Virginia/Maryland Winter Storm thread

#81 Postby **USCG_Hurricane_Watcher** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:32 pm

Extonpa...Rain for DC?? Out of curiosity, what is that assessment based on? Again, I'm not a met and don't pretend to be, I'm just curious...

:?:

krysof · #82 Postby **krysof** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:33 pm

he's just angry that he might not get hit with it or get hit hard, he says the gfs shifted westward, but it looks almost exactly like the 12z plus the 18z is less accurate than the 12z and 0z, and the Nam finally has the storm offshore, but it hugs the coast, the Nam is getting better and better, by 0z or 6z it should be perfectly aligned with the others

#83 Postby **USCG_Hurricane_Watcher** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:42 pm

Thanks...I'm trying to plan some quick u/w time to bring some boats around from Eastern Shore...just trying to get as accurate a wx assessment as possible. TWC is not an option and the local MD mets all vary in their forecasts...Storm2K is my last resort as usual.

I'd much rather deal with the snow than cold, driving rain - less topside freezing that way.

Thanks again.

Heatseeker · #84 Postby **Heatseeker** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:43 pm

I'm in Denton MD - the R/S line will probably be about 15 miles north of me. Life stinks. :cry:

#85 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 8:43 pm

32.5 degrees at 8:40 p.m. No doubt about having enough cold air at the surface, at least for the onset of the event.

LWX backing the onset of snow until around 4 a.m. for D.C. so around 2 here in Fredericksburg.

EXTONPA · #86 Postby **EXTONPA** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 8:43 pm

late last night the GFS was predicting a snowstorm for parts central NC, especially mountains areas in the west. Look at map right now: a major rainstorm, no snow to be found.....storm is warmer than predicted; cold air mass over Northeast, especially with regard to northern mid-atlantic, not that cold; storm hugging the coast will pump in enough warm air to prevent major snowstorm in I95 corridor. If an artic air mass had been entrenched in this area things would be different; there would be a prolonged period of snow, before any mixed precip occurred. Looking at the current pattern, DC may receive ONLY rain....my prediction is winter storm warnings dropped for many areas by mid night.

#87 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 8:47 pm

EXTONPA wrote:late last night the GFS was predicting a snowstorm for parts central NC, especially mountains areas in the west. Look at map right now: a major rainstorm, no snow to be found.....storm is warmer than predicted; cold air mass over Northeast, especially with regard to northern mid-atlantic, not that cold; storm hugging the coast will pump in enough warm air to prevent major snowstorm in I95 corridor. If an artic air mass had been entrenched in this area things would be different; there would be a prolonged period of snow, before any mixed precip occurred. Looking at the current pattern, DC may receive ONLY rain....my prediction is winter storm warnings dropped for many areas by mid night.

Are you even talking about the same storm?

#88 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:10 pm

Already down to 31.8 at 9:07, total overcast for several hours now.

EXTONPA · #89 Postby **EXTONPA** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:26 pm

I think Syracuse NY is in the bullseye for this storm

Jrodd312 · #90 Postby **Jrodd312** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:27 pm

EXTONPA wrote:I think Syracuse NY is in the bullseye for this storm

Have you been watching TWC? If the weather channel uses the GFS then why hasnt kocin said anything? He still thinks that philly and nyc will see 6-12 and dc 6-10. So i dont know what is wrong with you but.

#91 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:29 pm

Just ignore him.

Jrodd312 · #92 Postby **Jrodd312** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:30 pm

Lowpressure wrote:Just ignore him.

Im trying its just hard hes clogging up the board with his WRONG forecasts.

fasteddy77 · #93 Postby **fasteddy77** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:32 pm

I wouldn't say it's the wrong forecast... That's just what he thinks is going to happen.

The best part about this forum is that we're all here giving our thoughts...

#94 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:34 pm

Jrodd312 wrote:
Lowpressure wrote:Just ignore him.
Im trying its just hard hes clogging up the board with his WRONG forecasts.

He can have his opinion. The fact that he is acting this way should not curve everyone elses fascination with this event. Keep discussing facts and observations and forecast that have merit. This COULD be life threatening for some as it unfolds. Accuracy is key.

EXTONPA · #95 Postby **EXTONPA** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 10:35 pm

appears the radar data are inaccurate regarding precip type over VA: My forcast may go down the drain as a result...

DS · #96 Postby DS » Sun Feb 27, 2005 10:59 pm

the new GFS is quite a bit further east and weaker with the coastal storm. I hope those northeast forecasters are still optimistic but this one looks like its out to sea without much of a fight

RestonVA · #97 Postby **RestonVA** » Sun Feb 27, 2005 10:59 pm

EXTONPA wrote:My forcast may go down the drain as a result...

You just came to that conclusion? The numbers you posted earlier just totally don't/didn't make sense to me, and I'm not sure where you were getting them from. Time will tell I guess.

EXTONPA · #98 Postby **EXTONPA** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 12:03 am

It intially appeared to me that warm air was getting wrapped in to the eastern side of the storm, i.e., overall VA. However, this was a mistake in the radar, it appears cold area may be pumped in with track far enough east to allow this...

Ed Spacer · #99 Postby **Ed Spacer** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:35 am

Guys,what are you panicked about?HEAVY SNOW warning for Baltimore and DC just issued- and 8-12 AT LEAST for my spot and phila,with NO CHANGEOVER.

EXTONPA · #100 Postby **EXTONPA** » Mon Feb 28, 2005 4:00 am

by by snowstorm baltimore, Philly

Virginia/Maryland Winter Storm thread

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