a clarification about charley

[MGC]

I was just rereading Hurricane Andrew's upgrade to Cat 5 last night. I suggest that all of you reread it as there are some simularities between Andrew and Charley. Both were small rapidly intensifying system at landfall. Andrew's pressure dropped 4mb in just 25 minutes from landfall on Elliott Key to mainland landfall at Fender Point. Charley central pressure dropped 13mb in 3 hours just prior to landfall. Will Charley be upgraded to Cat 5? I doubt it, but lets let that call be made by the pros at the NHC. Reasons I doubt the upgrade are only a 941mb pressure at landfall, better GPS dropsounds used in Charley, Miami and Tampa doppler radars had a pretty good look at Charley......MGC

[MWatkins]

I was just rereading Hurricane Andrew's upgrade to Cat 5 last night. I suggest that all of you reread it as there are some simularities between Andrew and Charley. Both were small rapidly intensifying system at landfall. Andrew's pressure dropped 4mb in just 25 minutes from landfall on Elliott Key to mainland landfall at Fender Point. Charley central pressure dropped 13mb in 3 hours just prior to landfall. Will Charley be upgraded to Cat 5? I doubt it, but lets let that call be made by the pros at the NHC. Reasons I doubt the upgrade are only a 941mb pressure at landfall, better GPS dropsounds used in Charley, Miami and Tampa doppler radars had a pretty good look at Charley......MGC

I concur...good point on the technology...and the dopplers. Also...from a symmetry standpoint andrew's windfield was much more symmetrial...Charley was a bit right-handed. Not exatly a argument against a cat 5 classification but a better indicator of the (relative) organization of the two cyclones.

MW

[Andrew92]

OK, I probably shouldn't do this, but just for humor (I wouldn't be surprised if this gets deleted frankly):

The GreatOne Hurricane Scale of Intensity

Tropical Depression: <10 mph
Tropical Storm: 10-25 mph
Hurricane: 25<

Category 1: 26-50 mph
Category 2: 51-75 mph
Category 3: 76-100 mph
Category 4: 101-125 mph
Category 5: 125<

Currently at this posting the wind is 20 mph with gusts at 29 mph in Grand Rapids, MI. According to Great One, if this was a tropical cyclone, I would be experiencing a named storm, with gusts to hurricane force.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Another intent from great one Nice try again but no cigar.

[MGC]

Everyone should quit picking on GreatOne. I enjoy reading his posts. They make me laugh, especially his warning colors.....MGC

[Andrew92]

In any event, I do believe that Charley was a Category 4 at landfall.

-Andrew92

[Derek Ortt]

It likely was an upper 4, but not inconceivable that it was the weakest 5 to make landfall in the USA

[MGC]

Derek, is anyone currently investigating if Charley was a Cat 5 at the NHC?.....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

not that I know of, though if new data does come in, of course it will be re-evaluated, like when they declared Charley as a 105KT cat 3 at landfall in Suburban Havana

[Stratosphere747]

It likely was an upper 4, but not inconceivable that it was the weakest 5 to make landfall in the USA

Well being that we can count on one hand the amount of cat5 canes to strike the US, being the weakest of the cat5's tells you how unique Charley if upgraded really was.

I used to get caught up in the category of hurricanes, but as this last year taught us, it seems as if we are focusing to much on what category each cane becomes and eventually could lead the general public into a truly false sense of security.

IMO they need to ditch or somehow if possible update how we look at the saffir-simpson scale.

[HurricaneBill]

Be nice to greatone. He is only stating his option. Like the leftiest over in the PC forum. Thank you!

Well, stating an opinion is one thing. Posting senseless crap is another. He has been banned repeatedly and evades his bans. Therefore he is a troll.

[vbhoutex]

Matt I am surprised at you. You know as well as everyone else here that he is posting a lot of bunk to try and get a CAT5 somewhere. He always has. I realize you are or were Bud's, but there is a huge difference between opinions and outright falsehoods which he posts. He is also doing some things that will get him in some trouble he doesn't want if he doesn't stop it soon.

[george_r_1961]

Be nice to greatone. He is only stating his option. Like the leftiest over in the PC forum. Thank you!

Greatone isnt nice...hes a troll pure and simple.

[tronbunny]

IMO they need to ditch or somehow if possible update how we look at the saffir-simpson scale.

Hear, here!

definitely need a re-definition.
Because I really don't think it acurately conveys the potential dangers.

I hope that Charley never gets a cat 5 rating.
I believe it would diminish the seriousness of cat 2, 3 and 4, and breed complacency among the general public.

I admit, myself, that if Charley is the worst case scenario for central FL (metro Orlando, etc.) then life is peachy keen here, even with a Cat3 rolling in around Vero, Sarasota, etc.
I do not want the rest of the world "blowing off" such a scenario.
That could be tragic.

[HurricaneBill]

I agree about revising the Saffir-Simpson scale. Especially in regards to New England storms.

Category 1 and Category 2 hurricanes can be devastating to New England.

I think instead of referring to Category 3+ hurricanes as major, "intense" would be a better adjective. IMHO, even a Category 1 hurricane is capable of causing major damage.

When Frances quickly weakened to a Category 2, some people were already calling her a flop.

[Derek Ortt]

Charley likely was the worst case for Orlando. A near cat 5 coming in only 4.5 hours before hitting Orlando. What would have made it worse is if Charley would have been the size of Ivan as it would not have weakened as quickly; thus, would have been a strong 2 or maybe even a weak 3 in Orlando, which may have leveled the city then with gusts well over 140, approaching 150, instead of merely to 105 m.p.h.

A hit from the east is less likely and the effects are not as severe, as shown by Jeanne where the max gusts in Orlando were closer to 75 m.p.h.

[SouthernWx]

Charley likely was the worst case for Orlando. A near cat 5 coming in only 4.5 hours before hitting Orlando. What would have made it worse is if Charley would have been the size of Ivan as it would not have weakened as quickly; thus, would have been a strong 2 or maybe even a weak 3 in Orlando, which may have leveled the city then with gusts well over 140, approaching 150, instead of merely to 105 m.p.h.

A hit from the east is less likely and the effects are not as severe, as shown by Jeanne where the max gusts in Orlando were closer to 75 m.p.h.

To an extent I agree...but residents of central Florida should never forget the possibility of a September 1928 repeat (known as "San Felipe"), in which a very large and intense hurricane slammed inland near West Palm Beach and recurved over Florida, passing just west of Orlando/ near Disney World.

Jeanne was a major hurricane, but not close to the size and intensity of the 1928 Palm Beach hurricane. Also, hurricane Jeanne tracked well south of greater Orlando....the 1928 monster was much closer...and the angle of recurvature put Orlando in the very worst portion of the eyewall.

Several hurricane experts I've spoken with over the decades believe the 1928 hurricane likely produced wind gusts of 120-135 mph or higher across a swath some 30-40 miles in width while crossing central Florida/ greater Orlando....similar to the effects of a 40 mile wide F2 tornado. The damage from such an event in a densely populated metropolitan area such as Orlando would be devastating.

I hope and pray everyone on the Florida peninsula....both on the coasts and well inland now believes what I've preached on the boards since my newbie days at GoPBI (2000); that no area of the Florida peninsula is completely safe from the extreme winds from a severe hurricane. I hope that 2004 was a wake up call. As bad as it was, believe me...it could have been even worse (I cite years such as 1848, 1926, 1928, and 1947 as examples).

PW

[Scorpion]

I seriously don't think that Charley should be upgraded to Cat 5. This would put him on a similar level to Andrew. Not to be insensitive to the areas of Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda, but the damage there was not nearly to the level of Andrew's. Most of the homes destroyed in Charley were mobile homes, while Andrew flattened almost everything in its path. People will think that only Cat 5's could cause that much destruction which is hardly true. Also, Charley was not very well organized, with the powerful winds on only one side of the eye. The other side had Cat 2 winds at most. I think 150 mph is just about right.

[Derek Ortt]

Just drove across the Charlotte Harbor bridge about 10 days ago. Trust me, much of the damage was not to mobile homes.

I believe that Andrew was closer to 155KT, so Charley at 140 would not place it in the same league.

As for Orlando, the 120-130 m.p.h. gusts for Orlando from the EV does seem to pale when we get a large cat 4 slamming into Punta Gorda, taking the same track as did Charley. We may then get sustained in that region. Had Charley have been Ivan's size, IMO, we'd be talking about the remains of Orlando

[Huckster]

Just drove across the Charlotte Harbor bridge about 10 days ago. Trust me, much of the damage was not to mobile homes.

I believe that Andrew was closer to 155KT, so Charley at 140 would not place it in the same league.

As for Orlando, the 120-130 m.p.h. gusts for Orlando from the EV does seem to pale when we get a large cat 4 slamming into Punta Gorda, taking the same track as did Charley. We may then get sustained in that region. Had Charley have been Ivan's size, IMO, we'd be talking about the remains of Orlando

What's the EV? and how high did the winds gust in the Orlando area from Charley? I thought 100-110 mph.