Tropical Cyclone Olaf (19P)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
6 AM SST TUE FEB 15 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN
SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF
AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 130
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 150 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF WAS
LOCATED AT 12.1 SOUTH 174.0 WEST OR ABOUT 210 NAUTICAL MILES
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AT 4 AM SST TUESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WAS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ONLY 5 MPH IN THE LAST 5 HOURS AND IT
APPEARS THAT IT IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. AT THIS
MOVEMENT...HURRICANE OLAF WILL BE NEAR TUTUILA TUESDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 40 FEET WILL
GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 50 FT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 140 MPH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
TUESDAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY
DOWNPOUR.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION
ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

130 mph the maximum winds with gusts of 150 mph.I continue to pray for all those people there.

[senorpepr]

Nope. TC Faq indicates you can sorta convert 10-min average winds to 1-min average by multiplying by 12%, but that gives 134.4 kts, not a Category 5.

Interesting. I had always read that the conversion was to multiply the ten-minute average by 1.14. Thanks for the info.

[P.K.]

Nope. TC Faq indicates you can sorta convert 10-min average winds to 1-min average by multiplying by 12%, but that gives 134.4 kts, not a Category 5.

Interesting. I had always read that the conversion was to multiply the ten-minute average by 1.14. Thanks for the info.

And I thought it was 17%, lol (I'm sure I read that on here a while ago)

[HURAKAN]

Sorry, I have been unable to upgrade Olaf and Nancy since I have been very seek with periods of fever above 103º F, today I am feeling better and watching how Olaf will slam very hard Pago Pago.

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ASZ001>003-152300-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 AM SST TUE FEB 15 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN
SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF
AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 140
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF WAS
LOCATED AT 12.2 SOUTH 173.2 WEST OR ABOUT 200 NAUTICAL MILES
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AT 7 AM SST TUESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WAS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ONLY 10 MPH IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IT
APPEARS THAT IT IS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. AT THIS
MOVEMENT...HURRICANE OLAF WILL BE NEAR TUTUILA TUESDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 40 FEET WILL
GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 50 FT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING
INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 140 MPH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS
TUESDAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND
OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY
DOWNPOUR.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION
ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.




Now winds of 140 mph with gusts of 170 mph.Oh my those people will get a big blow hopefully they hunker down and nothing tragic happens..

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B16 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 15/2027 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [930HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 173.3W
AT 151800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS BUT
EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES
OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN
THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

OLAF INTENSIFIED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TOPS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH EYE WARMING. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A DG
EYE IN CDG SURROUND YIELDING T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24 HRS. DT=7, PT AND MET
AGREE AT 6.5. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. SHEAR
ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE FURTHER ALONG PATH. OLAF IS BEING STEERED
EAST BY WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. STEERING TURNS NORTHWEST
AROUND 172W. SUBSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM STILL ANTICIPATED TO TURN SE AND
ACCELERATE. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK AND FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 13.8S 171.5W MOV SE 12KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 16.5S 168.9W MOV SE 13KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 18.1S 168.2W MOV SE 13KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 20.0S 166.6W MOV SE 13KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
160230 UTC.

Currently, (officially from Fiji RSMC) Olaf is 160mph and is forecast to strengthen to 165mph within 24 hours.

[Rainband]

I am agree Luis...Hopefully everyone does what they are told. They are used to these big storms I can't imagine being used to them. Prayers on the way!!! I can't imagine being stuck on an island. Even though Puerto Rico is bigger..that must be terrifying huh Luis. We can at least go inland a bit here in florida.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

SSD Dvorak Numbers now T 7.0 :\

[Scorpion]

160 mph 10 min sustained winds??? If true, that is a monster that even I would not want to be anywhere near.

[senorpepr]

160 mph 10 min sustained winds??? If true, that is a monster that even I would not want to be anywhere near.

No, 160mph 1min average sustained winds.

Still bad either way you slice it.

[HurricaneBill]

Olaf has now been upgraded by JTWC to Category 5.

A bit of good news, however. Olaf has shifted a bit east.

[Derecho]

It's doing the ol' Ivan Jamaica dodge.

Now looks likely to miss all of Samoa by a pretty good margin (and they'll be on the weaker, south side of the storm.)

[HurricaneBill]

Unfortunately, American Samoa might still be at risk. And the Cook Islands are still under the gun.

Some of the islands are too small to appear on the satellite maps. That area of the South Pacific has numerous islands.

In other words, regardless of whatever direction Olaf moves in, some of the islands WILL get hit.

[Ola]

It's doing the ol' Ivan Jamaica dodge.

Now looks likely to miss all of Samoa by a pretty good margin (and they'll be on the weaker, south side of the storm.)

Somehow I was under the impression that on the souther hemisphere, the south side was the stronger one. I thought it had to do with the earth's rotation and the can spinning against the earth's rotation and its(cane's) forward movement. Since all is reversed on te souther hemisphere...... I thought that would be reversed too. Help me out here Derecho. Why isnt that?

[Derecho]

Basically the weaker side of the storm is the side where the rotation of the storm is the opposite of movement.

It's moving Southeast..

It's rotating clockwise...

South side is weaker.


The thing of it is, for a storm heading NW in the Northern hemisphere, rotating counterclockwise, the southside is typically the weak side as well.

[Ola]

OK, I knew that the windspeed is higher on the northen side here because you add the storm movement to thewind speed and vice versa on the southern side, which is one of the reasons sometimes its hard to close out a weak low in a wave if it is moving fast, quickscat wont pick up on the west wind cause of the system movement. But I thought it had also something to do with something else because not only is the northen side stronger in terms of winds, but also in terms of rainfall and area coverage. Does the higher wind speed in relation to the earth's surface create more surface convergance and thus more convection?

BTW its good to see ya all again.

[AussieMark]

Just don't want this thing coming anywhere near us.

[HurricaneBill]

Just don't want this thing coming anywhere near us.

You'll be fine!

Besides, it looks like Samoa will be spared a direct hit.

However, American Samoa still lies right in Olaf's path along with several other islands.

[senorpepr]

Sorry, I have been unable to upgrade Olaf and Nancy since I have been very seek with periods of fever above 103º F, today I am feeling better and watching how Olaf will slam very hard Pago Pago.

I've noticed you had been out, Sandy. Glad to have you back and I hope you continue to feel better.

[AussieMark]

Just don't want this thing coming anywhere near us.

You'll be fine!

Besides, it looks like Samoa will be spared a direct hit.

However, American Samoa still lies right in Olaf's path along with several other islands.

And this is just mid february.

I remember in past seasons March has produced its dose of wikid storms