moist. Not cold and dry.

BTW - I am in Salt Lake City at a client the rest of the week.

AnthonyC · #2928 Postby **AnthonyC** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 6:29 pm

Another "not-so-bad" day. Partly cloudy conditions with a warm, south breeze.

Next week is shaping up to be the warmest week of the season...afternoon highs in the mid, upper 60s with plenty of sunshine. I'm stoaked! Spring is just around the corner!!

For now, I'm going to continue to ignore the pattern shift the GFS is advertising. Until it happens, I don't believe it.

Anthony

andrewr · #2929 Postby **andrewr** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 6:35 pm

We had a lot of showers today and a moderate one just past through. To the East it looks like the end of the world with dark clouds and to the west it looks like summer with just a few clouds. Usually I can see a rainbow to the East when this happens, but maybe the sun isn't at the right angle to make one right now.

R-Dub · #2930 Postby **R-Dub** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 6:47 pm

Been a completely dry day here in my area, would range between mostly cloudy and partly cloudy. With the breezy conditions I saw something really awesome today!! The pollen off the cedar trees were blowing around like crazy, looked like the trees were smoking!! We are almost a month early with that amount of pollen in the air. Lets just say I was sneezing all day, and my car is completely covered in it :lol:

Feel better Anthony!!! Sun and warm is on the way!!!!

3/2/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:45:08 PM CURRENT
Partly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 55.5
Humidity (%) 62.7
Wind (mph) SE 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.09
Dew Point: 43.1 ºF

W13 · #2931 Postby **W13** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 6:47 pm

andrewr wrote:We had a lot of showers today and a moderate one just past through. To the East it looks like the end of the world with dark clouds and to the west it looks like summer with just a few clouds. Usually I can see a rainbow to the East when this happens, but maybe the sun isn't at the right angle to make one right now.

Yep, we just got hit by a decent downpour. It only lasted a few minutes though, so nothing major. Now, just as you said, it is sunner and to the east it is dark and gloomy.

W13 · #2932 Postby **W13** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 6:49 pm

Currently 53 F and Mostly Sunny. 8-)

W13 · #2933 Postby **W13** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 6:50 pm

*Brennan* wrote:Well I was surprised with the 18z... The 12z was extremely cold and I thought the 18z would be completely opposite... I knew it wasn't going to follow up with the 12z's crazy coldness... But, it still has the same idea of changing the pattern and becoming quite cold with a trough in the western US... This bodes well for our chances for snow... It will be VERY interesting to see how this plays out... TT, what is your thought on this now? It is starting to be close... 9 days away...

Let's see what the 0z GFS shows, since historically speaking that is the most accurate run of the GFS, out of all four runs.

Very intersting though, I will probably check out the other long-range models tommorow, if the GFS is still showing this set-up then.

Guest · #2934 Postby **Guest** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 7:02 pm

Anthony, have you lost it? You have no faith in anything now a days with this weather... I can't believe you are going to be a meteorologist... GET EXCITED OR SOMETHING.

Yeah the 0z will tell the tale... but the last SEVERAL runs have had the same idea of a colder pattern... Not nearly as cold as the last 2 runs though...

AnthonyC · #2935 Postby **AnthonyC** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 7:11 pm

Brennan...lol.

I haven't lost it. I just want sun/warm temperatures. At this point in the season, I don't want snow/arctic cold. Doesn't mean I don't like it or don't want to see it in the future. And I still suggest a word of caution...REMEMBER, it will be the middle of March...the sun angle will be higher, daytime heating will be longer...it's VERY HARD to get lowland snow. So don't set your hopes too high...you'll just get disappointed. I think we've been disappointed enough this winter season.

Anthony

andrewr · #2936 Postby **andrewr** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 8:01 pm

Getting another shower right now. Usually when showers are this spotty I never seem to get anything, but today I could swear I have hit every single one!

R-Dub · #2937 Postby **R-Dub** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 10:49 pm

3/2/05 LK Goodwin WA
7:48:17 PM CURRENT
Partly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 47.0
Humidity (%) 86.5
Wind (mph) SSE 1.1
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 30.13
Dew Point: 43.2 ºF

Guest · #2938 Postby **Guest** » Wed Mar 02, 2005 11:07 pm

This winter has been dissapointing SNOWWIZE.... but I think overall this winter is something to build on... I am not dissapointed... And if we don't get snow here in mid march I will be dissapointed, but I'll get over it... I will go through 2 weeks of excitement to go through a couple days of dissapointment any day... I'm not going to stop getting excited because majority of the time i am dissapointed... That is like living life scared... I am PUMPED about mid march...

andycottle · #2939 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 12:11 am

Here in Woodinville, it was pretty showery here through at least around noon. Then later on the in afternoon and through early evening we had partly cloudy skies. Turned out be a nice afternoon! My high today was 58 with a low of 44. Also saw some pretty nice Strato Cumulus/Cumulus clouds early this evening. -- Andy

andycottle · #2940 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 12:46 am

Looking tonights 00z GFS...it would appear that the high pressure system will be taking hold of our weather starting this Friday(4th) and lasting through about the 11th. Now however, we might see a few sprinkles around the 10th as a very weak system bumps into the Strong 1024MB high pressure dome. During this time, 500MB vorticity heights warm to near 576DM with breezy South to SW winds...switching around to West and NW for the 10th. 850MB temps warm to near +9C with heights around 1530M and light southerly winds of 5 to 10kts and switching to light West winds on or about the 10th/11th time frame. So we should be heading into a very nice weekend. Work week looks nice as well! Could see highs in the lower 70`s for next week if the current forecast holds true.

In the extened outlook....the GFS has completely thrown out the idea of any COLD artic weather and is going toward a milder weather pattern with 500MB heights in the 550`sDM.

-- Andy

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