Which area of US will have more threats in 2005?

[cycloneye]

I say that Florida will be again under the gun with Texas a second area with the synoptic pattern shaping up.

[x-y-no]

I say that Florida will be again under the gun with Texas a second area with the synoptic pattern shaping up.

I'll flip that prediction and say Texas first, Florida second.

[Scorpion]

Florida East Coast simply because it is the highest probabality for a hurricane to hit. Virginia up to Maine? Get real, that chance is like 1 in a thousand.

[Derek Ortt]

highest chance of a direct hit is the NC Outer Banks. While more storms may pass within 85NM of Florida (which is how probabilities are calculated, not storm hits or landfalls), more bring significant impacts to NC

The choice is obvious, the NC outer banks

[cycloneye]

Florida East Coast simply because it is the highest probabality for a hurricane to hit. Virginia up to Maine? Get real, that chance is like 1 in a thousand.

But that option has to be in a poll like this because the question says "all the US" and that is from Brownsville to Maine.

[Scorpion]

Oh yea didn't notice the Outer Banks, wouldve picked that one for sure. Maybe they will be the hurricane magnet this year like in 99.

[Brent]

North Carolina Outer Banks. It sticks out like a sore thumb... a lot of systems recurve too late and at the very least, clip the area.

[southerngale]

I say that Florida will be again under the gun with Texas a second area with the synoptic pattern shaping up.

I'll flip that prediction and say Texas first, Florida second.

Just curious...why Texas? We were lucky last year and what will be different about this year?

[SouthernWx]

Florida peninsula....particularly from south of a Sarasota-Vero Beach line to the Keys.

PW

[cajungal]

I posted a similar post awhile back. I voted east coast of Florida. But, we could see a double hit. Sometimes hurricanes hit south Florida then hit southeast Louisiana next. Examples: Andrew and Betsy. Usually the further south the hurricane goes, Louisiana risk goes up. I also have a feeling Texas may see something.

[MGC]

All depends on where the Bermuda ridge sets up this season. I voted for the E coast Fla. I doubt we get the strong troughs this August like we did last season. I vote law of averages so Outter Banks is my second choise.....MGC

[jeff]

I say that Florida will be again under the gun with Texas a second area with the synoptic pattern shaping up.

I'll flip that prediction and say Texas first, Florida second.

Just curious...why Texas? We were lucky last year and what will be different about this year?

Texas has been lucky for many many years minus the weak tropical storms that have been very devastating. Our luck will run out eventually and when it does we will be in a world of hurt in Houston/Galveston

[Stormsfury]

I say that Florida will be again under the gun with Texas a second area with the synoptic pattern shaping up.

I'll flip that prediction and say Texas first, Florida second.

Just curious...why Texas? We were lucky last year and what will be different about this year?

The issue is the last several years, there's been an E US trough, and b/c of that (and several other factors), TC's aren't able to go thru this and thusly, TX has relatively been protected so to speak ...

During certain years, the Bermuda High can be so severely displaced, unusually strong, and/or has an HP extension across the Central US in which there's a lack of any significant troughing in which to induce a poleward motion of a TC. That's just ONE aspect.

SF

[Ixolib]

I guess Alabama and Mississippi must have recently seceded from the US???

[TexasStooge]

Florida already got the worst last year, so I have a feeling Texas will be next. I could be wrong, but the weather here has been screwed up lately.

[cycloneye]

I guess Alabama and Mississippi must have recently seceded from the US???

Nobody is perfect and I forgot to put that area but is in the poll now.

[Scorpion]

The reason I voted Florida East Coast is that even though the Outer Banks stick out like a sore thumb, historically Florida has been hit more times. Plus, it is extremely hard to get a Cat 4 or 5 up there, unlike Florida.

[wxman57]

The poll question is somewhat ambiguous. Do you mean "Which area of the U.S. will have more threats in 2005 than in 2004?" Or do you mean "Which area of the U.S. will have additional threats in 2005?" Or maybe, "Which area of the U.S. coast will hav ethe most threats in 2005?" There are different answers, depending upon how the question is asked. And I don't think there was any inplication that a hurricane must be a Cat 4 or 5 to count.

[Derek Ortt]

we need to remember that the Carolinas were hit 3 times last August by Alex, Charley, and Gaston.

That is only one less than Florida (well, the same technically as Ivan was an Alabama storm)

[x-y-no]

I say that Florida will be again under the gun with Texas a second area with the synoptic pattern shaping up.

I'll flip that prediction and say Texas first, Florida second.

Just curious...why Texas? We were lucky last year and what will be different about this year?

Well, it's awfully early and I may be out to lunch here ... but it seems to me the pattern is heading towards one which favors storms in the main part of the season coming through the Carribean into the Gulf. ENSO is heading neutral, as I understand it, but the eastern Pacific (which has more influence on Atlantic storm tracks) looks like it will be negative again, which favors that scenario. So then the question in terms of what part of the Gulf coast we're talking about is where is the mean trough and how strong is it - which it's way too early to have any kind of handle on, for me at least - but my gut says further west than last year.