Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Well... it felt almost like summer at our house today. Forget spring!! In fact... I can remember quite a few summer days last year that did not feel as good as today.

It was 62.5 degrees here on Friday afternoon... the winds died down in the early morning and it felt REALLY warm in the sun. Wow. You can tell that sun angle is getting higher every day.

I may have missed some small details but my general forecast for the last 8 days was dead on. Today was incredible.

Latest GFS shows a cool, showery weekend as we thought.

But FORGET the cold air. Anyone who thought the GFS was real with its arctic air pouring to the southwest over Washington just does not get it.

Seriously.

Anthony and R-Dub have the right idea. This spring weather is awesome. I just cannot imagine hating this weather and patiently waiting for an arctic blast as the trees blossom and flowers bloom. Strange indeed.

You hate spring?? You're gonna hate Tuesday-Friday of this coming week. Here is a peek at Wednesday... that looks like a beautiful day in my book...

[W13]

37 F here, as of 4:17 AM

I won't be online until tommorow, since I am going down to Oregon for the day and night today. Talk to you all later!

[andycottle]

Good morning all. Looking at the latest 06z GFS and Canadain global model, it still appears that next week...15th through about roughtly the 17th...will be nice and sunny, though maybe a little cool at night as 850MB temps are 0 to -3C, but 500MB voricity heights being realitivly high at around 552 to 558DM. So daytime highs should turn out be in the mid 50`s and maybe even some upper 50`s as well. Next chance of showers comes in around next weekend.

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

A messy morning in Salt Lake City. After two inches of wet snow and a brief bout of freezing rain, it is currently pouring outside. Alot of the local roads are flooding due to clogged storm draines...and it's suppose to rain all day. But, elevations above 7k are getting heavy snow. At least some mountain range is getting decent snow. lol.

As for Seattle, a nice Rex block is forecasted to evolve beginning Tuesday of this upcoming week. Rex blocks are very common during El Nino years and they give the PNW unusually prolonged, dry periods. This Rex block is forecasted to take shape at 135W, so it won't be particularly warm with a dry, northerly flow...probably mostly sunny with seasonal temperatures of 45-50F. As for the extended, the GFS continues its ridiculous solution of an arctic boundary sliding down the British Columbia coast beginning Friday of this week. The European models continue the Rex block, while the Canadian is now leaning toward the GFS. Although the GFS is the most inaccurate of the bunch, if it continues this trend of colder weather I may eventually take notice.

In any event, this upcoming week looks like SPRING...maybe a little cooler. Should be an awesome week so get out and enjoy!! I'll update later tonight.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

A cool and wet morning..............

2/12/05 LK Goodwin WA
8:42:29 AM CURRENT
Sprinkles
Temperature (ºF) 40.3
Humidity (%) 100.0
Wind (mph) E 2.4
Daily Rain (") 0.02
Pressure ("Hg) 29.78
Dew Point: 40.3 ºF

[R-Dub]

Moderate rain and a temp of 41.0 degrees as of 10:20AM. Quite a contrast from yesterday.

[~Brennan~]

Yeah TT you were dead on with your forecast... I have to admit, that was a pretty close forecast when you predicted Seattle would get down to 40 and they got down to 29... Only 11 off, I'd call that dead on. I don't want to critisize you but you need to pay more attention to the surface maps... Surface air flow is more important here in the northwest than almost anywhere in the United States with the outflow areas, Mountain ranges, strait of Juan De Fuca... The upper air flow isn't the only thing that drives our temperatures... Spring like next week is crazy... The overnight lows are going to be as cold or colder than they were this last week and the high temperatures won't get close to spring like... Especially if we get a N to S pressure gradient early next week which would really cool down the daytime highs... Some words of advice TT, start learning to use surface maps and maybe you'll understand why we won't be in the low 60's next week.

[~Brennan~]

Come on where is everyone today...

[TT-SEA]

Bennan... you are so misguided.

I had the general pattern dead on. Why such a focus on overnight lows?? They are so undpredictable anyways. I did not notice any cold outflow when it was 60 degrees at my house yesterday and one degree shy of 60 in Bellevue.

You were ripping on me for saying it was going to be warm on Friday with southerly flow and sunshine. I even predicted the cloud pattern perfectly. Other than radiational cooling I was right on.

Here is the almost perfect ECMWF for Thursday morning. Where is the cold air??? Where???? Michigan... New York... Maine. Better watch out... only 2,000 miles away. It will be NORMAL this week. That means spring continues.

[andycottle]

Bennan... you are so misguided.

I had the general pattern dead on. Why such a focus on overnight lows?? They are so undpredictable anyways. I did not notice any cold outflow when it was 60 degrees at my house yesterday and one degree shy of 60 in Bellevue.

You were yelling at me about saying it was going to be warm on Friday with southerly flow and sunshine. I even predicted the cloud pattern perfectly. Christ sake... other than radiational cooling I was right on.

Here is the almost perfect ECMWF for Thursday morning. Where is the cold air??? Where???? Michigan... New York... Maine. Better watch out... only 2,000 miles away. It will NORMAL this week. That means spring continues.

Tim....if you would...please don`t say the Lords name in vein. Ok? I don`t like to see it said like that, and it kinda hurts me when it is said in vein. -- Andy


Ok...now back to weather. Cloudy and 41 degrees here at 6:50pm.

[andycottle]

Good evening all. Viewing tonight 12z and 18z GFS...Monday still appears to have to few light showers around, and only light amounts. 15th - 18th looks mostly sunny, and then partly cloudy for Friday into the weekend with maybe some showers by 18z Sunday. GEM model showing 500MB heights of 552 to 558DM, and ECMWF having heights of 552DM through this week and weekend. 850MB temps are near -3C during the work week, and then near -6C over the weekend. So looks like we can expect somwhat cool daytime highs for the upcoming week. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Was down in Lynnwood all day today, and it never stopped raining at all!! It just went between light, and moderate rain. Traffic everywhere was just horrible, took me for ever to get home tonight Since when did people in Western Wa forget how to drive in the wet stuff??? COME ON PEOPLE!!

Okay I feel better now

Currently light rain, and 38.7 degrees

[andycottle]

Hey Randy. Quite rainy here too, especaily during the mid to late afternoon and into about early evening time. While rain seemed moderate at times, I only managed to pick .08" of precip in my rain guage. Bit of a coolish day here also. Had a high of 46 with a low of 39.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

I apologize Andy. I did not mean to offend you. I will correct the posting now.

[andycottle]

Good evening again, folks.

Viewing the 00z GFS of tonight, Monday still features a few showers, but should be pretty scattered/isolated in nature. 15th - 18th looks generally dry and sunny, though maybe a slight chance of a sprinkel on Friday. For Saturday and Sunday...will go with partly to mostly cloudy skies as light sprinkle/shower activity tries to come our way. 850MB temps during this time are in the range of -6C early in the week, and warming to near -3C to 0C by around Friday or so. Then By Sunday...temps drop to a chilly -9C. 500MB heights are 552DM for this upcoming work week, with a 528MB voritictiy lobe droping right over us from the North, for 18z Saturday. 300MB Jet also in a good northly flow for the weekend...so we can expect somewhat cool temps this coming week.

-- Andy

[andycottle]

I apologize Andy. I did not mean to offend you. I will correct the posting now.

Thank you Tim for kindly fixing the post. That makes me feel better. And I except your apology. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Hmmm....the PSCZ could maybe get interesting tomorrow night. Lets hope so! But lets not jump the gun yet. Here`s and exerpt from the Seattle even forecast discussion.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS...WILL DIG TOWARD WRN WA AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REJUVENATE THE PSCZ...AND BRING MORE PCPN TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FT. THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES NEAR THE PSCZ WILL PROBABLY PICK UP ANOTHER 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MON MORNING. AND IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME FORM OF FROZEN PCPN AT TIMES OVER THE WRN WA LOWLAND...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS WITHIN THE PSCZ.

[TT-SEA]

Andy... unfortunately that probably means slop like last week.

[andycottle]

Well maybe...but we will see. And hey...maybe the PSCZ could get REAL active and maybe fire off a local T-Storm. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Things are really beginning to get interesting. The NWS is at least mentioning some wet snow in the C Zone. I am really encouraged that the flow will be true NW tomorrow night and not WNW. That means the C zone could slide down to south King County, and possibly give the very deserving folks down here a chance to see some snow. The GFS shows 850mb temps of -8 to -9 during the day on Monday. That is downright chilly! The foothills may have an east wind on Tuesday, but it will not be the warm type east wind that blew on Friday. The airmass is much colder this time. Things could really be fun if the 18z and new 0z are correct. They depict an offshore ridge extending well above the Arctic circle and a sharp and deep trough plunging down through western Canada and into WA, around day 6. Still too early to jump on this just yet, but I like what I see.

In general the progs next week are highly unusual and very different from the patterns that have dominated our region over the past several years. Most models are showing a N to S surface pressure gradient extending from above the arctic circle to northern CA later next week. If that is true cold Arctic air will be able to creep down through BC and eventually invade WA. The thing that is really odd is how the upper level high pressure center assoicated with the offshore Rex block is shown to drift north and be the "seed" for another ridge to explosively develop around day 5 or 6. This could end up being a decent late season cold spell.

TT...I will grant you that your prediction for warm high temps on Friday was impressive, but the lows for Thur and Fri were more than a bit off. It is difficult to predict radiational cooling and "fake" cold, but I have it down to a science. That is how I knew the lows late in the week would be far colder than you were predicting. The average low at my place this week was 29.1 degrees. Certainly a bit on the nippy side I would say. As I have said before, I love cold no matter what way, shape, or form it shows up in. It is a very fun endeavor to try to figure out exactly how cold the lows will be in a clear, weak offshore flow situation. The entire key is in the surface pressure gradients. It has to with how N to S or E to W the isobars are and how tight the gradients are.