Virginia/Maryland Winter Storm thread

[yoda]

I'm getting very depressed. It looks like we're going to be screwed once again here in the Shenandoah Valley.

Don't worry... you are still in the game!

[arlwx]

TV 4 was pointing out the split between the models, the snow to rain of the NAM or the solid pile of snow the GFS is promising, but is moving into the snow camp.

Channel 11 also admitted they were relying on the model majority to think about snow of maybe 6 inches, or maybe even more, but said the forecast could change.

The TWC forecaster on WTOP 1500 also said the forecast had changed, and jumped onto the 4-7 inches for DC trend.

8 am additions:

Channel 5 called for a generic 4-8 inches west of I-95, with some snow and sleet to the east of I-95, but admitted they didn't yet know if people would get 2-3 inches or as much as 9-10 inches.

Channel 9 went for snow north and west of DC, with a snow/rain mix south and east.

Channel 7 went with 4-8 inches, but called for an all-snow event for DC.

Channel 13 in Baltimore called for 1-3 inches then rain from the Baltowash western suburbs east, 4-10 inches for the piedmont and mountains and maybe over 10 inches for far western MD
(one of the last still holding onto the NAM).

We'll see what they say between 6 and 7 pm.

[Lowpressure]

All channels will be jumping today with a major snowstorm on our doorsteps and Sunday staffing at the T.V. stations. NWS will be scrolling watches or warnings to help inform public.

[Fodie77]

All channels will be jumping today with a major snowstorm on our doorsteps and Sunday staffing at the T.V. stations. NWS will be scrolling watches or warnings to help inform public.

Yeah, one of the things I love about winter in this area is how crazy the media gets over it. You can definitely expect all of the weekday DC mets in today. (Bob Ryan, Topper Shutt-the best IMO, Doug Hill, and Sue Palka)

[Lowpressure]

Prefer Ryan myself, he has better graphics and model animation.

[Fodie77]

Prefer Ryan myself, he has better graphics and model animation.

Really? I always thought Topper had the better graphics. That, and how can you beat the Topper Shutt-Tony Pann storm duo!? I remember back to PDII in February 2003 Bob Ryan said 36 hours out that the storm wouldn't be a big event, Topper said it would be. I guess we know who won that one! I never really cared for Doug Hill though. Hmmm, I better end this post before I start looking like too much of a nerd.

[Lowpressure]

They are both pretty good, Topper is more accurate. I like the timeline feature on Ryans animation.

[RestonVA]

Topper's the man, I can't stand any of the Channel 4 weather people.

[Lowpressure]

Wow!! it is on in Northern Virginia and Maryland, true monster looks to be in the cards. Supermarkets are crazy. Locally looks to be 10+ depending where banding and forcing set up. This is going to be a wild ride. Hang on and keep the posts coming in. Tomorrow will be crazy. I will keep info coming in from Fredericksburg. I am to be in D.C. tomorrow for work in my Alexandria and Manassas branches.

[RestonVA]

LP, have you been paying any attention to what Exton has been saying? If that's the case you can stick a fork in Northern VA. WC has also dropped the totals from around 6-12 to 4-7. Why must this happen, why?

[DS]

A few observations...

The storm is currently just of the west florida coast with a SLP of 996-997 mb. This is 3 to 6 mb lower than 18 Z model predictions at the H + 2 hour!! This is a significant error. Also, I just ran a loop of the NAM's SLP map and it seemed like there was too much of a NW turn right around the GA coast. My guess- I like the UKMET. It follows the gulf stream a lot more and just barely brushes the big cities with significant snows.

[Lowpressure]

LP, have you been paying any attention to what Exton has been saying? If that's the case you can stick a fork in Northern VA. WC has also dropped the totals from around 6-12 to 4-7. Why must this happen, why?

It is normal when some are to get much snow and others are not, the posts get crazy. No one is sure where the line of demarcation will set up. Be glad you don't hear the word rain or mixing. 5 days ago this was a rainstorm for us according to many. It is and will be a big snowmaker for I-95 cities. LWX still has Fredericksburg totals around 10 inches.

[Lowpressure]

Lets keep this in perspective. If you only get 4-7 inches of snow, that is a nice storm. Like I said, it was a rainstorm 5 days ago, so be happy with 4-7, you might do better.

[spartyinmd]

FYI...Oakton,VA is still being reported at 7-12 according to WC online.

[Lowpressure]

FYI...Oakton,VA is still being reported at 7-12 according to WC online.

Thanks for the update, see, it will be a bunch of snow for most of the area. Some will get more, a lot more, and some will get less. Banding and forcing will be huge here.

[spartyinmd]

Since I work for NWS I know exactly what you mean LP. I am watching all of the latest runs and am calling Sterling ever so often. I work at the HQ office Silver SPring so we get to make fun of the people at Sterling all the time when they mess up . It is still lokking like a HUGE event in DC. In fact they may be low balling this a bit as far as the people I have talked to are concerned.

[FlyPC12]

Glad I found this site with other snow hounds!!!<P>
It's been a long wait in central VA for a storm like this - I hope it pans out.<P>
My only concern - I just flew in from the north and descending over the Blue Ridge there was a noticeable inversion; you could physcially see it and OAT was corrected to about 1C at 7000 ft. Hopefully when the precip falls we'll get some cooling in the column. A sleet and slopstorm is no fun...

[spartyinmd]

WC at top of the hour has DC Metro in 6-12 with locally 12+. Seems like that is the thinking right now. Only about a hour or less til the new mods come out.

[EXTONPA]

it will be almost ll rain in DC and Baltimore.....almost guarunteed

[Lowpressure]

it will be almost ll rain in DC and Baltimore.....almost guarunteed

Yeah, we have heard your forecast, back it up with something that everyone else is missing please, otherwise it is getting a bit annoying. You are the only one anywhere talking rain, if you see something we do not please share some insight. Yesterday when it was suppose to hit you, it was snow.