It has been a wet start of 2005 for San Juan and NE carib
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cycloneye
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It has been a wet start of 2005 for San Juan and NE carib
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 83 219 PM 90 1981 82 1 82
MINIMUM 73 514 AM 64 1956 71 2 70
AVERAGE 78 76 2 76
PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.16 0.90 1959 0.10 0.06 0.31
MONTH TO DATE 3.72 1.57 2.15 1.89
SINCE DEC 1 8.37 6.14 2.23 7.14
SINCE JAN 1 3.72 1.57 2.15 1.89
The persistent high pressure in the western atlantic for over 3 weeks has caused strong winds that move patches of clouds towards the north coast of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.So far as the data shows 3.72 inches of rain haved fallen in the San Juan international airport and that is over the normal amount for this month.I haved heard some comments in the radio here that this rainy period Puerto Rico has is caused by el nino but I dont think that is the case.Also they are saying so much rain may signal an active caribbean when the hurricane season arrives but I dont think that the more rainy period has nothing to do with what will happen 6-8 months ahead.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Jan 18, 2005 6:43 am, edited 3 times in total.
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weatherwindow
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a question for you, cycloneye......here in sfla we have some quasi-climatological indicators for the coming hurricane season....the most popular of which is the dry may as a prognosticator for a sfla landfall during the season. do you have a similar body of popular beliefs with regard to hurricane season in puerto rico? 
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cycloneye
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weatherwindow wrote:a question for you, cycloneye......here in sfla we have some quasi-climatological indicators for the coming hurricane season....the most popular of which is the dry may as a prognosticator for a sfla landfall during the season. do you have a similar body of popular beliefs with regard to hurricane season in puerto rico?
Well if there is an indicator about the future of the hurricane seasons with many months in advance would be the very warm temps in the winter months here.
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weatherwindow
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a question for you, luis.....here in sfla we have some quasi-climatological indicators for the coming hurricane season....the most popular of which is the dry may as a prognosticator for a sfla landfall during the season. do you have a similar body of popular beliefs with regard to hurricane season in puerto rico?
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weatherwindow
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cycloneye
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weatherwindow wrote:i was referring more to traditional popular beliefs with regard to hurricane season. normally, every area has its peculiar hurricane lore....thanks, luis
Dry Mays,Junes and Julys are indicators here.There haved been many years of dry periods in those months and the season turned not too active such as the most recent very dry spell of 1994 in May,June and July of that year and PR didn't haved any threats of storms nor canes.
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cycloneye
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afdsju
puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion ... cor sca
national weather service san juan pr
302 pm ast sun jan 16 2005
. synopsis ... at upper levels ... a weak trough will roll over the area
ahead of a deep long wave trough much farther north. this trough
will move into place on monday well north of hispaniola and numerous
short waves will migrate through the area during the next 7 days
causing weak undulations in the westerly wind direction and keeping
wind velocities over the area between 50 and 80 knots beginning
monday evening. winds appear to be strongest from the southwest
friday and saturday.
at mid levels ... low pressure has dropped briefly south of 20 north
about 650 miles east northeast of san juan.... but will dissipate and
move northeast before tuesday. mid level weather will then be most
influenced by short wave troughs moving through the flow but
weakening considerably before arriving in the local area. flow is
generally west southwest the entire 10 - day period.
at lower levels ... low pressure is sliding up the east coast about
300 miles offshore and will wedge between a strong high pressure and
canada early in the week. this will cause gradients to relax
dramatically and will cut off the influence of the ridge extending
southwest from the receding high pressure system moving into the
northeast atlantic. high pressure over the southeast united states
will move off shore mid week and cause winds to increase somewhat
over the area ... but another strong high pressure aided by the long
wave trough at mid and upper levels will cause gradients to relax
again on friday. although high pressure ridges in almost
immediately from the east near 22 north ... another low pressure grows
over the western atlantic on monday of the following week and
gradients relax again.
&&
. discussion ... the midlevel trough has continued to pump drier air
into the area as evidenced by the precipitable water remaining near
1 inch over isabela and the deep isothermal layer present between
707 mb and 575 mb. this in turn has kept today somewhat drier than
yesterday ... though small showers have continued to pepper the
atlantic waters ... and significant showers have developed over san
german ... sabana grande ... guanica ... guayanilla ... ponce. strong
sunshine and convergence in the northeast wind flow were clearly
factors in this ... and these showers should dissipate very quickly as
sunset approaches.
the movement of the long wave trough into a position north of
hispaniola will cause a fundamental change in the character of the
weather pattern ... but not a particularly great change in the
weather. previously ... northeast flow was approaching the area from
the northeast coming out of a quasi permanent high pressure over the
mid atlantic loaded with showers and low level humidity. now ... with
low pressure at mid and upper levels beginning to form ... we will see
a trough and boundary from the northwest approach and stall over the
area and this will accentuate the shower activity in the vicinity of
that boundary. because the flow is still basically out of the
east ... this does not seem to change the moisture content of the air
mass ... especially since the boundary appears to dissipate in the
general vicinity of puerto rico and the u. s. virgin islands friday
through sunday. nor does it change the areas which will receive the
most frequent rainfall ... those being the northeast coast ... mainly at
night. so the pattern has changed but the weather will not.
that the boundary will stall near the area is also well illustrated
by the fact that the gfs has had little consistency in the
run - to - run surface winds forecast. in one run there is 10 to 15 knot
east winds over the island and in the next a col develops over the
area and winds become very weak. which of these will be correct may
not be possible to tell as far out as thursday or friday ... but with
the strong low pressures digging into our quasi permanent ridge at
20 - 25 north weak winds seemed to be a better bet than winds of 10 20
knots straight out of the east. later model runs will clarify how
far the trough will influence our weather and then better pops
estimates will be possible. until then we look for scattered to
numerous showers over most of the area from about monday night
through thursday ... and showers in northerly flow on friday may
continue for the north coast of puerto rico and to a lesser extent
the u. s. virgin islands. if the band lingers it may also be a wet
weekend. although amounts will not be heavy ... the ground is still
completely saturated ... so the danger of mudslides cannot be
discounted ... especially from wednesday on.
ukmet and gfs tend to disagree on how much moisture will be present
at 850 mb over the western atlantic behind the frontal boundary that
comes into the area on thursday. at this time ... favor the ukmet
which shows a distinct boundary and a strong band of moisture with
it ... as opposed to the gfs which shows 95+ percent of relative
humidity in a large 1000 mile wide mass behind the boundary. this
may mean a little more drying behind the north winds of friday
afternoon ... but cannot discount the better humidity in the gfs and
the presence of many shallow... quick moving showers piling into the
cordillera central. the model also shows surface winds turning
southerly in response to 850 to 770 mb winds becoming very light
southerly thursday and friday and at times sunday and monday too.
light winds at these altitudes does not bode well for moderate to
fresh winds at the surface ... and thus another reason to keep a lid
on wind speeds over the next 7 to 9 days.
&&
. marine ... seas have been high over the area and the models continue
to advertise 11 foot seas in the atlantic. the french buoy.. in full
exposure to the prevailing east northeast flow of the last
week ... was reporting 12. 5 feet this morning. however ... puerto ricos
protected shores to the east are not receiving much of this wave
action and north shores appear to have insufficient exposure to the
wave action to produce more than 8 to 9 foot seas. since no reports
to the contrary have been received have not followed the model
guidance in agreement with previous forecasters.
models forecast diminishing seas ... though only to 7 feet in the
atlantic until wednesday ... and then the next front and strong low
pressure system appears to be generating a new round of high swell
in the 9 to 10 foot range. will carry this forecast in the grids
since the swell train is initially out of the northwest and then
directly out of the north and normal to the northern coastline. seas
in the caribbean ... however ... are shadowed by the virgin islands and
puerto rico and winds over the area will have decreased greatly
later in the week. seas in the caribbean will fall to as little as 3
feet on friday before increasing to 4 to 5 feet over the weekend.
Looks like the wet period will continue in the next few days as the very long discussion from the San Juan NWS office says.
puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion ... cor sca
national weather service san juan pr
302 pm ast sun jan 16 2005
. synopsis ... at upper levels ... a weak trough will roll over the area
ahead of a deep long wave trough much farther north. this trough
will move into place on monday well north of hispaniola and numerous
short waves will migrate through the area during the next 7 days
causing weak undulations in the westerly wind direction and keeping
wind velocities over the area between 50 and 80 knots beginning
monday evening. winds appear to be strongest from the southwest
friday and saturday.
at mid levels ... low pressure has dropped briefly south of 20 north
about 650 miles east northeast of san juan.... but will dissipate and
move northeast before tuesday. mid level weather will then be most
influenced by short wave troughs moving through the flow but
weakening considerably before arriving in the local area. flow is
generally west southwest the entire 10 - day period.
at lower levels ... low pressure is sliding up the east coast about
300 miles offshore and will wedge between a strong high pressure and
canada early in the week. this will cause gradients to relax
dramatically and will cut off the influence of the ridge extending
southwest from the receding high pressure system moving into the
northeast atlantic. high pressure over the southeast united states
will move off shore mid week and cause winds to increase somewhat
over the area ... but another strong high pressure aided by the long
wave trough at mid and upper levels will cause gradients to relax
again on friday. although high pressure ridges in almost
immediately from the east near 22 north ... another low pressure grows
over the western atlantic on monday of the following week and
gradients relax again.
&&
. discussion ... the midlevel trough has continued to pump drier air
into the area as evidenced by the precipitable water remaining near
1 inch over isabela and the deep isothermal layer present between
707 mb and 575 mb. this in turn has kept today somewhat drier than
yesterday ... though small showers have continued to pepper the
atlantic waters ... and significant showers have developed over san
german ... sabana grande ... guanica ... guayanilla ... ponce. strong
sunshine and convergence in the northeast wind flow were clearly
factors in this ... and these showers should dissipate very quickly as
sunset approaches.
the movement of the long wave trough into a position north of
hispaniola will cause a fundamental change in the character of the
weather pattern ... but not a particularly great change in the
weather. previously ... northeast flow was approaching the area from
the northeast coming out of a quasi permanent high pressure over the
mid atlantic loaded with showers and low level humidity. now ... with
low pressure at mid and upper levels beginning to form ... we will see
a trough and boundary from the northwest approach and stall over the
area and this will accentuate the shower activity in the vicinity of
that boundary. because the flow is still basically out of the
east ... this does not seem to change the moisture content of the air
mass ... especially since the boundary appears to dissipate in the
general vicinity of puerto rico and the u. s. virgin islands friday
through sunday. nor does it change the areas which will receive the
most frequent rainfall ... those being the northeast coast ... mainly at
night. so the pattern has changed but the weather will not.
that the boundary will stall near the area is also well illustrated
by the fact that the gfs has had little consistency in the
run - to - run surface winds forecast. in one run there is 10 to 15 knot
east winds over the island and in the next a col develops over the
area and winds become very weak. which of these will be correct may
not be possible to tell as far out as thursday or friday ... but with
the strong low pressures digging into our quasi permanent ridge at
20 - 25 north weak winds seemed to be a better bet than winds of 10 20
knots straight out of the east. later model runs will clarify how
far the trough will influence our weather and then better pops
estimates will be possible. until then we look for scattered to
numerous showers over most of the area from about monday night
through thursday ... and showers in northerly flow on friday may
continue for the north coast of puerto rico and to a lesser extent
the u. s. virgin islands. if the band lingers it may also be a wet
weekend. although amounts will not be heavy ... the ground is still
completely saturated ... so the danger of mudslides cannot be
discounted ... especially from wednesday on.
ukmet and gfs tend to disagree on how much moisture will be present
at 850 mb over the western atlantic behind the frontal boundary that
comes into the area on thursday. at this time ... favor the ukmet
which shows a distinct boundary and a strong band of moisture with
it ... as opposed to the gfs which shows 95+ percent of relative
humidity in a large 1000 mile wide mass behind the boundary. this
may mean a little more drying behind the north winds of friday
afternoon ... but cannot discount the better humidity in the gfs and
the presence of many shallow... quick moving showers piling into the
cordillera central. the model also shows surface winds turning
southerly in response to 850 to 770 mb winds becoming very light
southerly thursday and friday and at times sunday and monday too.
light winds at these altitudes does not bode well for moderate to
fresh winds at the surface ... and thus another reason to keep a lid
on wind speeds over the next 7 to 9 days.
&&
. marine ... seas have been high over the area and the models continue
to advertise 11 foot seas in the atlantic. the french buoy.. in full
exposure to the prevailing east northeast flow of the last
week ... was reporting 12. 5 feet this morning. however ... puerto ricos
protected shores to the east are not receiving much of this wave
action and north shores appear to have insufficient exposure to the
wave action to produce more than 8 to 9 foot seas. since no reports
to the contrary have been received have not followed the model
guidance in agreement with previous forecasters.
models forecast diminishing seas ... though only to 7 feet in the
atlantic until wednesday ... and then the next front and strong low
pressure system appears to be generating a new round of high swell
in the 9 to 10 foot range. will carry this forecast in the grids
since the swell train is initially out of the northwest and then
directly out of the north and normal to the northern coastline. seas
in the caribbean ... however ... are shadowed by the virgin islands and
puerto rico and winds over the area will have decreased greatly
later in the week. seas in the caribbean will fall to as little as 3
feet on friday before increasing to 4 to 5 feet over the weekend.
Looks like the wet period will continue in the next few days as the very long discussion from the San Juan NWS office says.
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weatherwindow
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WOW...now that is a forecast discussion of some repute! i am tempted to copy every wso around fla and the gulf coast. it gives the public a real opportunity to understand the logic behind the forecast numbers. i have often wondered why the other offices dont follow the lead of nws/sju. thanks luis..........rich
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cycloneye
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weatherwindow wrote:WOW...now that is a forecast discussion of some repute! i am tempted to copy every wso around fla and the gulf coast. it gives the public a real opportunity to understand the logic behind the forecast numbers. i have often wondered why the other offices dont follow the lead of nws/sju. thanks luis..........rich
The NWS office always has great discussions and when the hurricane season starts I read them more than the NHC ones.
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cyclonaut
welcome back Luis! 
what exactly does that forecast mean for the islands? we have been having a long period of rainy days..heavy squalls that seem to come from nowhere..and very high winds..
today and yesterday it seems as if the winds are dying down and there has not been much rain.
are things beginning to change?? hopefully?
I want to take a day and go out on our boat!
Barbara
what exactly does that forecast mean for the islands? we have been having a long period of rainy days..heavy squalls that seem to come from nowhere..and very high winds..
today and yesterday it seems as if the winds are dying down and there has not been much rain.
are things beginning to change?? hopefully?
I want to take a day and go out on our boat!
Barbara
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cycloneye
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msbee wrote:welcome back Luis!
what exactly does that forecast mean for the islands? we have been having a long period of rainy days..heavy squalls that seem to come from nowhere..and very high winds..
today and yesterday it seems as if the winds are dying down and there has not been much rain.
are things beginning to change?? hopefully?
I want to take a day and go out on our boat!
Barbara
No significant changes on the weather grids as the model are still
suggesting the arrival of the boundary on wednesday. the eta and the
gfs are showing a gradual increase on moisture through midweek when
this boundary is expected to reach our local forecast area. models
also suggest good upper level dynamics for late wednesday night and
thursday. a 90 mph jet streak is expected to move over the region
leaving our local area under the influence of the right rear
quadrant at least through saturday.
The above is an excerpt from this morning discussion.A frontal boundary will be very close to the northern islands by wednesday increasing the rain chances by then.About going to the boat by late in the week seas will increase as the winds pick up again as strong high presure gradient returns.
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cycloneye
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000
fxca62 tjsj 171916
afdsju
puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
315 pm ast mon jan 17 2005
. synopsis ... an upper level trough is now settling into place north
of the area. on thursday the jet will sag south and place puerto
rico and the u. s. virgin islands in the right rear quadrant. a weak
short wave will move through on saturday night ... and by tuesday
another short wave trough will roll around the long wave trough.
at mid levels ... low pressure gradually deepens to the north through
friday night. flow shifts to west southwest early thursday and
remains so until the following thursday.
at lower levels ... the local area finds itself between a growing high
pressure over the mid west of the united states and a receding high
pressure moving toward the northeast atlantic. a weak inverted
trough near the windward islands will stall there until friday when
it moves across puerto rico. the high over the mid west will sag
southeast during the week and form an east west ridge near 23 north
by friday night. at the same time a strong low pressure with a
trailing front will pass well north ... the low being north of 40
north... and this will bring weak gradients to the area again on
saturday. a second low pressure will follow it next tuesday with
similar results.
&&
. discussion ... the 12z sounding showed light and variable winds up
through 10 thousand feet and winds at the surface followed suit the
rest of the day. except for some convection over higher
terrain ... today was even drier that yesterday ... despite the fact
that precipitable water was somewhat higher both here and at
isabela. high pressure at mid levels also contributed to a strong
inversion from 11 to 13 thousand feet. this tended to cap any
activity that tried to start. a few showers began in yauco and
southwest puerto rico ... but quickly dissipated. winds were so light
that very little convergence was likely and most showers developed
in the warm upslope flow of local mountains.
moisture does not change a great deal. the gfs suggests some more
moisture ... but the best relative humidity remains north of the
island. moisture slowly comes in from the northeast and east on
relatively light flow. some shower activity could land on the
northeast coast of puerto rico tuesday night. but it appears that
the best rains will come when the upper level dynamics from the
near - by upper level jet arrive over the band of low level moisture
wednesday night and thursday.
the latest gfs shows the moist band at the 300 deg kelvin isentrope
just passing puerto rico friday night ... but not the u. s. virgin
islands ... before moving back over puerto rico saturday morning. the
moisture retreats northwest on sunday and monday ... but another
impulse brings it back on tuesday of the following week.
the last few days of drying have been fortunate and also suggest
that rain may not be as heavy when the next frontal boundary pushes
into the area. certainly wind forecasts continue to be difficult in
the vicinity of the air mass boundary so have elected not to change
the grids much from an agreeable light wind forecast that we had for
much of the week. this will have to be reviewed tomorrow ... however
as run - to - run model variability is high. winds will be more
northerly tomorrow ... much as today ... due to the high pressure
pressing in from the northwest. once the moisture returns this
week ... it may be hard to get rid of ... and although showers will be
neither particularly heavy nor long lived ... they should end up being
fairly frequent giving good coverages to those on the northeast
coast and slopes of puerto rico and to a lesser extent those in the
virgin islands.
&&
. marine ... seas continue to fall tomorrow and the next day. a local
report showed seas 3 to 4 feet on the north coast with breakers from
6 to 8 feet and occasionally to 10 feet. seas are expected to
increase abruptly overnight wednesday into thursday ... and a high
surf advisory may be necessary then. in the meantime ... the small
craft advisory will remain up only in the northern outer waters of
zone 710.
I always enjoy reading the discussions from the San Juan NWS as they are full of details you dont see in many of the US mainland offices.And this latest discussion says rain in the forecast for later in the week so the wet period starting 2005 will continue here.
fxca62 tjsj 171916
afdsju
puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
315 pm ast mon jan 17 2005
. synopsis ... an upper level trough is now settling into place north
of the area. on thursday the jet will sag south and place puerto
rico and the u. s. virgin islands in the right rear quadrant. a weak
short wave will move through on saturday night ... and by tuesday
another short wave trough will roll around the long wave trough.
at mid levels ... low pressure gradually deepens to the north through
friday night. flow shifts to west southwest early thursday and
remains so until the following thursday.
at lower levels ... the local area finds itself between a growing high
pressure over the mid west of the united states and a receding high
pressure moving toward the northeast atlantic. a weak inverted
trough near the windward islands will stall there until friday when
it moves across puerto rico. the high over the mid west will sag
southeast during the week and form an east west ridge near 23 north
by friday night. at the same time a strong low pressure with a
trailing front will pass well north ... the low being north of 40
north... and this will bring weak gradients to the area again on
saturday. a second low pressure will follow it next tuesday with
similar results.
&&
. discussion ... the 12z sounding showed light and variable winds up
through 10 thousand feet and winds at the surface followed suit the
rest of the day. except for some convection over higher
terrain ... today was even drier that yesterday ... despite the fact
that precipitable water was somewhat higher both here and at
isabela. high pressure at mid levels also contributed to a strong
inversion from 11 to 13 thousand feet. this tended to cap any
activity that tried to start. a few showers began in yauco and
southwest puerto rico ... but quickly dissipated. winds were so light
that very little convergence was likely and most showers developed
in the warm upslope flow of local mountains.
moisture does not change a great deal. the gfs suggests some more
moisture ... but the best relative humidity remains north of the
island. moisture slowly comes in from the northeast and east on
relatively light flow. some shower activity could land on the
northeast coast of puerto rico tuesday night. but it appears that
the best rains will come when the upper level dynamics from the
near - by upper level jet arrive over the band of low level moisture
wednesday night and thursday.
the latest gfs shows the moist band at the 300 deg kelvin isentrope
just passing puerto rico friday night ... but not the u. s. virgin
islands ... before moving back over puerto rico saturday morning. the
moisture retreats northwest on sunday and monday ... but another
impulse brings it back on tuesday of the following week.
the last few days of drying have been fortunate and also suggest
that rain may not be as heavy when the next frontal boundary pushes
into the area. certainly wind forecasts continue to be difficult in
the vicinity of the air mass boundary so have elected not to change
the grids much from an agreeable light wind forecast that we had for
much of the week. this will have to be reviewed tomorrow ... however
as run - to - run model variability is high. winds will be more
northerly tomorrow ... much as today ... due to the high pressure
pressing in from the northwest. once the moisture returns this
week ... it may be hard to get rid of ... and although showers will be
neither particularly heavy nor long lived ... they should end up being
fairly frequent giving good coverages to those on the northeast
coast and slopes of puerto rico and to a lesser extent those in the
virgin islands.
&&
. marine ... seas continue to fall tomorrow and the next day. a local
report showed seas 3 to 4 feet on the north coast with breakers from
6 to 8 feet and occasionally to 10 feet. seas are expected to
increase abruptly overnight wednesday into thursday ... and a high
surf advisory may be necessary then. in the meantime ... the small
craft advisory will remain up only in the northern outer waters of
zone 710.
I always enjoy reading the discussions from the San Juan NWS as they are full of details you dont see in many of the US mainland offices.And this latest discussion says rain in the forecast for later in the week so the wet period starting 2005 will continue here.
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cycloneye
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msbee wrote:I agree
those discussions are fantastic. full of good information and very detailed.
very helpful to those of us in the area.
Yes very helpful discussions not only for the Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands but for all the NE caribbean islands.By the way Barbara the friends that want to go in the boat have 2 more days of not high seas before they begin to rise as the winds will pick up behind the frontal boundary..
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cycloneye
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fxca62 tjsj 181021
afdsju
puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
545 am ast tue jan 18 2005
. discussion ... a low level trough extended from near barbados north
northwest across the leeward islands to near 21. 0 degrees north and
65. 5 degrees west early this morning and was drifting west. the cold
front that was moving steadily through the southeast bahamas and the
windward passage during the past 24 hours has slowed considerably...
and was moving slowly southeast into northern haiti early this
morning. these two features are forecast to gradually merge across
the northeast caribbean region and local waters late wednesday or
wednesday night through thursday ... and then sink southeast across
the central lesser antilles by friday. as the merger takes place and
the whole system slides southeast ... expect a good deal of
cloudiness ... showers and a few thunderstorms across the local
islands. the shower and thunderstorm activity will be enhanced by
falling 500 mb heights ... as a series of short waves swing across or
just north of fa. in addition ... upper level conditions look quite
favorable ... with local area under 250 mb speed divergence and
favorable right rear quadrant of jet segment.
then ... after a "somewhat" drier day friday ... it appears that
remnants of this merger may sneak back to the northwest across fa
during the saturday through sunday time frame ... resulting in
additional cloudiness ... showers and possibly some thunderstorms.
thus ... an increasingly unsettled spell of weather appears on tap and
has us wondering if the "dry" season will ever get here.
&&
. marine ... as mentioned by previous forecaster ... large ... long period
east northeast swells will gradually subside today and tonight and
then be overtaken by building northwest and then north northwest
swells wednesday and wednesday night and these should linger through
at least thursday and probably friday as well. followed inherited
marine grids and cwf closely ... as they looked very good. we continue
with a small craft advisory for the atlantic off shore waters and
the anegada passage and a precautionary statement remains for the
atlantic near shore waters and most of the remaining waters of the
eastern caribbean.
Here comes the rain once again to the NE caribbean after 3 days of dry weather.
afdsju
puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
545 am ast tue jan 18 2005
. discussion ... a low level trough extended from near barbados north
northwest across the leeward islands to near 21. 0 degrees north and
65. 5 degrees west early this morning and was drifting west. the cold
front that was moving steadily through the southeast bahamas and the
windward passage during the past 24 hours has slowed considerably...
and was moving slowly southeast into northern haiti early this
morning. these two features are forecast to gradually merge across
the northeast caribbean region and local waters late wednesday or
wednesday night through thursday ... and then sink southeast across
the central lesser antilles by friday. as the merger takes place and
the whole system slides southeast ... expect a good deal of
cloudiness ... showers and a few thunderstorms across the local
islands. the shower and thunderstorm activity will be enhanced by
falling 500 mb heights ... as a series of short waves swing across or
just north of fa. in addition ... upper level conditions look quite
favorable ... with local area under 250 mb speed divergence and
favorable right rear quadrant of jet segment.
then ... after a "somewhat" drier day friday ... it appears that
remnants of this merger may sneak back to the northwest across fa
during the saturday through sunday time frame ... resulting in
additional cloudiness ... showers and possibly some thunderstorms.
thus ... an increasingly unsettled spell of weather appears on tap and
has us wondering if the "dry" season will ever get here.
&&
. marine ... as mentioned by previous forecaster ... large ... long period
east northeast swells will gradually subside today and tonight and
then be overtaken by building northwest and then north northwest
swells wednesday and wednesday night and these should linger through
at least thursday and probably friday as well. followed inherited
marine grids and cwf closely ... as they looked very good. we continue
with a small craft advisory for the atlantic off shore waters and
the anegada passage and a precautionary statement remains for the
atlantic near shore waters and most of the remaining waters of the
eastern caribbean.
Here comes the rain once again to the NE caribbean after 3 days of dry weather.
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