My preliminary forecast for the 2005 season.

[cycloneye]

Its going to take me a little longer than I thought because the lady who gave the presentation, doesn't have the ppt with her at the present time. If I can get it, I'll post it if I can

Derek any information yet about the QBO not being a big factor?

[Derek Ortt]

I know it is accepted as no correlation and no longer used by NOAA. Plus, there is no physical explaniation as to why QBO could enhance TC formation

Still no word on the PPT. I'll ask about it again on Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

I know it is accepted as no correlation and no longer used by NOAA. Plus, there is no physical explaniation as to why QBO could enhance TC formation

Still no word on the PPT. I'll ask about it again on Tuesday.

Derek any new word on the PPT because time is going fast and I and other members would want to know if the QBO is not important anymore in any anaylisis before the season starts.

[Stormsfury]

I'm not sure if the ppt file is online anywhere and I will need to look at it more closely (I'll ask her tomorrow about this project if I go into the office in the morning)

One major problem regarding using QBO is: what is the physical mechanism that causes the correlation? This has yet to be answered by anyone

QBO is a factor WRT to mid-latitude weather (more dominant during the winter months), which creates different synoptic patterns which can or cannot be conducive for stronger tropical cyclones to form ...

And I should have added this...

Probability of a Hurricane becoming an Intense Hurricane...

W QBO: 51.4%
E QBO: 23.1%

Your findings suggest that IF the QBO doesn't actually play a direct role, then there MUST be an indirect result of why the chances of an MH are 2 to 1 during W QBO's vs. E QBO's. There are so many other factors to be judged and weighed, but ASSUMING that the findings from TWW are from when QBO datasets have been available (1948-present), almost 60 years of QBO data must play some role, no matter how direct or indirect.

Again, the QBO may or may not play a sufficient role, but there are so many other factors. The weight of the ENSO factor seems to play a strong role. But also remember, since 1995, the ATC has been above average (to seemingly well above average). 2003, the signal was so overwhelming that it frankly was the dominant player, GLOBALLY.... with a lack of a Niño, or Niña, and an E QBO, the CV train got rolling and the overall Azores/Bermuda High setup kept them coming and coming, including Isabel. Sometimes, we have seemingly seen some systems develop tropically, when conditions were only BARELY favorable for development, and I'm NOT afraid to say that the ATC has something to do with that enhancement.

Obviously, something that hasn't been mentioned besides ABV normal SSTA's is the ACTUAL SSTA' anomaly placement, which offers a HUGE indicator of where positive and negative height anomalies will exist in the mid-levels. This ultimately will translate where ridges/troughs will setup and gives indicators in advance (and with a bit of climo thrown in) and can give a MR/LR idea of when an active period, tropically speaking, may commence (Pattern recognition).

[cycloneye]

Thanks SF for all that info about QBO that I was looking for

Yes there are many factors to look to when forecasting for a season goes and the QBO is only one of many but as you said it may or not be important in the final anaylisis.Those ssta's are warm in the tropical atlantic east of the islands combined with a fairly strong bermuda high will guarantee a pattern of low latitud systems moving west from the eastern atlantic. The ATC in my view has been a key factor of why the seasons haved been very active since 1995 with the exception of 1997 when a strong el nino occured but it looks like ENSO will be in a neutral status in 2005.