Pacific Northwest Weather

[Guest]

TT that is rediculous for you to think of SnowWizzards years and years of research as pointless... And the amount of people living in Seattle doesn't have anything to do with the amount of snow they get... There hasn't been a good set up for a good snowstorm in a LONG TIME...1996 had a good set-up... 1990 had a good set up... What did we get out of it? SNOW, and lots of it... It has nothing to do with the amount of people that live here...

And that stuff about the global pattern being different and all that jibberish you posted, I don't see you backing any of that up with evidence... It is rediculous that you question snowwizzard's opinion this much on this sort of stuff...

[Guest]

Oh yeah TT, have you looked at the overall PNA average since 1950? It is average below 0 now for the first time since the mid 1970's if you don't count a short 2 year period in the late 80's... Before the mid 70's, it was negative for at least a 35 year period... Wouldn't you maybe think we are headed into the negative territory again? Just MAYBE?

[TT-SEA]

Really??

Well in that case we can fire all the people at the NCEP. Snow_Wizzard has it all figured out!!

Give me a break.

Of course I can question him on his predictions.

Nobody has it figured out.

[andrewr]

What EVERYONE is saying is nothing more than a prediction. Maybe Snow_Wizzard has it right and maybe he doesn't. I'm more inclinded to side with those who believe we don't have enough climate records to make accurate predictions based on the past. While I think that there probably are predictable patterns, trying to guess them based on 150 years of records in a climate that has been going on for 100,000+ years isn't going to be very accurate. But like I stated this is my opinion and I know some will disagree.

[AnthonyC]

Honestly, and I'm not dissing anyone, I think looking at past years for an indication of what current/future years will bring is stupid and pointless. You can say one year had a similar winter to another year, yet there are small deviations that make the two winters completely different. So, for example, if you say the winter of 19?? had similar weather to Jan-Feb of 2005 and you are predicting March based on that previous year, I think that's very inaccurate. Let Mother Nature run her course!! Only she can decide.

Snow_Wizzard,

Hey, if it's gonna snow it's gonna snow. Just because I want sun/warm temperatures doesn't mean I'll be disappointed if we get snow. I'm just trying to be realistic...it's March, it's Seattle, it's one of the worst winters in history...does that usually add up to snow?! Nah...but I'm not saying it can't happen. Because it's probably happened before.

Man, I sure hope it's 70F with sunny conditions next week!! I'm getting excited!!

Anthony

Oh yeah, anyone watch 24 last night?! I went over to a friend's house to catch up on last week's episode, but my dad made me come home at 9:30pm so I missed the latter half of this week's episode. What happened?! From what I watched, this week's episode was pretty boring.

[R-Dub]

Well since the sun is rising earlier, that means I have to get up earlier so I am off to bed, have a great night everyone.



3/1/05 LK Goodwin WA
8:23:29 PM CURRENT
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 48.3
Humidity (%) 80.4
Wind (mph) E 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.07
Pressure ("Hg) 29.86
Dew Point: 45.5 ºF

[andycottle]

Looking at the 6z - 18z GFS, along with the Canadain, GEM, and ECMWF....it appears that we`ll have a nice ridge of high pressure building for this weekend and 500MB heights going up 576DM. So...a possible nice weekend on the way. In the extened, hard to pick out any real, long lasting high pressure system, as little mini waves of energy brush us and keeping a 'chance' of showers every few days. Though with high pressure out in the upper Western U.S...and any system that does come aboard, splits and or weakens so much so, that it just gives maybe a dirbble there and there. Over all, probably safe to say there`s a small split in the jet as reason to these systems getting pretty split in two. -- Andy

[Guest]

You are all taking this way out of proportion... I am asking to maybe consider these predictions... I am not saying jump on the band wagon... He has given hard evidence that something is changing though... Just like snowwizzard has said before... You are soo short sighted or small minded or whatever it is called... I believe we are en route to bigger and better things in terms of weather... Better winters mostly with more arctic outbreaks and more anual snowfall.

One other thing, SnowWizzard is not the only one that has the theory about a 30 year warm phase, 30 year cool phase, 30 year warm phase... it is a theory of many scientists who have studied over many years... The last cool phase was between 1945 and 1975... Over that time period the PNA was below average overall for nearly, if not all 30 years... From 1975 to 2003 the PNA overall average was above 0 for the whole period with the exception of a year or so in the late 80's... And now for the first time since the last cold phase, the overall PNA average is below zero... Isn't that along with this WACKED OUT YEAR at least a LITTLE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR? YOU SHORT MINDED, ONE SIDED, BORING SO CALLED (WEATHER LOVERS) are starting to get annoying...

I consider the fact that this MAY NOT BE AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO A COLDER CLIMATE PHASE... but there are more reasons for me to believe that we are switching back than reasons not.

[Cumulonimbus]

OK folks-here is your BIG chance to make a major decision. The Old Farmers Almanac weather forum is back in operation again. So what do you do?? Stay or go?

[Guest]

We have had a 136 pages of serious discussion on here... NO WAY ARE WE LEAVING

[TT-SEA]

I am with Brennan on this one.

I am staying.

Brennan... the 30 year cycle theory does have some merit. I am not saying you guys are wrong. I just think things are not going to go as planned.

[Guest]

Thanks for considering TT... I just don't want everyone to be stuck on staying with this boring climate we have been experiencing for so many years... It's possible that it may continue, but a lot of signs have been popping up that we just might be shifting faces a bit here.

[andycottle]

Looking at the latest GFS tonight, it now appears that a nice BIG ridge of high pressure will be keeping us sunny to partly cloudy...starting on the 5th and lasting through about 12th. Might squeeze a few sprinkels up in the far northern interior this Saturday, but doesn`t look much worth mentioning about. 500MB vorticity heights warm up to 570DM, and then approach 576DM for 9th/10th time frame. Winds at that level appear to be from generally the west at about 15 to near 25kts. 850MB winds are light and South and West at roughly 10 to 15kts. Temps are mild and warm to near +9C by end of next week and heights being in the 1530 to 1560M range. So if things hold up...we could see temps approach the mid 70`s.

-- Andy

[W13]

OK folks-here is your BIG chance to make a major decision. The Old Farmers Almanac weather forum is back in operation again. So what do you do?? Stay or go?

Stay. This board is a lot nicer and well modded compared to the Old farmer's Almanac Forum. Plus, we have already put so much discussion into this thread, why switch again?

[andycottle]

I don`t plan on going anywhere, and will stay where I`m at. As W13 stated....no need to move and start over again. -- Andy

[andrewr]

http://www.king5.com/topstories/stories ... 30e1e.html

Well it looks like it may become official that this is the record year for least snowfall in the mountains.

[R-Dub]

I am staying for sure! Went back to look at the oldfarms forum the other day, and well lets just say a certain inmature person from Omaha that just repeats the same thing over and over again continues to flood the board with not so informative stuff if you know what I mean
Plus I don't care for the layout of that forum.

Anyway Rich Marriot said this morning that the monster ridge that is headed our way looks to stick around through the middle of March!!
Better get the sunglasses and the sunscreen out Since we can't control the weather we might as well enjoy what ever comes our way, and that looks to be the sun

3/2/05 LK Goodwin WA
5:48:20 AM CURRENT
Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 48.9
Humidity (%) 70.1
Wind (mph) SSE 1.3
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.98
Dew Point: 41.3 ºF

[Cumulonimbus]

I have been a member of the board for a long time and I agree it is by far a superior place to discuss weather.

I am sure most of you have seen the March outlook but in case you haven't March is predicted to be..can you guess??.. warmer and drier than normal. Not only March but April and May as well. Either summer will be cool and wet or hot and dry but it won't be normal is my guess.

[Guest]

Well I don't know if I agree with Rich Marriot or the Old Farmers Almanac... I think the ridge may last until about the 12th but shortly after that the pattern shifts back to active and cooler weather... As for the rest of spring being warm and dry I don't agree with that as well... I think this first have of march will be warm/hott and dry but once we hit mid march I think the tables will turn...

[andycottle]

Looking this mornings 6z and 12z GFS....the big ridge of high pressure appaears to last from about 7th all the way through the 12th/13th time frame. 500MB vorticity heights warm to 570DM and then up 576DM for 7th - 10th time period. Looks like it could turn cooler from the 13th onward. -- Andy