Lots of "white rain"--watch called very late!

[Persepone]

I edited original subject which was "No watch or warning for Cape Cod."

They should have at least put out some type of memo, advisory or something... Original post follows below.

This is interesting... I do not quite understand the NWS criteria for issuing storm watchings and warnings.

I'd be very interested in hearing from professional mets who can help me to understand why we often have no official warnings from NWS (and often of other sources as well) until storms actually hit. The media follow this--and it is not uncommon for them to be telling us on TV that we won't get something that we can see out the window!

According to everything I am reading, we are going to get some type of severe winter weather Monday-Wednesday here on Cape Cod.

The question is whether it is snow, rain, freezing rain, etc. or some combination of the above. But no matter what it is, it looks as if it is going to be nasty weather. Driving may be hazardous, there may be power outages (what else is old here on Cape Cod??) and it probably is not a good time to plan to be out if it can be avoided.

When storm watches, warnings are posted, people do prepare for storms--especially our large population of elderly winter residents. They buy groceries, etc. so they can be "snowbound." But when the watches don't go up, then they venture out, fall on the ice and break things. (When we first moved here our elderly neighbor fell on the ice and broke bones which 6 years later have not healed completely because she had no warning of the storm and ran out of cat food!).

Here's the NWS logic for not posting anything for Cape Cod. Does it make sense? Perhaps from a "legal" sense it does, but from a human sense it does not... Bold in quotation below is mine.

Area forecast discussion...updated marine section
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
630 am EST sun Feb 27 2005


Short term (today through tonight)...
gradient between departing surface wave and building ridge to produce
sunny/partly sunny skies along with a locally gusty northwest wind today.
Cirrus shield moves in from the SW tonight with overcast skies by daybreak out
ahead of the potent storm heading NE from the NE Gulf of Mexico.


Followed mav maximum mins first two periods and probability of precipitation none as well.


Long term (monday through saturday)...
after much discussion west/neighbors and hpc - much of County Warning Area will be in a
Winter Storm Watch with this issuance. Basic GFS solution - albeit
perhaps a bit too far S/east - is the solution being followed up the East
Coast. This is a colder solution and places not only the interior
but the I-95 metropolitan corridor at risk for significant snow late
Monday PM through Tuesday am.


Some observations - first the deep closed low rolling through Labrador
gets itself position to aid in upper level confluence which aids in the
horsecollar surface high appearance from the upper Midwest to southeast
Quebec. Result - perhaps locking in cold air longer and closer to the
shore. But also noted development of cooling tops/lightning and
convection over the Gulf. How this convection manifests itself in
the storm evolution is the wild card. One option which leads to our
reluctance to place cape/islands in a watch is that it could lead to
a deeper system tucked in closer to the coast - ie - a bit warmer
solution than Ops GFS. GFS ensm members showing confidence in a 980
low between 40n/70w and tan around 06z Tuesday - spread is much less in low
position than past 2 nights - now basically with one family tracking
center across Rhode Island/southeast Massachusetts and a second clustered between ack and 39n/70w.


Expect snow to arrive across Connecticut by midday Monday...then
quickly pushing northeast reaching into southern New Hampshire late
in the afternoon. Expect the snow to continue through the night...
then begin to taper off to snow showers from south to north during
Tuesday.


With this track...have gone with a Winter Storm Watch for our entire
County Warning Area except for Cape Cod...Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard...where a
change over to rain is likely at this point. Also expect some
mixture with rain Monday night over southeastern Massachusetts...but
still could see moderate snow accumulations before the mix.


Beyond this...have stuck close to the 00z Ops GFS solution with the
lakes low moving into northern New England. That...along with the
developing cutoff h500 hpa low over the northeast...this will keep
the region with lots of instability clouds and scattered snow
showers going through Tuesday night and Wednesday. As the low
finally pushes further into the Maritimes...will end the chance of
precipitation...though will keep a slight chance going for the north
and west zones into Thursday with the continued cyclonic upper flow.


Have gone with a dry forecast for the remainder of the week...as
high pressure builds across the Great Lakes toward the Middle Atlantic
States as the blocking high remains over Greenland...keeping the
region in a below normal temperature regime. Skies will generally
be partly-mostly cloudy through the end of next week due to
continued cold...unstable flow.
':roll:' ':roll:'

It is Sunday. The sun is shining. When are they planning to tell people here that a storm is coming? (By the way, many elderly have only "Basic Cable" which means they get 3 PBS channels, a couple of religious channels, and about 6 broadcast stations--but only Boston and RI weather... No Weather Channel, etc.)

[BlizzzardMan]

I'm no professional Met. but I'm sure you'll get one real soon. There's been so much uncertainty with this storm that I've noticed that they've waited a little longer than usual to start posting watches. Usually, with a storm of this magnitude, they start posting watches a day and a half to two days away. We finally got a watch here in Pittsburgh early this morning and it's supposed to start snowing later on tonight.

[EXTONPA]

yep, you should be getting warning etc soon...ALTHOUGH, this may be mostly a rain event for you

[Persepone]

Well, it is 2:30 p.m. and the sky is cloudy, there is an occasional flake, barometer is dropping rapidly (now 29.88) and temperatures are dropping fairly rapidly (now 36 but was 39 about 10 mins. ago).

There are NO winter weather advisories, watches, warnings, etc. posted for Cape Cod. We DO have a high wind watch posted and a coastal flood watch posted--but currently forecast as primarily rain event, apparently, because although they show "snow" in the forecast, I guess it does not meet the 6" requirement that means they put out a watch or warning...

This is much too late to warn people here to do anything about a storm. The time window for doing the grocery store run, cleaning snow out of gutters and lower part of roof to prevent ice dams, etc. has passed. If it rains on the snow on the ground, roofs, etc. which is already wet and heavy, people are going to have real problems. High winds will probably mean power outages... I think they should have posted some advisories, watches or something because the official wisdom is that the storm will miss Cape Cod and I suspect that is not true.

[Persepone]

IT JUST CAME IN! NOW WE HAVE ADVISORY, WARNING...

So I guess we are going to get the storm after all... Lots of warning...

Snow is supposed to "overspread Cape Cod 4-6 p.m."

Better late than never, I guess...

[Persepone]

Well we have about 1.5-2" of heavy, wet, white "rain" and visibility is absolutely awful... Now they are telling us we're going to get snow, rain, sleet, more snow, more rain, more snow, etc. It sounds as accumulations may not be that bad, but we also expect very high wind, coastal flooding, thunder. All in all it is nasty weather.

The snow plows are out and are not keeping up with the snow. So we'll just wait and see...

And they say that it "never" snows here--hah!

[New Englander]

Everybody who lives in mass knows it never snows on the cape!!

[New Englander]

Dont know if you saw this Persepone, its from whdh.

7pm Update:
The latest RUC (short term model) seems to be on target. Showing a farther west track (which may bring that rain-snow line ever so close by dawn) they really force the area of warm advection in off the water, to the point of producing some 9-10" of snow between 7pm and 4am.

(By the way, the buoy off of Hateras has been blowing SW for hours, they ended up on the outside of the low track, indicating this could hug fairly tight... just offshore.)

Meanwhile, in re: to the RUC, this is interesting in the face of that dry slow over Ct., it took forever for it to develop under the radar echoes there, it only snowed aloft for quite some time. Precip. will still break out quickly, and likely hit us in Eastern Ma. much harder than western New England, there was some question about that earlier.

The radar is showing that pulse developing now in fact.. AND it goes along with the +20 to +30 V. Velocities, which may produce the TSW+ - In fact, it all centers on 1am exactly that snow growth coincides with the low Omega (high V V) - so get ready for craziness shortly after midnight!

SE Mass? BUFKIT ETA shows enough time for all the cape to stay snow so that they could get 6" or more. Watching that closely.


Enjoying the free-flow-thought technical discussions? Let me know! tgross@whdh.com