What categorie cane would you ride out?

[Lindaloo]

I know and is why I do not stay anymore. I would rather be safe than sorry.

Had Ivan not made that turn my home would have been flooded and everyone else south of HWY 90 here in Pascagoula. A mandetory evac was issued for EVERYONE south of hwy 90. This is the second time they issued that other than with Camille. There were alot of people who heeded the warning, which surprised me. When the police go neighborhood to neighborhood telling people to get out you take them seriously. I assure you most were shocked by that.

I had a policeman stop by my home at 10 PM that night asking me why I was still there. That is when I left. No problems heading up 65 to 85. A slight delay getting home.

[x-y-no]

Had Ivan not made that turn my home would have been flooded and everyone else south of HWY 90 here in Pascagoula. A mandetory evac was issued for EVERYONE south of hwy 90.

Being in a flood zone changes everything. No way would I stay in a flood area in any serious storm. I'd be gone before the mandatory evac.

That's why I said I'd button up my place and head for my parents' in a major. I'm on the 4th floor at home, but the area can flood. My parents are much further inland.

[Lindaloo]

I am not considered a flood zone, which is why it was such a shock and scary for them to issue the mandetory evac.

[depotoo]

how far inland are you lindaloo?

[Lindaloo]

About a mile and a half. I have flood insurance, even though I am not required to carry it.

[MGC]

I would stay for a 3. A 5? Come on.....I think only Pass Chistian observed true cat 5 conditions during Camille. Bay St Louis probably saw high end cat 4 conditions since they were on the "weak" side of Camille. Long Beach to Gulfport saw cat 4 conditions while Biloxi saw cat 3 conditions. Flying debris might just knock a hole in your house thus opening it up to the wind. I'd stay in a concreet building reinforced with rebar for a cat 5.....MGC

[cajungal]

Long Beach, Mississippi received category 5 conditions during Camille. I have the book on Camille that I purchased at a gift shop there. The wind speed in Long Beach was estimated at close to 200 mph. They are located only 6 miles east of Pass Christian. My grandmother used to live in Long Beach. She lived in an apartment complex right next door to St. Thomas Catholic Church that was destroyed during Camille. But, she did not live on the MS coast during Camille. She lived in Cut Off, Louisiana at the time. She just moved to MS a few years ago with my uncle who is stationed in the Navy Seabees.

[Ixolib]

I would stay for a 3. A 5? Come on.....I think only Pass Chistian observed true cat 5 conditions during Camille. Bay St Louis probably saw high end cat 4 conditions since they were on the "weak" side of Camille. Long Beach to Gulfport saw cat 4 conditions while Biloxi saw cat 3 conditions. Flying debris might just knock a hole in your house thus opening it up to the wind. I'd stay in a concreet building reinforced with rebar for a cat 5.....MGC

I believe you'd have plenty of argument with many in this town over that assumption. The "CAT 5" winds you speak of in the Pass were near 190+mph. The "CAT 5" winds we experienced here in Biloxi were easily 155+mph. I can gurantee they were not maxed at 130mph....

[MGC]

Cajungal and Ixolib, no way Biloxi had cat 5 winds from Camille. Camille's circulation was not that big. Camille was a compact hurricane with a steep pressure gradient. Heck, I could write a book and claim Pascagoula had cat 5 winds from Camille. Camille's Cat 5 winds were located within the eyewall and Camille didn't have a huge eye only 8 or so miles wide as I recall.

Camille's bigest destructive force was her surge. Water pushed by hurricane force winds will cause incredible destruction. Plus, I'm sure once Camille is reanalysed her maxium winds will be reduced. Hurricanes in the 60's maxium winds were over estimated....MGC

[Ixolib]

Cajungal and Ixolib, no way Biloxi had cat 5 winds from Camille. Camille's circulation was not that big. Camille was a compact hurricane with a steep pressure gradient. Heck, I could write a book and claim Pascagoula had cat 5 winds from Camille. Camille's Cat 5 winds were located within the eyewall and Camille didn't have a huge eye only 8 or so miles wide as I recall.

Camille's bigest destructive force was her surge. Water pushed by hurricane force winds will cause incredible destruction. Plus, I'm sure once Camille is reanalysed her maxium winds will be reduced. Hurricanes in the 60's maxium winds were over estimated....MGC

So, you actually believe that a distance of only 22 miles to the west - along a straight beachfront with nothing but water and no land masses in between - will diminish the wind speed from 190+ to 130mph??? I'll agree that the max winds were in the eye wall, as they are in any storm. But Camille's max winds were well above a minimal CAT 5. Proportionately speaking, 155 was easily experienced in Biloxi.

[MGC]

First off, I don't think Camille had sustained winds of 190mph at landfall. Like I said before, maxium wind speed in hurricanes back then were overestimated. I would guess a landfall maxium of 170mph. Just look at the wind field of Hurricane Charley this summer. Captivia Island had the eye wall of Charley pass over while Sanibel 10 or so miles to the south much lower winds. Hurricane Andrew's wind field is another good example, just up the road in say Ft Lauderdale winds were a couple of cats lower. Sorry, but Camille didn't have a Cat 5 wind field of over 20 miles. It would be impossible. Camille would have to have undergone a period of rapid intensification prior to landfall. The 901mb pressure the recon reported would have had to dropped another 20mb for Biloxi to have Cat 5 sustainted winds 20+ miles removed from landfall. Granted, the recon report was several hours old and who knows what landfall pressure was. I suggest you PM Dereck Ott as he has a good knowledge of pressure/wind relationships.....MGC

[Lindaloo]

Cajungal and Ixolib, no way Biloxi had cat 5 winds from Camille. Camille's circulation was not that big. Camille was a compact hurricane with a steep pressure gradient. Heck, I could write a book and claim Pascagoula had cat 5 winds from Camille. Camille's Cat 5 winds were located within the eyewall and Camille didn't have a huge eye only 8 or so miles wide as I recall.

Camille's bigest destructive force was her surge. Water pushed by hurricane force winds will cause incredible destruction. Plus, I'm sure once Camille is reanalysed her maxium winds will be reduced. Hurricanes in the 60's maxium winds were over estimated....MGC

I was too young to remember what winds Pascagoula received but I do remember the aftermath and what Pascagoula was like, plus pics that were taken by my parents and family. I assure you, I have not seen damage like that again, even from Frederic and Elena.

If you recall MGC, there was a wind gauge that was broken by Camille. I believe the gauge was stuck a little bit past 190 MPH. Surely you do not believe a wind gauge would be innaccurate.

[MGC]

Well Linda, I've been around weather instruments quiet a bit and I can never recall seeing an wind guage with the ability to record 190mph winds. Most wind guages break long before they record a gust of that magnitude. 35 years removed and how well did the wind guages hold up during Ivan?.

I'm not trying to downplay Camille's signifance she was a kick @$$ hurricane.....MGC

[Cookiely]

I said I would stay for a Cat 5. I am located in Hillsborough County apx. 30 minutes from GOM. I am outside the mandatory evacuation zones. If I was told to evacuate I would, otherwise I will remain at home. I derive emotional security and comfort from my home which I wouldn't get staying at a hotel. I certainly don't do well in difficult driving situations and who needs a migraine in a crisis situation.

[Lindaloo]

Well Linda, I've been around weather instruments quiet a bit and I can never recall seeing an wind guage with the ability to record 190mph winds. Most wind guages break long before they record a gust of that magnitude. 35 years removed and how well did the wind guages hold up during Ivan?.

I'm not trying to downplay Camille's signifance she was a kick @$$ hurricane.....MGC

Thanks for the info. I am not well versed in that type of stuff as far as the gauges are concerned. Just going by what I read.

I agree, Camille was a bad girl.

[wxman57]

This poll surfaced last year, and I see the same basic flaws in most of your thinking. The question "what category would your ride out" makes a VERY BIG assumption. It assumes that you are able to accurately predict the intensity of a hurricane several days out (when you'll have to make the decision to evacuate). But as we saw with Charley last year, hurricanes can strengthen several categories in just 6-12 hours. Fortunately, Charley's area of Cat 4 winds was only a few miles across.

Let's say you're in New Orleans and a Category 1 hurricane enters the Gulf by the Yucatan. It's moving NW at 15 mph and you have about 48 hours from landfall, which is projected to be near Lake Charles to Lafayette. It takes a good 36-48 hours to evacuate New Orleans, so what do you do? You say you'll ride out a Category 1 in New Orleans, so if it turns more to the north and hits New Oreans, you think you'll be fine. The next day, the hurricane strengthens unexpectedly, as did Charley, to a strong Category 3 with 125 mph wind. Now you have 24 hours until the outer bands hit New Orleans. Evacuation orders are given, but it's too late to get out. If you get on the road 24 hrs. before landfall you'll still be there when the storm hits. You'll likely be killed. That Cat 1 is now a strengthening Cat 3 and New Orleans is getting hit by the "big one".

So this poll question is inherently flawed in assuming that intensity forecasts are perfect. They're not. So you'd better treat every single tropical cyclone as if it has the potential to rapidly intensify prior to landfall (unless there is certainty about high wind shear affecting the storm before landfall). That may mean evacuating a death trap like New Orleans for a tropical storm 2 days out. Either that, or you'd better be the first one on the road when the TS becomes a strengthening hurricane 24 hours out.

[Cookiely]

This poll surfaced last year, and I see the same basic flaws in most of your thinking. The question "what category would your ride out" makes a VERY BIG assumption. It assumes that you are able to accurately predict the intensity of a hurricane several days out (when you'll have to make the decision to evacuate). But as we saw with Charley last year, hurricanes can strengthen several categories in just 6-12 hours. Fortunately, Charley's area of Cat 4 winds was only a few miles across.

Let's say you're in New Orleans and a Category 1 hurricane enters the Gulf by the Yucatan. It's moving NW at 15 mph and you have about 48 hours from landfall, which is projected to be near Lake Charles to Lafayette. It takes a good 36-48 hours to evacuate New Orleans, so what do you do? You say you'll ride out a Category 1 in New Orleans, so if it turns more to the north and hits New Oreans, you think you'll be fine. The next day, the hurricane strengthens unexpectedly, as did Charley, to a strong Category 3 with 125 mph wind. Now you have 24 hours until the outer bands hit New Orleans. Evacuation orders are given, but it's too late to get out. If you get on the road 24 hrs. before landfall you'll still be there when the storm hits. You'll likely be killed. That Cat 1 is now a strengthening Cat 3 and New Orleans is getting hit by the "big one".

So this poll question is inherently flawed in assuming that intensity forecasts are perfect. They're not. So you'd better treat every single tropical cyclone as if it has the potential to rapidly intensify prior to landfall (unless there is certainty about high wind shear affecting the storm before landfall). That may mean evacuating a death trap like New Orleans for a tropical storm 2 days out. Either that, or you'd better be the first one on the road when the TS becomes a strengthening hurricane 24 hours out.

I appreciate your advice and thoughts on the topic. I have a question. With Hillsborough County having such a large population, if your not asked to evacuate, should you evacuate. It just seems it would multiply the problems on the road for those having to evacuate, if the ones also left that didn't. And just like last year, when the storm seemed like a direct hit on Tampa, and the population went to Orlando and got hit harder than if they would have stayed home. Unless you go out of state, there is no certainty that you will be able to avoid the storm. And lets not even mention the people who don't have the money for gas and lodging which brings up the terrible situation with our shelters not being safe.

[Lindaloo]

Long Beach, Mississippi received category 5 conditions during Camille. I have the book on Camille that I purchased at a gift shop there. The wind speed in Long Beach was estimated at close to 200 mph. They are located only 6 miles east of Pass Christian. My grandmother used to live in Long Beach. She lived in an apartment complex right next door to St. Thomas Catholic Church that was destroyed during Camille. But, she did not live on the MS coast during Camille. She lived in Cut Off, Louisiana at the time. She just moved to MS a few years ago with my uncle who is stationed in the Navy Seabees.

The ONLY building left standing in Gulfport (beachfront) after Camille was the First Baptist Church (still there). The Church is right across from the Gulf.

[cajungal]

Cajungal and Ixolib, no way Biloxi had cat 5 winds from Camille. Camille's circulation was not that big. Camille was a compact hurricane with a steep pressure gradient. Heck, I could write a book and claim Pascagoula had cat 5 winds from Camille. Camille's Cat 5 winds were located within the eyewall and Camille didn't have a huge eye only 8 or so miles wide as I recall.

Camille's bigest destructive force was her surge. Water pushed by hurricane force winds will cause incredible destruction. Plus, I'm sure once Camille is reanalysed her maxium winds will be reduced. Hurricanes in the 60's maxium winds were over estimated....MGC

I never said Biloxi. I said Long Beach. If Camille's eye was 8 miles wide, Long Beach had Cat 5 conditions. Long Beach is only 6 miles east of Pass Christian. I have documents on the storm. Long Beach received winds close to 200 mph with gusts up to 210. Long Beach was almost totally wiped out. And Gulfport is only 2 miles further than that. And I know 2 miles did not make that much of a difference with a storm as powerful as Camille. I was not even close to being born for Camille, but I studied up on her for years. And being only 2 and half hour drive away from the MS coast, I go at least twice a year.

[melhow]

Depends if it was going to hit north or south of me...

North or direct hit up the mouth of Tampa Bay, I'm outta here it it's a Cat 2 or higher.

South, uhhh, maybe I'd stick around up till a Cat 4.

I sit about 3 miles inland from the Gulf just north of St. Pete. While I don't *think* that the wind from a Cat 2 or 3 would be significant enough to damage my home, I have no interest in becoming a resident of the island nation of Pinellas County, which is what the surge would basically do to my area if a rainy slow-moving Cat 2 or higher (maybe even a Cat 1) hit in or north of Tampa Bay.

While this scenerio is fun to ask, the big problem with asking it can be summed up in one word. Charley. We had no idea where he was headed, and no one expected his intensity to shift like it did, or as QUICKLY as it did. I SAY that I would leave, but I didn't budge during Charley, and we thought he was going to be a direct hit up until the last hour and a half of his over-water lifespan. I talk all big like I would go, but when it came down to it, I stayed.

The big question in our house now is if we do leave when the next big storm has a bead on us, where do we go? All of those poor folks who evacuated Pinellas county only to be hit in their evac zones out in Polk or Osceola or Kissimmee....I bet this season that a lot of people around here will have those images fresh in their minds and will probably stay put, even if the storm looks bad.