Max Mayfield

[boca]

I heard on the radio that Max Mayfield feels that Florida will be in the same or simular pattern just like last year as per article in the Sun Sentinel. I don't quite understand since were still in winter but I guess i'll go with it.

[weatherwindow]

certainly hope not!....but i think its a little early to predict how the synoptic pattern will evolve. it would be fairly unusual for a trough-ridge pattern to persist from february thru september. lets be optimistic

[Brent]

I think it's too early as well... we don't even know for sure the season will be active like last year.

Oh and 4 hurricanes hitting Florida in the same season is a once-every-100-years event, that's not to say they can't be hit or threatened, but it won't be FOUR times.

[Patrick99]

I still believe that the conditions are optimal for a Florida hit several times during *any* given season. Let's face it, a Bermuda High nosing over Florida is not exactly a rare feature, whether it's February, June, or September. I think it's a mistake to talk of last season as if it contained some incredibly weird weather pattern.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it is to be it will be. That is the only fact to this story.

[vbhoutex]

I think it's too early as well... we don't even know for sure the season will be active like last year.

Oh and 4 hurricanes hitting Florida in the same season is a once-every-100-years event, that's not to say they can't be hit or threatened, but it won't be FOUR times.

NEVER SAY NEVER!!!!!! ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO WEATHER!!! We've had more than our share of 100 year floods and for that matter 500 and 1000 year floods here in Houston and I have only been here 34 years.

[CourierPR]

When Max Mayfield speaks we need to pay attention.

[cycloneye]

When Max Mayfield speaks we need to pay attention.

Yes that is true because when he visits Puerto Rico all the press covers his remarks and the population is very interested on what he says about what to expect every season he comes.For the past 4 years he has been here with the hurricane hunter tour.

[Derek Ortt]

hint:

check the long-wave pattern not the bermuda high if you want to know whether or not we're going to be in the firing line. If we have a west bermuda high, but a LW trough, then the Carolinas will get 3 in one month, as was the case in Aug 2004

[Rainband]

When Max Mayfield speaks we need to pay attention.

I agree. Time will tell though. I hardly think we will have a year like last year.

[depotoo]

derek - do you have any preliminary predictions yet?

[Anonymous]

People said last year that because Fla was so over due, Fla was gonna get slammed and we did.... Odds are now strongly against a florida landfall because there wasnt any part of fla not hit.

[Rainband]

People said last year that because Fla was so over due, Fla was gonna get slammed and we did.... Odds are now strongly against a florida landfall because there wasnt any part of fla not hit.

look at Mwatkins post about odds.

[Derek Ortt]

the science for reliable seasonal predictions has not yet been reached; therefore, I have taken the advice of my boss and advisor at RSMAS to not engage in seasonal predictions. Instead, I go with the NOAA seasonal prediction

[depotoo]

boy you guys are samrt derek! noone can blame you for anything not being as predicted now can they?? lol thanks

where is mikse prediction? i haven't seen it?

[wxman57]

People said last year that because Fla was so over due, Fla was gonna get slammed and we did.... Odds are now strongly against a florida landfall because there wasnt any part of fla not hit.

Unfortunately, "the odds" don't have any memory. The patterns are shaping up to be similar to last season, and I think that Florida will be under the gun again. However, that doesn't mean only Florida will be threatened. If it hadn't been for an early season cold front moving into the Gulf late in July, then Charley would most likely have continued west to the NW Gulf, maybe Texas. And it only takes a passing trof to turn a hurricane northward at any time. So Frances or Jeanne could easily have turned more northward and missed Florida. It was all a matter of bad timing for Florida in 2004. While 4 storms are not likely to hit Florida in 2005, I think Florida has just as good a chance of being hit in 2005 as last year.

[HurricaneBill]

As someone stated, it was as if Florida had a "Kick me" on it.

Just because a season or storm is a once in a hundred years or whatever event, that doesn't mean it'll stick to that pattern.

Say Charley was a once in 50 years storm. It is still possible another storm like Charley won't happen for over a century and it is also possible another Charley could've happened later in 2004.

[mobilebay]

the science for reliable seasonal predictions has not yet been reached; therefore, I have taken the advice of my boss and advisor at RSMAS to not engage in seasonal predictions. Instead, I go with the NOAA seasonal prediction

[mobilebay]

the science for reliable seasonal predictions has not yet been reached; therefore, I have taken the advice of my boss and advisor at RSMAS to not engage in seasonal predictions. Instead, I go with the NOAA seasonal prediction

WOW! Now that is going out on a limb. LOL! Just picking with you Derek! You are one of the more respected posters on this board, and it is well deserved. IMO!

[SouthernWx]

The problem with the "Florida was hit 4 times by significant hurricanes last season (3 impacting the peninsula), so none will strike this year"....it that historically, major landfalling hurricanes strike in cycles of lulls and clusters.

Let's look at Florida Peninsula landfalling major hurricanes over the past 135 yrs:

Aug 1871
Oct 1873
Aug 1888
Sep 1896
Oct 1898 (cat-4; nr GA-FL border)
Oct 1906
Oct 1909
Oct 1910
Sep 1919 (cat-4)
Oct 1921
Sep 1926 (cat-4)
Sep 1928 (cat-4)
Sep 1929
Sep 1933
Sep 1935 (cat-5)
Oct 1944
Sep 1945
Sep 1947 (cat-4)
Sep 1948
Aug 1949
Sep 1950
Oct 1950
Sep 1960 (cat-4; "Donna")
Sep 1965 ("Betsy")
Aug 1992 (cat-5; "Andrew")
Aug 2004 (cat-4; "Charley")
Sep 2004 ("Jeanne")

If you notice, the past has been punctuated by periods of lulls and clusters. The last intense landfalling hurricane cluster on the Florida Peninsula ended in 1950. For the past 50+ years...AT LEAST UNTIL last year, the Florida Peninsula has experienced an extraordinary lull in major landfalling hurricanes, with only three (3) impacting the Florida Peninsula during the period 1951-2003....far below the climatological average return period.

My great fear, and IMO the fear most hurricane experts feel is that we've now ended the extraordinary five-decade long lull....and are entering a cycle in which landfalling intense hurricanes on the Florida Peninsula will be numerous during the next 20-30 years; a major hurricane "cluster". One such major hurricane cluster affected the peninsula between 1919 and 1950, when 14 major hurricanes impacted Florida; including four (4) cat-4's and a deadly cat-5 (1935 Labor Day hurricane).

If a similar hurricane landfall cycle begun in 2004...as I firmly believe, then Florida is in serious peril the next 20-30 years. To be totally honest, Floridians were fortunate last season. Charley was extraordinarily small in diameter....the violent core devastated Charlotte county, but missed far more densely populated counties to the north and south.

Hurricane Frances appeared to be in the same size/ intensity range as the 1926 "Great Miami hurricane" as it approached the Bahamas, but fortunately weakened and veered northwest.....striking areas north of highly populated Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach at only 100-110 mph (cat-2) intensity; while hurricane Jeanne was a major hurricane at impact, good fortune was still on Florida's side....with the intense core of 115+ mph sustained winds sparing the millions of vunerable coastal residents along the Florida Gold Coast.

I seriously doubt every major landfalling hurricane during this next cycle of activity will miss the large population centers. During the 1919-1950 cycle, Miami was smashed by a large cat-4 hurricane in 1926 then strong cat-3 hurricanes in 1945 and 1950; also experienced wind gusts over 110 mph on the south side of the extremely large, intense September 1947 cat-4. Broward county suffered direct hits in 1926 (4), 1928 (4), 1933 (3), 1947 (4), 1949 (3), and 1950 (3). Farther north, Palm Beach county, now home to over one million residents was blasted by a monster cat-4 in Sept 1928, then a cat-3 hurricane in 1933, another cat-4 in 1947, and another cat-3 in 1949. The financial impact and possible loss of life from such an onslaught today in an area with over five million residents (5,000,000) is almost beyond comprehension.

During the last major hurricane cycle, a major hurricane also impacted the highly populated and vunerable Tampa Bay region....and that last direct hit was 84 years ago. Also, while hurricanes Charley and Jeanne failed to maintain major hurricane strength while crossing the peninsula in 2004....that isn't always the case. We all remember 1992's hurricane Andrew remaining an extremely dangerous hurricane across the Everglades and into the Gulf of Mexico (albeit fortunately far enough south to spare Naples and Fort Myers)......in September 1926, the "Great Miami" hurricane caused major hurricane damage along the Southwest Florida coast even after being overland for several hours (after wiping Miami and Fort Lauderdale from the map).

I can't tell you if a major hurricane will impact the Florida Peninsula during 2005. What I can tell you is IMO there is a very high likelyhood of numerous major hurricanes impacting Florida over the next 10-30 years. Nature always has a way of balancing out the scales....."feast to famine" (or vise versa) if you will. Considering the almost total lack of major landfalling hurricanes during the past five decades (prior to 2004), I won't be surprised to see a major hurricane impact some portion of the Florida Peninsula this upcoming season...or the next several seasons in a row. To balance out the past five decades of unusually low activity, I won't be surprised to see major hurricanes strike Florida often during the next decade.....nature always seems to "catch up" with the historical average, whether it's regarding temperature, rainfall, or hurricane activity.

PW