Stormsfury's preliminary numbers for the 2005 season...

[Stormsfury]

I do not have the details ready ATT, but I thought that I would go ahead and post preliminary numbers. The full details of my prognosis will be posted on my website, hopefully by the end of February.

The numbers are as followed ...

12 tropical storms.
7 hurricanes
3 major.

As usual, the final numbers will be out sometime in mid to late May when evolution of the summer patterns are a bit more clear and what the prominent SSTA state of the PAC/ATL looks like going in ... (right now, at worst, NEUTRAL ENSO conditions)

SF

[cycloneye]

I will elaborate much more when I make my final forecast for the 2005 season by mid april but my numbers for now are 12/7/3.

The above from my preliminary forecast so we coincide SF.Now let's see in the comming weeks what kind of pattern develops and how the predictable factors evolve.

[Scorpion]

I wonder why so low? Conditions are nearly as ideal as last year.

[mobilebay]

I do not have the details ready ATT, but I thought that I would go ahead and post preliminary numbers. The full details of my prognosis will be posted on my website, hopefully by the end of February.

The numbers are as followed ...

12 tropical storms.
7 hurricanes
3 major.

As usual, the final numbers will be out sometime in mid to late May when evolution of the summer patterns are a bit more clear and what the prominent SSTA state of the PAC/ATL looks like going in ... (right now, at worst, NEUTRAL ENSO conditions)

SF

I think you are pretty darn close Stormsfury. I might go just a tiny bit above you around 13/7/4. I do think it will be a simular setup as last year with the Bermuda High. I hate to say it but Florida will probably be back under the gun this year. After looking at the latest info and reading the well thought out posts on this Board, the only thing going in Fllorida's favor is the odds. What is the odds of that happening two years in a row? Anyway, I think the Upper Texas Coast will be under the gun as well. I would have to say in Early August. Does anyone know if there is going to be any improvements with the Models? I know alot of them ( particularly the GFS) underestimated the streangth of the Bermuda High last year. I'm pumped up and ready to go!

[Derek Ortt]

I've just started a research project on the Bermuda high vs storm tracks.

The Bermuda high was actually farther west in Aug than Sept. However, we had a large EC trough in August, which turned the storms into the Carolinas and SNE. What we had in Sept was more of a shifted longwave pattern as the EC trough was replaced by a ridge (when taking the monthly mean values).

In short, it may not be the Bermuda high, but instead the mid lat wave pattern that determines whether or not storms plow into the EC or go out to sea

[mobilebay]

I've just started a research project on the Bermuda high vs storm tracks.

The Bermuda high was actually farther west in Aug than Sept. However, we had a large EC trough in August, which turned the storms into the Carolinas and SNE. What we had in Sept was more of a shifted longwave pattern as the EC trough was replaced by a ridge (when taking the monthly mean values).

In short, it may not be the Bermuda high, but instead the mid lat wave pattern that determines whether or not storms plow into the EC or go out to sea

Thanks for the reply. That seems pretty logical. I just remember Ivan when the models kept wanting to turn him north days before he actually did.

[Stormsfury]

I've just started a research project on the Bermuda high vs storm tracks.

The Bermuda high was actually farther west in Aug than Sept. However, we had a large EC trough in August, which turned the storms into the Carolinas and SNE. What we had in Sept was more of a shifted longwave pattern as the EC trough was replaced by a ridge (when taking the monthly mean values).

In short, it may not be the Bermuda high, but instead the mid lat wave pattern that determines whether or not storms plow into the EC or go out to sea

Bingo. The usually (and unseasonable) large trough was the culprit of just why

1) The GOM states from MS WEST was spared.
2) Why Florida was so hard hit ... Charley was swept up by the trough. During Frances, and Ivan, the longwave pattern was shifting. Frances in essence carved out an EC trough which also aided in a pattern change which left in the wake, a ridge poked up and ultimately ended up steering Ivan WNW across the Caribbean until it met up with another trough in the Central States.
3) Jeanne was basically left in no man's land until another ridge of high pressure developed to its north and again, steered it into Florida.

SF

[Stormsfury]

Preliminary writeup NOW available on my website ... with credits also going to TropicalWxWatcher (Jason Moreland) and donsutherland1 for excellent research informational posts WRT climatology in posts located here on Storm2k in two separate threads ...

SF

[Aquawind]

Awesome Discussion SF! Amazing I just was reading the data from the QBO links you and MW replied and now just read that discussion and Yeow! You confirmed alot of my thoughts and answered a few of the questions that came up in my reading on Saturday. That was great timming even though I have been out of town since Saturday afternoon..lol.

Thanks for posting!

Paul

[Steve]

12/7/3 seems like a safe prediction for any season . But I like the research you put into what you predict. I also love to read TWW and use him and others when putting my stuff together. DS is great too but I've never looked at his prelims before putting together a seasonal guesscast.

I'll get to reading the details later on. Thanks.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

12/7/3 seems like a safe prediction for any season . But I like the research you put into what you predict. I also love to read TWW and use him and others when putting my stuff together. DS is great too but I've never looked at his prelims before putting together a seasonal guesscast.

I'll get to reading the details later on. Thanks.

Steve

Thanks, Steve ... TWW, DS, MW, Ortt, just to name a few are very good reads and you can expect from them as well as myself for some great research, and very informative discussions.

SF

[Stormsfury]

I wonder why so low? Conditions are nearly as ideal as last year.

Just b/c conditions are ideal doesn't guarantee an active season or not, or a season with less than lackluster conditions doesn't necessarily mean that the season won't be active in given years (1969) ...

Basically, I can give an idea of the potential activeness of a season based on what I expect from an indices standpoint of what I think we will be dealing with. I cannot gauge this far out, though, what kind of synoptic pattern that will be in place or could set up when the heart of the season sets in...

SF

[donsutherland1]

Great discussion, SF.

[Stormsfury]

Thanks, Don.

[george_r_1961]

I've just started a research project on the Bermuda high vs storm tracks.

The Bermuda high was actually farther west in Aug than Sept. However, we had a large EC trough in August, which turned the storms into the Carolinas and SNE. What we had in Sept was more of a shifted longwave pattern as the EC trough was replaced by a ridge (when taking the monthly mean values).

In short, it may not be the Bermuda high, but instead the mid lat wave pattern that determines whether or not storms plow into the EC or go out to sea

Exactly Derek. That makes forecasting whether or not tropical cyclones will hit my area especially difficult..particularly with a storm that has already begun to recurve. Ditto for the NC Outer Banks. Last year residents of Hatteras and Ocracoke were treated to a nasty surprise when the trough that was supposed to keep Alex offshore amplified and brought the eye within 15 miles of Hatteras.

[cyclonaut]

Good job!