Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

The 06Zrun of the GFS again shows nothing but mild temperatures through early February.

As disappointing as that is... I am just reporting the facts.

[AnthonyC]

I guess we can still hope for a zonal flow to replenish our snowpack. If we don't get some solid snow in the mountains, our summer water is going to really hurt. I guess the best thing for the next four, five weeks would be a zonal flow. I'll pray for that. We need a good 5-6 feet in the mountains.

[AnthonyC]

And I guess a negative PNA and AO doesn't always bring cold/snow to the Pacific Northwest? Because looking at latest models, there's no sign of cold/snow and there's suppose to be a negative PNA and AO at the end of the month/beginning of February.

[W13]

Don't worry guys, I am 99.99% sure that the models will make dramatic changes before the end of January/start of Febuary. They always do when something is more than a week out.

[R-Dub]

Holy smokes! I figured last evening was so quiet on this thread, I didn't bother to take another look. 2 pages worth of debates! Well everyone here I think knows my stand on what I think will happen the rest of this winter, so I will leave it at that for the moment.

1/22/05 LK Goodwin WA
8:43:56 AM CURRENT
LT Rain
Temperature (ºF) 51.6
Humidity (%) 88.3
Wind (mph) ESE 1.8
Daily Rain (") 0.02
Pressure ("Hg) 29.99
Dew Point: 48.3 ºF

[snow_wizzard]

Hey everyone...Just remember that most people in the east were ready to write off the rest of this winter when the trough was in the west. Remember that? There is still a long way to go. On top of that the MJO will switch to negative soon. That has brought us below normal temps every time it has happened this season. The ensemble mean continues to show the ridge further west than the operational model. This is far from decided!

[R-Dub]

Anthony you have a PM

[AnthonyC]

Looks like Lynnwood/Mukilteo/Everett/Sequim will all be under a rain shadow with a strong WSW flow aloft. It's once again VERY windy up in Mukilteo...it always seems to happen when we're under a rain shadow. R-Dub, I got your PM and I sent you back a message.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Not too windy here yet Anthony, looks like we are still having some shower activity. Have a feeling we will be shadowed today as well though.

Well it doesn't look like NCEP guys know what will happen in the extened either, here is a snipit...............

A LOWER THAN AVG FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD.

LONGER TERM MEANS AT D+8 SHOWING THE STRONG ZONAL PAC FLOW TO
BEGIN TO SPLIT INTO DISTINCT STREAMS WITH A RETURN OF SWRN RIDGING
BY ECMWF IN THE SRN STREAM WITH FLATTER SRN STREAM BY GFS. D+11
TREND BASED OFF GFS SHOWING A RETURN OF ERN PAC RIDGING ALONG 140W
WITH A DOWNSTREAM BROAD TROF. THIS KEEPS BELOW NORMAL HTS SWD FROM
THE MID ATLC REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH ABOVE NORMAL HT
ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF CANADA/NEW ENG AND ACROSS THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WWD TO THE EPAC. 240 HR ECMWF IN THE SAME TIME
RANGE STILL KEEPING ITS D+8 TREND OF MORE ERN CONUS RIDGING AND
SWRN CONUS WITH CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAMS OVER
NEW ENG.
ROSENSTEIN

[R-Dub]

Just another example of how the models even just a day or two out can be so wrong!!!!!!! Doesn't look all that wet now, certainly not the pineapple express that the models have been saying.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 930 AM PST SAT JAN 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES ALONG 118W WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SW FROM WA AND SRN BC TO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AROUND 25N/148W. WARM FRONTAL PCPN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...IS FALLING OVER WRN WA THIS MORNING. THE OTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND THE TROUGH ITSELF HAS BEGUN SHIFTING EWD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG JET UPSTREAM. OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CAST DOUBT ON WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL GET ENOUGH RAIN TO PRODUCE FLOODING. PCPN CURRENTLY FALLING IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE NORTH COAST -- AND PROBABLY THE NW PART OF THE OLYMPICS...IS GETTING MORE THE .20 INCH PER HOUR ...BUT THE HIGHEST RATES OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF OLYMPICS AND THE NORTH CASCADES APPEAR TO BE ONLY AROUND 0.1 INCH PER HOUR. THE HEAVIER PCPN REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE JET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MINOR RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE A LULL IN THE PCPN TONIGHT. THE RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IMPORTANTLY...WITH THE GFS GOING MUCH DRIER. IT SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMING MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED...WHICH KEEPS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER WRN WA...THE JET CORE OUTSIDE 130W...AND MOST OF THE PCPN TO OUR NW. IT ALSO KEEPS THE TROUGH SPLIT...WITH THE SRN SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA ON MON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES IN THE BAROCLINIC BAND AND ONLY MARGINAL CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS...I THINK IT IS SMART TO KEEP A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL THERE IS REALLY NO LONGER A THREAT -- AND THAT TIME IS NOT HERE YET.

THERE IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCE BEYOND MON AS WELL. THE IDEA OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL TEMPS AND FREEZING LEVELS LOOKS GOOD...BUT I`M NOT PUTTING MUCH STOCK IN THE DETAILS. MCDONNAL

[snow_wizzard]

If the models are blowing it at 24 hours, how can they be accurate at day 10 or 15?

Another thing to consider....The analogs (closest matches to the observed pattern expected at day 8) for the last couple of days have been from years that had significant late season cold spells. I am impressed to see that 1951, 1954, 1955, 1961, 1985 and other have been popping up. All of those years had significant cold and snowy weather after the mild patterns similar to what we are in now. Sure there are some analogs from milder years, but a good 1/3 to 1/2 are from good years. I am still very confident on this!

[snow_wizzard]

It just dawned on me....they are saying the baroclinic band is further west than the models had been expecting. That menas the ridge is further west than expected. Could that mean the retrogression has already begun? If so, it sure seems likely the ultimate position of the ridge will be futrther west than previously thought. That is good news in my book!

[AnthonyC]

Snow_Wizzard,

I always like your optimisism!!! Hopefully that is indeed the case. We just need a highly amplified ridge at 150W. That would bring all that arctic air through Western Washington. We also need a Southeastern ridge to develop.

[TT-SEA]

Wizzard... how do you determine analog years? I have always wondered that when the NCEP talks about it.

If only 1/3 to 1/2 are from good years... then even by your predictions there is more than a 50% of nothing happening.

[snow_wizzard]

The computer matches the current pattern or the pattern expected at a future date to past weather patterns. The best matches are called the anaologs, and the date and year of those are given are given for every GFS run and the ensemble. The analog comparisons go back to 1950, which tells me they must have 500mb maps for every day back to 1950...I would love to get my hands on those!

As for the % of the analogs that are from good years... Some of the bad ones are years that had NO cold weather so they are disqualified as being valid matches to this winter, since we have already had cold weather.

[TT-SEA]

Is there a link to a site that I can look up analog years?

[cloud9]

OK you guys, this is getting depressing. I haven't turned my heater on in over a week. Maybe we should get together and do a snow dance or something

[R-Dub]

Tim and Justin you have another PM

1/22/05 LK Goodwin WA
12:07:34 AM CURRENT
LT Rain
Temperature (ºF) 51.9
Humidity (%) 89.6
Wind (mph) ESE
Daily Rain (") 0.04
Pressure ("Hg) 30.01
Dew Point: 49.0 ºF

Cloud 9, I don't think a snow dance is needed yet, I think things will come together nicely by Feb. Though maybe it wouldn't hurt

[cloud9]

[R-Dub]

Another thing I noticed when I was copying the tapes is when we had the arctic blast of Jan/first of Feb 1996 is there was a scene on the footage from the east coast where there was major flooding from the heavy snowfall they had recieved a week or two before that had melted causing the flood. Sound familar? Right now parts of the east coast are getting clobbered by snow. In a couple of weeks flooding for them and arctic cold for us??? We shall see, but it sure sounds familar.