Worldwide Tropical Update: 17 February 2005

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 17 February 2005 at 0000Z.

Tropical Depression Noname (14R/92S) (17/0000Z)
Position: 21.5S 51.5E (320 mi SE of Antananarivo, Madagascar)
Movement: W at 5 mph
Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65"
Dvorak Est: T1.0/1.0

14R is beginning to fall apart as it approaches Madagascar.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olaf (08F/19P) (17/0000Z)
Position: 15.6S 168.1W (195 mi SSE of Pago Pago, American Samoa)
Movement: SE at 16 mph
Winds: 150 mph
Pressure: 920 mb / 27.17"
Dvorak Est: T6.5/7.0

Olaf is slowing coming down from its apex. The eye has slightly contracted, but the eye wall’s cloud-top temperatures remain well below –85°C. Olaf remains in good outflow and strong divergence aloft, and while the shear remains below 15kt, some increases in shear are expected to help weaken Olaf further. The official forecast has Olaf steadily weakening throughout the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Nancy (09F/18P) (17/0000Z)
Position: 24.6S 162.7W (825 ESE of Nuku’alofa, Tonga)
Movement: SW at 14 mph
Winds: 50 mph
Pressure: 990 mb / 29.23"
Dvorak Est: T1.5/2.5

Shear continues to tear at Nancy while outflow is decreasing. The center of circulation is now completely exposed with little convection present. Nancy is transitioning into an extra-tropical feature as it shifts toward the west. As the Fujiwara effect persists, expect Nancy to become absorbed into the circulation of Olaf. Both JTWC and Fiji Met Service has issued their final warnings on Nancy.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), to include official advisories from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers, go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 17 February 2005 at 0600Z.

Tropical Depression Noname (14R/92S) (17/0600Z)
Position: 22.0S 52.0E (365 mi SE of Antananarivo, Madagascar)
Movement: Stationary
Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65"
Dvorak Est: T1.0/1.0

14R is beginning to fall apart as it approaches Madagascar.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olaf (08F/19P) (17/0600Z)
Position: 16.7S 167.1W (290 mi SSE of Pago Pago, American Samoa)
Movement: SE at 14 mph
Winds: 160 mph
Pressure: 915 mb / 27.02"
Dvorak Est: T6.5/7.0

Olaf has regained a little bit of strength, but it appears that this will be the peak. Strong divergence aloft persists with great outflow and limited shear. However, shear is increasing to Olaf’s south. An upper-level trough will continue to weaken the system and the merging of Olaf with the remnants of Nancy will further this process..

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), to include official advisories from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers, go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com