Tropical Cyclone 10S

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for North West Australia
IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:01pm WST on Friday the 14th of January 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

Tropical Low off north Kimberley coast
Location at noon :near 13.3S 123.0E
about 525 kilometres [280 nautical miles] north of Broome
Central Pressure : 1002hPa
Recent movement : west at 10 kilometres per hour [6 knots]

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday : Moderate
Sunday : High
Monday : High

REMARKS - The low is expected to continue moving westwards in the next few days
and not affect the WA coastline. It is still possible that the low will develop
further in the next few days.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

No other tropical cyclones are expected to develop within the next three days.

Full details available from Bureau of Meteorology
on 1300 659 210 or visit http://www.bom.gov.au.

[mobilebay]

I know a pretty good bit about Darwin because of the famous Christmas Day Hurricane (Tracy): but is this a fairly active Basin? I just have not read alot about this Basin.

[HURAKAN]

I know a pretty good bit about Darwin because of the famous Christmas Day Hurricane (Tracy): but is this a fairly active Basin? I just have not read alot about this Basin.

The area north of the Australian Northern Territory is monitored by Darwin, and fortunately for the city since Tracy it has be spared of a great hit. Usually no more than 2 or 3 cyclones develop in the area and some of them cross to the areas monitored by Perth or Brisbane. But because of the warm waters in the Timor Sea, if a tropical cyclones encounters good upper level conditions and an slow movement it could grow into a fierce storm like Tracy was or like Thelma a few years ago.

[HURAKAN]

Looks very good in this image and fortunately for everyone, it will be moving away from Australia as it develops probably into TS 10S.

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 15.7S3 113.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 113.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 16.0S7 110.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 16.5S2 107.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 17.1S9 104.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 17.5S3 101.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 112.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURR-
ENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN-
TENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z3 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND
170900Z7./

[P.K.]

Lasted as long as TD 10 last season.