The NAO is Tanking!!

[madscientist]

I'm not sure how long this will last, or if it is connected with the Blizzard of 2K5. But this looks like very good news for those who are still waiting for their big snowstorm. The index is now at -2. I find it amazing that even with the extremely positive NAO since November, record cold still found its way into much of the US. If the NAO stays negative, we would be in for a period of extremely cold weather. Somehow, I feel that February and March will be very cold and snowy for much of the Eastern US, including the Deep South.

[SnowGod]

If you look at Ensemble data, the NAO may tank in February or it may be a weak block. Don't know. My view is that it returns close to Neutral by early February and then tanks around the 7-10th.

[madscientist]

If you look at Ensemble data, the NAO may tank in February or it may be a weak block. Don't know. My view is that it returns close to Neutral by early February and then tanks around the 7-10th.

Given how positive the NAO has been through the winter, a neutral is still very good news, IMO.

[Stormsfury]

The record cold came about b/c of the PNA pattern out west when the ridge in Western North America built in ... this in turn opened the door for cold, arctic air to spill into the Central/Eastern US, but w/out the -NAO signal, the cold came hard, and left just as fast, only to be reinforced with another shot, but it wasn't by any means a sustainable non-stop cold ...

SF