Caribbean threats in 2005= High,Moderate or low Risk

[cycloneye]

Sadly I say that with the pattern that is shaping up although still it is early to say for sure but it looks like caribbean will be at High Risk of hurricane landfalls as low latitud systems will track west with that Bermuda High to the north blocking any steering to the north away from Islands.I hope I am wrong about this and a mid atlantic weakness forms to steer them away.But also Homegrown systems may form in the Caribbean with no el nino around.

[x-y-no]

Yes, unfortunately I agree with you - I think we're likely to see a higher than average number of storms head through the Carribean into the Gulf.

[msbee]

you guys got any good news for us in the Caribbean?

[Opal storm]

I think this year we are going to see more Ivan-like storms in the Carib/Gulf.

[x-y-no]

:hmm: you guys got any good news for us in the Caribbean?

How about this:

We could, of course, be wrong.

[cycloneye]

:hmm: you guys got any good news for us in the Caribbean?

Barbara really I want the good news to occur in the caribbean when storms and hurricanes are concerned however we are located at hurricane alley and that means that every season the islands are threatened.Some years are more tranquil than others in terms of landfalls in the caribbean as the upper patterns change from year to year.However I can say that we are in an active cycle in the North Atlantic Basin since 1995 and for the next 2 decades the caribbean will have to deal with longtracking low latitud storms and hurricanes unless that Bermuda High breaks up or a big TUTT trough forms not allowing the Cape Verde type systems to make it all the way into the caribbean.

[Scorpion]

I think same risk as last year. The Caribbean was very lucky last year as Ivan hit only a few sparsely populated islands. The main focus IMO will be for storms to make it north of the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

I think same risk as last year. The Caribbean was very lucky last year as Ivan hit only a few sparsely populated islands. The main focus IMO will be for storms to make it north of the Caribbean.

You are dead wrong.Those islands that you say are sparsely populated.

Grenada=110,000
St Lucia=155,000
Jamaica=2,592,000 Millon
Puerto Rico=3,800,000 Millon
Haiti=6,884,000 Millon
Dominican Republic=8,130,000 Millon

Those are some of the places in the caribbean you say are sparsley populated.

Those are human beings that live like those in the US and many people live in the islands.

[Scorpion]

Well, Ivan only hit Grenada and the Caymans. I would consider them small islands. The Caribbean was fortunate in the fact that Ivan didn't hit more north and slammed Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. As for Jeanne, yes she was bad, but only really for Haiti. I believe that an unnamed system prior to hurricane season killed more people there than Jeanne.

[rainstorm]

80/88 type season

[*StOrmsPr*]

Well, Ivan only hit Grenada and the Caymans. I would consider them small islands. The Caribbean was fortunate in the fact that Ivan didn't hit more north and slammed Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. As for Jeanne, yes she was bad, but only really for Haiti. I believe that an unnamed system prior to hurricane season killed more people there than Jeanne.

Does it really matter if is a small island or a huge contry???
huge or samall there are people living there!! remember fortunate for those that didnt have to deal with an ivan,charley and frances, but does that make that less important?? NO. you have to ask that to the people that dont have a house anymore (or the one that had a familly member killed during/ or because of the 'cane)form the small island of Granada trough Jamaica and USA i dont see any diferences.

I think same risk as last year. The Caribbean was very lucky last year as Ivan hit only a few sparsely populated islands. The main focus IMO will be for storms to make it north of the Caribbean.

Now thats an interesting statement "oh is just a storm" well a storm is enough to kill someone and if only 1 person die then atleast for me that is very far away from being lucky!

BTW hope you are right about the main focus being north of us not over us!!!i dont want to deal even with a jeanne!!

[msbee]

Well, Ivan only hit Grenada and the Caymans. I would consider them small islands. The Caribbean was fortunate in the fact that Ivan didn't hit more north and slammed Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. As for Jeanne, yes she was bad, but only really for Haiti. I believe that an unnamed system prior to hurricane season killed more people there than Jeanne.

Scorpion, maybe you need to visit Grenada and the Caymans and see the damage there. maybe you need to think about the incredible damage and suffering and continued economic hardships that are still occurring as a result of those canes. then maybe you would not be so insensitve in saying well, they only hit a few small islands..
like that's ok, huh? so if a tornado devastates a small town in the USA. it's ok because it was only a small town and not a huge metroplitan area.
maybe you didn't realize how insensitve you sound, but you do.
one of the things that sometimes bothers me about this forum and certain posters is that they have tunnel vision.
a cane only gets important when it is about to hit the USA.
an island can be threatened or hit and some don't even talk about it or think about it..all they post about is what is going to happen when or if it hits Florida or the Carolinas.
well, we may be small but we count too and please don't dismiss us as unimportant, which is what your posts seem to do. Our 75 000 people here on St. Maarten could be totally wiped out economically for years by a bad cane and that is not insignificant.
Barbara

[cycloneye]

I agree with Stormspr and msbee on all the above stated.We are people who are human beings Scorpion.I wont say more as I am a moderator and is not good ethical thing for a moderator to go to an argument with a member.

[Scorpion]

I am sorry, I did not mean to offend anybody. I guess I was wrong saying the Caribbean didn't get it that bad last year. Hopefully the Caribbean is quiet this year .

[feederband]

i just think the whole planet is just out of wack. look at california with the rains and almost every week their is some kind of natural disaster some where around the globe. im not preaching end of the world but gees....

[stormchazer]

If the Bermuda High stays in place, then the Caribbean is going to be a busy place. Pray for El Nino.

[Scorpion]

Agreed. I have a bad feeling we might get a bad threat this year, worse than Frances.

[george_r_1961]

California getting tornadoes..Maryland getting an earthquake..isnt it supposed to be the other way around? Well anyway, back on topic. I think there is a high risk for the Carribean this year. My reasoning behind that is it looks like the Bermuda Azores High will strengthen and build westward keeping the storms on a more westward track; this spells bad news for the Bahamas as well.

[HURAKAN]

Unfortunately, the Caribbean Sea is always under the eye of the storm, and there is always a very high risk of a Caribbean strike every year.