Galveston's year to get slammed....

[Johnny]

Not really but this is what I local said to me when I was down there a couple days after the Christmas snow. I was eating at Nates Steakhouse on the seawall and got to talking with an old man who has lived in Galveston for the past 55 years. Basically what he said is that every winter when it gets cold like this (for Galveston island) we get a major hurricane hit Galveston during hurricane season. Is this guy pulling my leg or is their a pattern to this? Thanks.

[vbhoutex]

Well 1989 was a cold one. No major hit in 1990.

1973 was a mojor cold blast. No major hit in 1974.

I see a pattern.

[MWatkins]

I looked up the 5 years from the Galveston NWS that had record cold lowest temps in the month of January, then compared hurricane landfalling tracks later that year to determine if there was a link.

Years (Min Low Reached in Month of Jan)

1911 (not available at NHC)
1928...No Gavleston Hurricane
1879...Yes
1884...No
1886...Yes
1962...No

I then looked at the 5 years with the lowest Maximum (high) temp in Galveston:

1928...No
1979...Yes (TS),
1911...Not Available
1947...Yes
1964...No
1971...Very Close Call

So in both data sets, of the 5 coldest min and max temps for Jan (of all years), 2 of 5 cases experienced a very close approach and/or landfalling hurricane near the Galveston/Southeastern Texas area.

To make this a true correlation I would have to run some univariate analysis and weight the samples out to determine if there is a close connection...but the old-timer may be on to something.

I'll try to run some of that analysis tonight or tomorrow...although I am not entirely sure that using Jan temp extremes is the best predictor...but it sure smells like one.

MW

[cajungal]

I own the book Isaac's Storm. It is all about the devestating cane of 1900. You should read it sometime. It is fascinating, even though every time I read it, I am brought to tears. After Galveston got slammed that labor day, snow WAS falling on the beaches that winter.

[mobilebay]

I have a bad feeling about the Texas Coast. Other than Bret that hit a sparsly populated area of Texas: I would say they have been pretty lucky. I just have a feeling that the luck (like Florida's) is going to run out. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Alicia the last major to hit the Texas Coast other than Bret?

[AussieMark]

I have a bad feeling about the Texas Coast. Other than Bret that hit a sparsly populated area of Texas: I would say they have been pretty lucky. I just have a feeling that the luck (like Florida's) is going to run out. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Alicia the last major to hit the Texas Coast other than Bret?

Bingo

Alicia hit in August 1983.

thats 21 years ago.

22 years ago this August.

That was the last Major to strike the Upper Texas Coast.

[HurricaneBill]

Some places will get hit repeatedly and then get a quiet period for years and then get smacked again.

For Example, take North Carolina:

1953 Hurricane Barbara (Category 2)

1954 Hurricane Carol (Category 2)

1954 Hurricane Hazel (Category 4)

1955 Hurricane Connie (Category 3)

1955 Hurricane Diane (Category 2 Outer Banks/ Category 1 elsewhere)

1955 Hurricane Ione (Category 3)

1958 Hurricane Helene (offshore Category 4/ Brought hurricane conditions to Outer Banks)

1960 Hurricane Donna (Category 2)

Then it got pretty quiet for more than two decades.

1971 Hurricane Ginger (Category 1) Ginger would be NC's only hurricane landfall during the 1970s.

Then it started to get busy again.

1984 Hurricane Diana (Category 2)

1985 Hurricane Gloria (Category 2)

1986 Hurricane Charley (Category 1)

1991 Hurricane Bob (offshore Category 2)

1993 Hurricane Emily (Category 3)

1996 Hurricane Bertha (Category 2)

1996 Hurricane Fran (Category 3)

1998 Hurricane Bonnie (Category 2)

1999 Hurricane Dennis (offshore Category 2)

1999 Hurricane Floyd (Category 2)

1999 Hurricane Irene (offshore Category 2)

2003 Hurricane Isabel (Category 2)

2004 Hurricane Alex (offshore Category 2 brought hurricane conditions to Outer Banks)

2004 Hurricane Charley (Category 1)

[Johnny]

MWatkins, thanks for the research. Very interesting.

[GalvestonDuck]

It's only January....

[The Big Dog]

Then it got pretty quiet for more than two decades.

1971 Hurricane Ginger (Category 1) Ginger would be NC's only hurricane landfall during the 1970s.

And this one didn't exactly take the usual path of Carolina storms.

[cyclonaut]

Its really an impossible call to make in January whats going to happen months from now.

When the hurricanes are there & the proper steering currents are in place to move them toward you or me then we will know.