Pacific Northwest Weather

[R-Dub]

Snipit from NWS Seattle. Looks like a fairly warm week with only a little rain today and tomarrow night, otherwise it looks like partly sunny, with maybe a shower or two.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 325 AM PST MON FEB 28 2005

THE RAIN WILL LET UP SOME TONIGHT AS THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SECOND APPROACHES. THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL TAKE A BIT MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT...TOSSING UP A PRETTY GOOD SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF IT ON TUE. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF HOLDING UP THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP UNTIL TUE NIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY. ACTUALLY...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD VERY EASILY SEE US BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IF WE WERE TO SEE ANY SUNSHINE...TEMPS WOULD WARM NICELY AND WOULD END UP WITH A RATHER NICE 55 TO 60 DEGREE DAY. THAT WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. RAIN ROLLS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED...WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LEFT FOR WED AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...MODELS ARE COMING UP WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE WEST COAST BEING IN THE AREA OF THE SPLITTING FLOW. THIS IS MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHEN AND IF PRECIP WILL AFFECT THE AREA. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE ATTEMPTING TO TREND BACK TO THE WEST COAST RIDGE POSITION...BUT A FEW TENS OF DEGREE EAST OR WEST HAS A BIG EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. A BIT TO THE WEST...DRY AND NICE...A BIT TO THE EAST AND WEAK SYSTEMS SPREAD PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE DROPPED THE LIKELY WORDING OUT OF THU AND HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THU INTO FRI. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN FLOPPING AROUND THIS TIME PERIOD LAST THREE OR FOUR DAYS...THEY ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE RIDGY SOLUTION WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT A VERY NICE THU AND A DECENT FRI. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING TO A DRY FORECAST. FOR THE WEEKEND...STILL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MOIST SW FLO WITH RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST. BUT RIDGE AXIS CLOSE ENOUGH...SHARP ENOUGH AND HEIGHTS ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT STILL LOOKS GOOD. CERNIGLIA

[TT-SEA]

Brennan... it must be winter then.

When I think of winter in Seattle I think of 70 degree sunshine... eating ice cream wearing shorts and t-shirts and still being warm... windows open at night to let in fresh air... R-Dub getting his boat into the lake... etc.

Yep... winter in Seattle. Nothing but dry, sunny, and warm.

Again... I am sorry that for some reason you are in another dimension up there. Just 4 miles away in Bellingham it was 60 degrees yesterday!!

[andycottle]

Hi folks and good morning!

Looking at the latest GFS, ECMWF, GEM and UKMET model....it would seem they all agree on a ridge of high pressure building up by Friday(4th) of next week and lasting through about the 9th/10th time frame. Then looks like that ridge breaks down for a return to a wetter pattern. 500MB vorticity heights build to around 570DM by the 7th, and last through roughly the 10th. Winds at this height appear 20 to 30kts out of the SSW. And 850MB temps warm to near +9C with Southerly winds of 10 to 20kts and heights of around 1560M. So looks like we could have nice warm days with highs in the 70`s during this time. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Andy... I agree that it looks kind of warm later this week.

Of course the lake that Brennan lives on will be frozen solid until August. Must be a climate similar to the Yukon or northern Alaska up there near Bellingham.

[TT-SEA]

We can't even get a solid rainy, cold day.

The sun is breaking out just to the south of Seattle and should spread north through the afternoon. Giving us some sunbreaks and instability showers with temperatures in the 50's.

Feels good... but we need more rain!!

[snow_wizzard]

Now this is a spring day. Fairly high dew points, a little bit of rain, and temperatures in the 50s (much to my chagrin). It definitely has the spring feel today. Up till now, the air was too dry, and temperatures too low much of the time to have that feel.

I am very disappointed with how today panned out, and it does not look overly promising for any significant rain for a while now (with the possible exception of the next day or two). The models continue to strongly indicate a BIG change in the 12 - 15 day time frame. I sure hope so!

[AnthonyC]

Dude, it was tough getting up for school this morning. Getting up at 5am just doesn't work for me!! lol.

Not a bad day overall...we had some steady rain this morning for two, three hours...but now the clouds are parting and the temperatures are fairly mild...mid 50s. It also feels muggy outside...something you don't see too often in Seattle.

As for the next few days, the forecast continues to change. What once looked like a decent shot of rain Tuesday night and again Thursday, has really fizzled out. We will probably get one more batch of rain Tuesday night, but then another ridge builds in Wednesday and stays through Saturday. A cold front stalls off the Washington coast, so we will have to wait and see.

And then the extended...every model points in the same direction...monster ridge over the west. 500 mb heights approach 575 by the beginning of next week. Since it's still only the beginning of March and with a lower sun angle, I won't buy afternoon high temperatures in the 70s...but definitely in the 60s.

We desperately need some mountain snow, but none is on the way for the forseeable future...I think the ski resorts can throw their hats in for the season.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Not a bad day today at all!! Had about 1.5hrs of steady light rain this morning, but now its partly sunny and breezy. Really smells fresh outside again. We had .06" of rainfall, not much at all. Even when we were getting the light rain this morning, it was still bright out, defintaily felt like a spring day.

Anthony, I can't believe your school has a zero period that starts that early that you need to get up at 5:00AM. That is just wrong forcing kids to get up that early!!!

For me though, 5:00AM will be sleeping in. I have to be at work a half hr before daybreak in the winter, and an hour before daybreak in the summer. So typically my alarm goes off around 3:30AM in the summer, or sooner if we have a tournament going on at the golf course. really hard to get to sleep at 8:00PM when its still light out, and its warm so I half to have a window open, so I hear kids playing, and boats still running around on the lake. I don't function on anything less then 7hrs of sleep anymore though. Seems like as soon as I hit 25yrs old, I just couldn't go without sleep like I used to do. Its a pain getting old


2/28/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:04:20 PM CURRENT
Partly Cloudy
Temperature (ºF) 54.1
Humidity (%) 63.9
Wind (mph) SSE 0.7
Daily Rain (") 0.06
Pressure ("Hg) 29.94
Dew Point: 43.2 ºF

[R-Dub]

Clouds increasing now, looks like a good shot of rain not far away now looking at the radar.

[snow_wizzard]

It just dawned on me....We are going to have a problem when winter is over. Our thread will be obsolete, and we will have to start all over again. That will really suck.

The 12z ensemble gives me some real hope for this month to get more exciting. This sequence shows how the ridge will move northwestward and leave us wide open to a cool zonal flow in the 12 - 15 day period.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 22812.html

It even hints at some northern branch cold air being injected into the westerly flow...a great scenario for heavy mountain snows! Also keep in mind...El Nino is DEAD!

[TT-SEA]

Yes... it will be a good month when all is said and done.

VERY spring-like day today... cooler and more damp than the last few days. Here in North Bend we have stepped back from the edge of summer!!

The real question is... with his frozen lakes and winter wonderland up there... how much snow did Brennan have at his house today??

I am guessing 6 inches. The lake is now probably frozen to the bottom.

I figure if he has such a frozen wasteland up there while we had 70 degree weather... when have 55 degrees it must be downright frigid there.

[AnthonyC]

Things have really changed the past hour. Steady rain with some gusty winds...we had a decent rain squall travel through. Temperature has also cooled a couple of degrees.

I already miss the sun and warm temperatures!! lol. Hopefully they return pretty quick.

R-Dub...1st period starts at 7am...0 period starts at 6:15am...so I'm forced to leave at 5:55am for school. It sucks...but we have to do it!! lol. One good thing...school's over at 1:30pm...pretty early.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

We just had a very intense cell move over head here in the LK Goodwin area!! The rainfall was the most intense I have seen in a very long time, with sustained winds of probably up to 35-40MPH!!! WOW!!! Lasted only about 5 min though. Tried to take a few pics but all turned out very dark, not enough light. Also temp dropped 10 degrees in 3 minutes. Now currently 45.7 degrees!!! That was AWESOME

[andrewr]

Snow_Wizzard, if you still want cold it's not too late. Barrow's forecasted high is -30 on Thursday with a low of -35 :)

[snow_wizzard]

Andrew...That is good news. They have hardly been that cold all winter. I still think we are going to see things change big time later this month. It would be nothing to see a little bit of wet snow still. Years like this can have snow even in April.

[snow_wizzard]

R-Dub...I knew you still wanted to see some weather. It is nice to see some unexpected excitement today.

[Guest]

Very Funny TT I am laughing... Actually not really... You say just 4 miles away in Bellingham there was a high of 60 degrees yesturday... Well just the same, 4 miles away in Bellingham they also had a low of 28... Now today is Spring like... High temps even here are in the middle 50's with mostly cloudy skies and some wind... This is more spring like...

Well since you are in your 30's I am going to start taking you seriously now...

I am not sure what you are talking about with 6 inches of snow up here in Bellingham that is a pretty dumb assumption... Same with the lake, it's actually melting now so your prediction of it being frozen the the bottom is crazy, where did you come up with that anyways?

I never said it wasn't getting warm in the daytime too... I didn't say I am in a winter wonderland... And to top that.. the low out here by the lake the last few nights has been 3-5 degrees warmer than in Bellingham... So i guess it isn't so winter wonderland after all up here.

[Guest]

TT, you have been the only one saying that I live in a winter wonderland... I have only said I have frost all day and the highs don't make it out of the 40's... But we havn't had frost since thursday or friday... And yes it still is winter no matter what way you put it.. WINTER...

[Guest]

The first time we have a high below 65 this coming July, I am going to make it clear that winter is obviously coming early... People wearing warm jackets, heating their fire places, stirring hot cocoa, and breaking out their long jons and taking their boats out of the water...

[Guest]

TT you also have been the warmest spot out of all of western washington pretty much... So to say that I am in a cold microclimate means that I could say you are in a warm microclimate? or does that not work for you?