Pacific Northwest Weather

[W13]

I am of the opinion the GFS is going to be of no help to us for a while. Right now every run looks completely different than the ones before it. The latest 0z is much less amplified (at least at day 9). Besides that the operational model and the ensemble are in terrible agreement on where to place the offshore ridge. At this point I am going to trust climatology over the models and continue to predict a coming cold spell. Historically speaking, that is very likely after the pattern we have observed this week. I heard many people comment today...this weather is almost spooky and is probably going to get even with us at some point. Just the opinions of some average folks.

Yes, the GFS is a very, very inconsistent model beyond Day 3 or so. I will look at the Canadian and Euro models tommorow and see if and if so where they have the ridge setting up.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS has not been that bad. Its just not showing you what you want to see.

Unfortunately thats because its not coming guys.

The theme has been pretty similar... zonal then ridging. Nothing too amplified.

Look for it to be cool at the start and then warmer.

Look at the PNA monitor... all ensemble members show the same basic theme. Slightly negative then postive.

[andycottle]

Tim and all. From what I see on the PNA 13day forecast, is that it goes just a tad negative by Feb. 1st...like around -2. Though that doesn`t exactly sujust bitter cold weather. -- Andy



PS: NAO 13 day forecast also looking a slightly negative by first of the month.

[TT-SEA]

Here is what I am watching...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html

[TT-SEA]

In the previous link...

Look at the PNA forecast compared to actual even in the 14 day period at the bottom... pretty darn close. The forecast definitely nails the trend.

I have no doubt that we will slip a little negative next week and then go back to positive. That means ridging and above normal temperatures.

Spring is lurking close behind.

The day is drawing near when you guys will finally admit that I have been right all along!!

[andycottle]

Hahahaha ! We will get more snow before winter in done. You just watch. We will see more snow. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Ohhh maybe a slushy inch some night in the middle of February.

No arctic blast... no widespread snow. The best chance for a snowy, cold period is between December 1st and February 15th.

We have 3 weeks left. And nothing will happen for the next 2 weeks at least.

I say that for the snow forecasts on here to be right we need at least 4 inches over a wide area and high temperatures below freezing for a few days.

That will not be happening the rest of this winter season.

[andycottle]

If we all keep thinking snow...then maybe we get a BIG snow. -- Andy

[skipnfamily]

Everyone good...Warm sucks...Its supposed to be cold... Stupid weather..

[~Brennan~]

Well SeaTT or whatever you are called, in the past, we usually get our cold spells 10 days to a month after a pineapple express as we have been seeing and will continue to see until the end of the weekend... That gives us between February 1st and 20th for so bigtime winter blast. I think you need to pack your bags and head to SEATAC... Why do you not want it to snow or get cold so bad?

[andycottle]

Well....we can`t always blame the weather. If we didn`t have weather, there would be no vegetation, no animales, no humans....nothing!
Ok...going too bed now.. Good night you all. And see ya in the morning or tomorrow evening.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I am a bit mystified why you always ignore the hard evidence I give that it will get cold...the models are not infallable. You asked me what the winter of 1889-90 was like and I told you cold and snowy throughout. The guy said this winter is following that one. I will concede this event may take longer than I orginally thought, but it IS going to happen. This season has been tremendously similar to 1961-62. In that year we had very mild weather from late Jan though about Feb 20. After that we had a major cold and snowy period. In fact, if you look at the Palmer records you will see March 1962 had a tremendous amount of snow.

If the remainder of this winter does not deliver the goods at some point, I will hang up my predicting hat. I say that because I will arrive at the conclusion the weather around here has gotten to the point where it is beyond predicting. The evidence is absolute that it will get cold. Do you think I'm lying?

The thing that really upsets me is that you have taken away all hope, not only from this winter, but from every winter for the rest of our lives. I have told you so many times that this is all cyclical. We have had mild periods like this before, and we always come out of them.

[TT-SEA]

Brennan... this has been a friendly debate. No need to get angry or take anything personally.

I can want snow and still objectively argue that it will not happen.

Why should I ignore evidence and just forecast snow because I want it to snow?? That seems dishonest to me. There is no model that shows anything close to widespread lowland snow in the next 2 weeks.

They mentioned on the news tonight that the last time the ski resorts closed like this in mid-season was 1981. I had mentioned 1981 in a previous post. There was a week of warm (record setting) weather and 2 Pineapple Express events in mid-January of 1981. There was no snow in February or March of 1981. Though if we had been having this debate back then you guys would have insisted that snow was going to follow our incredibly warm weather and the Pineapple Express. You would have been wrong.

Bottom line... I do want snow. I would love to see Seattle buried in 2 feet of snow tomorrow. But I study the models and trends closely and look at historical information. I have the opinion that no matter how much I want snow... a big snowstorm is not in the cards this year. Thats my educated opinion. I could be wrong. But you guys could easily be wrong as well.

Still... its a friendly debate. You don't have to tell me to leave town!!

[TT-SEA]

Wizzard... you could be right about the cyclical nature.

I just know that numerous years since 1990 have been the warmest the world has seen in recorded history. I really think the climate is changing (whatever the cause).

In Seattle... summers are warmer and drier... winters are warmer.
That means that looking back 50 or 100 years ago may not help you predict the future.

I have tried forecasting based on historical records and find it very frustrating.

I did not take away snow for the rest of your life... if I am right then global warming did that. If I am wrong... then you have your snow.

I did not DO anything.

[snow_wizzard]

1980-81 was not the same pattern as this winter. I remember that one, and we never even got close to having cold weather that winter. This winter has already set a precedence for cold weather. We have a had nothing but a ton of bad luck this winter. !980 - 81 was simply warm and noithing but warm.

[~Brennan~]

I am not putting down anyone. It is just you come out so negative but then behind it all you say you want snow... You also say that you look at the the history of this stuff and by that you think we won't get cold or snow. That doesn't make any sense because if you are talking about history, it is in our odds to get snow or at least a cold spell. Also, you ask why should you ignore evidence and just forecast snow because you want it? If you were to say we won't get cold for the rest of the winter like you are doing now, you would be ignoring evidence... From what I see the only thing you are basing your predictions on are the Operational GFS model and the PNA forecast for 2 plus weeks out. If you ask me that isn't very accurate... Best wishes to your forecasts, I guarentee you they will be wrong.

[TT-SEA]

You "guarantee" a widespread snow event and an arctic blast in the next two months?

How can you guarantee that?

There are no guarantees in forecasting weather. Certainly not in forecasting snow in Seattle. It practically takes the planets to align to get a good dump here.

You read my comments as negative because you want me to say we are going to get lots of snow. I am not being negative... just honest.

There are lots of people that get mad at the weatherman on TV when he forecasts bad weather... as if its the weatherman's fault that it will rain on their golf game. Its comical.

[TT-SEA]

Wizzard... the weather pattern in 1961-62 was very different than this year. Example... Southern California was quite dry that year. You have to take into account the amazing rain down there in October, December, and January

The records of Southern California also tell a story about the pattern along the West Coast.

We have to look at the whole picture... not just specific Seattle weather... to draw conclusions about the overall pattern.

Thats why I mentioned 1889-90. But obviously if it was snowy up here all winter than we do not have a match there either.

I am telling you... global climate change makes this type of forecasting based on history an exercise in futility.

[snow_wizzard]

I am just saying that we have had direct matches (analogs) with the winter of 1961 - 62 on a number of occaisions. I am only 80% sure about the cold. I was just studying the Madden - Julien Oscillation (MJO) for this winter, and I guarantee you we will have a window of opportunity coming up. Every time the MJO has gone negative west of 140E longitude this season, we have gotten cold. We are currently at the peak of the positive phase of the MJO...it is strongly positive west of 140E. It should go negative there within the next 10 - 12 days. That will be a huge test for us. When the MJO is minus in the western equatorial Pacific, it favors a high amp ridge WELL off the west coast. I assure you I have plenty of amunition at my disposal to prove my positions!

I still maintian that my greatest predictions have been made from using past history. I have made some jaw droppers!

[AnthonyC]

And the debate continues...lol. I hate to do this, but I agree with TT-SEA. Looking at the latest GFS models, there's NO sign of arctic air or even cooler weather for the Pacific Northwest. There's a "slight" trough over the area January 26-27, but 500 mb heights are only down to 536...nothing to write home about. And the latest models bring that highly amplified ridge even further east...WRONG DIRECTION...to right over Eastern Washington. 500 mb heights go up into the 560s which is unbelievable for this time of year. And to top it off, the Northeast goes back in the arctic freeze. I honestly think it's time to write off the rest of winter...if we don't see arctic air within the next three, four weeks...there's just no chance. And it looks like something similar to last year is starting to happen...strong ridge in the west, big trough in the east. The pattern went from the middle of January through March last year...I see no change this year. Hopefully next winter will be better. If not, I'm leaving Seattle!! lol.

Anthony

Currently 55 F with light rain.