The PDO went into negative phase ~1998 and yet we had 26 months from August 02 till September of 04 with positive PDO values. We had El Nino/Neutral roughly during that same time. Is the relationship that direct? Will the positive El Nino always alter the negative PDO values and and will a La Nina alter positive PDO values so directly? Am I right to assume the 2004 ending trend of negative values will dominate 2005 even though January was .44? Of course the latest forecast is for Neutral ENSO to develop in the next 3 months is this a more confident forecast because of the already negative PDO as well?
During the last 30 months we have had only 3 months of negative PDO values wouldn't it be HIGHLY unlikely that El Nino conditions return anytime to soon if the relationship is so close?
That being the case with a Cold PDO and Neutral Enso any effects on the 2005 hurricane season will if anything be to enhance activity even more than 2004?
Paul
PDO and ENSO relationship
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
- Contact:
PDO and ENSO relationship
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: bird, DESTRUCTION5, Google Adsense [Bot], kevin, MetroMike, pepecool20, TampaWxLurker and 609 guests