Worldwide Tropical Update: 01 March 2005

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 01 March 2005 at 00Z.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Percy (10F/20P) (01/00Z)
Position: 13.2S 165.0W (390 mi ENE of Pago Pago, American Samoa)
Movement: S at 7 mph
Winds: 120 mph
Pressure: 935 mb / 27.61"
Dvorak Est: T5.5/5.5

Shear is now helping to weaken Percy, and this trend will continue over the next few days. Expect faster forward movement with a shift toward the southwest in this timeframe as well.

Tropical Low Noname (12F/98P) (28/21Z)
Position: 11.5S 178.5E (225 mi SSW of Funafuti, Tuvalu)
Movement: ***
Winds: 15 mph
Pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

Although shear is fairly weak and the water temperature is near 86F/30C, detached convection will limit any development over the next couple of day. Regardless, it will still need to be monitored.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), to include official advisories from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers, go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

[HurricaneBill]

Is it me or is the Indian Ocean rather quiet?

[AussieMark]

It is rather quiet this year.

late the 90's and early 00's it was so much more active.

[HurricaneBill]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 01 March 2005 at 00Z.



Shear is now helping to weaken Percy, and this trend will continue over the next few days.

Then again, maybe not.

Yeah, 1993-1994 was a very active year for the SIO. 14 named storms, including Madagascar's "Storm of the Century", Cyclone Geralda. Only 10 years later, Cyclone Gafilo would make landfall stronger than Geralda.

(Geralda was a strong Category 4 at landfall. Gafilo was a Category 5. However, Geralda was stronger than Gafilo over the Indian Ocean.)

Around this time last season, we were up to 6 named storms in the SIO. We've already had 7 this season. In fact, February was a quiet month in the SIO last year as well. So I guess it's business as usual. However, that must mean March is a vulnerable month for Madagascar.

[AussieMark]

between December 1998 and February 2002 the Western Australia coastline was hit by no less than 7 of what u call Major Hurricanes.

5 of which would be a category 4.

1998/99 season

Tropical Cyclone Thelma (4) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... /track.gif

Tropical Cyclone Vance (4) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... /track.gif

Tropical Cyclone Gwenda (3) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... /track.gif

1999/00 season

Tropical Cyclone John (4) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... /track.gif

Tropical Cyclone Rosita (4) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... /track.gif

2000/01 season

Tropical Cyclone Sam (3) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... /track.gif

2001/02 season

Tropical Cyclone Chris (4) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... /track.gif

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 01 March 2005 at 21Z.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Percy (10F/20P) (01/21Z)
Position: 15.3S 165.5W (355 mi E of Pago Pago, American Samoa)
Movement: S at 13 mph
Winds: 150 mph
Pressure: 915 mb / 27.02"
Dvorak Est: T6.5/6.5

After a weakening spell, Percy has overcome and redeveloped into a powerful cyclone. Although the eyewall is showing some signs of warming (thus weakening), strong divergence aloft and little shear will help maintain its current intensity or possible allow for some slight weakening over the next day. As an upper-level trough nears Percy, expect a quicker forward motion to occur.

Tropical Low Noname (12F/98P) (01/21Z)
Position: 14.5S 176.5W (305 mi WSW of Apia, Samoa)
Movement: ***
Winds: 15 mph
Pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

Although shear is fairly weak and the water temperature is near 86F/30C, detached convection will limit any development over the next couple of days. Model guidance is now starting to focus attention to this system and further monitoring will need to occur.

Tropical Low Noname (---/99P) (01/21Z)
Position: 11.0S 168.0E (445 mi NNE of Port Villa, Vanuatu)
Movement: ***
Winds: 15 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

Although shear is fairly weak and the water temperature is near 86F/30C, detached convection will limit any development over the next couple of days. Furthermore, model guidance has not initialized on this system.

Tropical Low Noname (15R/97S) (01/21Z)
Position: 17.0S 87.9E (685 mi SW of Cocos Islands)
Movement: ***
Winds: 15 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

The remnants of TD 15R have continued to weaken. Although MeteoFrance has dropped this system a few days ago, the US Navy continued monitoring it for signs of development. However, the latest from the JTWC is that the system has dissipated and is no longer suspect..

Tropical Low Noname (---/90S) (01/21Z)
Position: 16.5S 42.5E (345 mi SW of Moroni, Comoros)
Movement: ***
Winds: 15 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

Convection associated with this system is occurring near the center of circulation and upper-level divergence is very favorable for development. However, outflow is marginal, it is becoming more favorable, but proximity to land is hindering development. Regardless, it will be monitored over the next few days, as this system will bring gusty winds and rainfall to Madagascar, Mozambique, and Comoros over the next few days.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), to include official advisories from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers, go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

[HurricaneBill]

According to barometric pressure, these western Australian landfalling cyclones would have been classified as Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale:

Cyclone 295 (January 1961) 920 mb

Cyclone Joan (December 1975) 917 mb

Cyclone Amy (January 1980) 915 mb

Cyclone Chris (February 2002) 920 mb

On the Saffir-Simpson scale, a Category 5 hurricane has a barometric pressure of 920 mb or lower. However, a hurricane's category depends on the sustained winds (1 minute average).

BTW, what cyclone is the strongest to hit the east coast of Australia?

[AussieMark]

Cyclone Ada in 1970 was a significant one as was Cyclone Aivu in 1989.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_i ... /track.gif[/img]

[HurricaneBill]

Yeah, I've always had an interest in Australian cyclones.

Here's a list of cyclones I'd consider retired or ought to be:

Cyclone Giselle 1968 (Didn't hit Australia but after undergoing extratropical transition, slammed into New Zealand with sustained winds still above hurricane-force. Killed 56, most on a ship caught in the storm.)

Cyclone Ada 1970

Cyclone Sheila-Sophie 1971 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone Althea 1971

Cyclone Wanda 1974

Cyclone Tracy 1974

Cyclone Trixie 1975 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone Joan 1975 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone Alby 1978

Cyclone Hazel 1979

Cyclone Amy 1980 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone Winifred 1986

Cyclone Aivu 1989

Cyclone Orson 1989 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall; Probably very close to if not a Category 5 on SS scale. Was definitely a SS Category 5 over water. Nicknamed "Awesome Orson".)

Cyclone Joy 1990

Cyclone Bobby 1995

Cyclone Olivia 1996 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone Justin 1997

Cyclone Thelma 1998 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone Vance 1999 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone John 1999 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone Steve 2000

Cyclone Rosita 2000 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone Sam 2000 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

Cyclone Chris 2002 (Category 5 on Australian scale at landfall)

[senorpepr]

I've been meaning to pass on this information here. I mentioned it in the Percy thread, but not here yet.

(I'll get the full 020000 update posted probably after the Talkin' Tropics Show)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Percy (10F/20P) (02/00Z)
Position: 15.7S 165.4W (365 mi ESE of Pago Pago, American Samoa)
Movement: S at 12 mph
Winds: 165 mph
Pressure: 900 mb / 26.58"
Dvorak Est: T7.0/7.0

[Scorpion]

Pressures are much lower in that basin however. I think probably about 20 MB lower. So really a Cat 5 would have to be 900 MB usually.