did anyone save the nwhhc ivan forecast #25

[Derek Ortt]

the one that had the storm forecast to go into new Orleans. For some reason, it is not on the nwhhc archive page, and I do not have a copy of it saved here for reasons that I do not know

[wxman57]

Derek, I found #25 on the NHC archives page. But it doesn't take Ivan to New Orleans. I don't recall any NHC Track taking IVan west of the MS/AL border. And here's a link to the track archive. Nothing toward New Orleans. I'd remember that if the NHC had forecast a New Orleans hit:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IV ... hics.shtml


HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

LAST FIX FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED
THAT THE PRESSURE INCREASED TO 955 MB BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE
STILL 133 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THEN...HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE EYE IS NOT AS
DISTINCT AS EARLIER BUT STILL VISIBLE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
120 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SOME SHEAR AND
WILL BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
HURRICANE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THERE
IS HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER SHEAR. SO...IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING CUBA. NEVERTHERELESS...THESE ARE
BASICALLY FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

SATELLITE AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IVAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...FORCING IVAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 12.7N 66.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 13.3N 68.3W 115 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 14.5N 71.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 16.0N 73.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W 125 KT NEAR JAMAICA
72HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 79.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 22.5N 82.0W 125 KT OVER WESTERN CUBA
120HR VT 13/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W 115 KT

[Brent]

He's talking about his forecast agency, NWHHC

[Derek Ortt]

not the NHC,

I am verifying our Ivan forecasts, and discovered today that I do not have 25 anywhere. It is not a good forecast, but must be included in the verification

[P.K.]

This one?

6 A.M. AST 9/7/2004 HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE #25

This is an independent product

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan is about to move through the Windward Islands. Conditions have already begun to deteriorate significantly in the Islands and will begin to do so in northern Venezuela. All storm preparations should have been completed by now.

The islands at greatest risk appear to be Trinidad, Tobago, St Vincent, as well as the Grenedines. Any of these islands are at risk for a direct hit from Ivan, as is the north coast of Venezuela. Severe flooding may occur in Venezuela from mudslides.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane WARNING for all of the Lesser Antilles from and including Dominica south as well as for the north coast of Venezuela from 61 to 65W including all offshore islands. NWHHC now recommends a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of Venezuela from 65 to 70W, including the ABC Islands. Please remember that these are only recommendations and that the official watches and warnings can be found at the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents of the remainder of the Caribbean also need to closely monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane.

Currently, the eye of Hurricane Ivan is located near 11.4N and 58.7W. This places the eye 120 miles east of Tobago. The motion remains to the west near 18 m.p.h. A track mainly to the west is expected during the next 24-36 hours, bringing the storm through the southern Windward Islands and the north coast of Venezuelain a few hours. After this, a turn to the WNW is expected, bringing the storm into the central and western Caribbean.

Maximum winds remain near 115 m.p.h. The pressure is 965mb. Little change in intensity is expected before impacting the land areas. Ivan is expected to be a dangerous category three hurricane through the Windwards and near South America.

Next Update: 8 A.M.

Forecaster: Ortt

http://www.nwhhc.com/Archives/2004/Atlantic/Updates/2004ivan.html Via Google

Edit- Ah just found the other page. Forecast Number 25 is indeed missing.

Shame it wasn't posted in the thread discusing it. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44567&start=0

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, forecast #25


not sure what happened. Not on the archives page, not in my directory at RSMAS (for which there is no excuse), and if it was on my laptop, it is gone as I had that virus

[kevin]

=(

[Derek Ortt]

still have not been able to locate the forecast.

I could probably reconstruct the track, though it almost certainly would not be like the origional one. I have one other option to recovering the track on Monday, but its a longshot

[Derek Ortt]

and here is the lost forecast

1500 UTC 9/13/2004 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST #25

This is an independent product

Ivan continues to track towards the WNW near 7 kt.
Ivan is approaching the Yucutan Channel and then
should remerge into the Gulf of Mexico within the next
24 hours or so. Global model track forecasts continue
to shift towards the left. Based upon the 500 mb
height data there only appears to be an ever so slight
weakeness in the ridge to Ivan's north in the central
Gulf. This weakness may not be deep enough to attract
Ivan towards it, therfore this track forecast has
shifted even further left of the previous one,
bringing the storm inland in the vicinity of coastal
Louisana in about 3 days.

Ivan is a powerful category 5 hurricane with a large
clear eye, very strong eyewall and well defined
structure. Ivan still may intensify a bit more within
the next 12 hours as it continues to go through
eyewall replacement cycles. Therafter, some weakening
is expected as some vertical shear in the Gulf of
Mexico may disturb Ivan's circulation, however it does
appear the shear may be decreasing, therfore Ivan is
forecasted to be a very powerful major hurricane at
U.S. landfall, which is expected within 3 days.

Initial: 20.4N 84.1W 140KT
12 Hour: 21.6N 85.6W 145KT
24 Hour: 23.3N 87.1W 145KT
36 Hour: 24.6N 88.2W 140KT
48 Hour: 26.5N 89.7W 125KT
72 Hour: 30.4N 90.4W 100KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO
LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 34.4N 85.3W 50KT (inland)
120 Hour: 40.0N 79.7W 20KT (remnant low)

Next Update: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

thanks to Jason Moreland for finding this. Now, we need to figure out how to avoid these large errors in the future

[kevin]

I'm glad you found it Derek!!