Program predicts hurricane damage
By JOAN D. LAGUARDIA
jlaguardia@news-press.com
Published by news-press.com on January 27, 2005
Punta Gorda — where Hurricane Charley came aground as national forecasters predicted a hit near Tampa Bay — now is pioneering the nation's most cutting-edge program to predict hurricane damage.
The computer program is more effective than any tool used by the National Weather Service and government emergency response teams when Hurricane Charley hit Aug. 13.
"Let's just say it's more informative than what you see from the National Weather Service," said Rick Burgess, an urban planner who works with geographic information systems in Punta Gorda.
Weather aside, Southwest Florida — from New Port Richey to Naples — qualifies for the national pilot program because Burgess and others in Punta Gorda's Community Development Department already were using advanced geographic information systems.
The information is more "intense" because it overlays city street and land parcel maps, and predicts actual wind velocity along a predicted track, Burgess said.
That kind of local detail is not available to national weather forecasters.
Staffers from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, who congregated in Charlotte County after Charley, decided to test the new software there. GIS programs can identify every parcel of land and exactly what and who are on it.
"This pilot project, in short, is designed to do something that in the past I don't think has been done before," Burgess said.
"We can actually take technology and make it a decision management tool from beginning to end."
The yearlong pilot program officially began last week.
"We are at the bottom floor of being able to use this capability for all phases of emergency management," said Dan Trescott, senior planner for the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Commission.
Officially, the computer program is called HAZUS-MH, an acronym based on "hazard U.S." and "multi-hazard." It was developed by FEMA to estimate damage to hospitals, schools, police and fire stations and to identify populations and residential and commercial buildings at risk.
The program can be used before or immediately after a storm so more efficient recovery efforts can begin within hours, instead of days. More accurate decisions than ever before can be made quickly about the use of resources.
For example, Burgess said, the new program could map out what kind of debris will lie along a hurricane path, how many truckloads will clear it, the route the trucks should take and what kind of traffic control and cleanup will be needed on the routes.
"The people in solid waste management can plan. They can work with public safety. You can see all of that when you look at the GIS information mapping. You can't see that when you are looking at a tabular report," he said.
Burgess and FEMA technicians first tried to use the new damage prediction program after Hurricane Charley. Software glitches hurt the program's accuracy.
"Between Charley and Ivan, they modified the software twice already," Burgess said.
It worked well after Hurricane Ivan, which hit Sept. 16. The city used it to decide whether evacuation was necessary and plan for debris removal, Burgess said.
The basic program already is used by communities nationwide to estimate risk of earthquakes and floods. What's new is using HAZUS-MH for hurricanes. That element became available nationwide for the first time this month. It is free for users.
The pilot project started with a Charlotte County meeting for potential users from Hillsborough to Collier counties. Technical staff, finance directors, solid waste directors, emergency management and planners came to it, Burgess said.
The pilot project will train key personnel in Southwest Florida to effectively use HAZUS-MH by March. They then will be free to train their counterparts throughout Florida.
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Seems like a post storm helper and Florida needed that last year. If these computers can't forecast them they may as well help recovery.
