What states has the highest chance of seeing a cane in 2005?

[cajungal]

I know it only January you guys, and know you don't even want to hear the word hurricane. But, I am a little bored right now, so bear with me. Just want to hear opinions. Even if it is a bit early. Like 5 months away. As we all know, Florida got hit by 4 in 2004. And Texas had their turn the year before that. And us here in Louisiana had our round with Isidore and Lili in 2002. I think the area from Morgan City down to Grand Isle may be targeted this this year. And I am not saying that because I live in this area. Because I don't wish that on anybody. I don't want anyone to suffer any damages. While we may have been brushed by a couple of Tropical Storms, the New Orleans area has not seen anything major since Betsy 1965. Just vote please.

[Hurricanehink]

I think we may have another Betsy coming. Aside from the obvious Florida, I think LA may have their worst case scenario. Of course, I hope I'm wrong.

[Scorpion]

I would say either Florida Panhandle or Florida East Coast.

[Brent]

FLORIDA! FLORIDA! FLORIDA!

[cajungal]

Everyone is going to say Florida. True, they are the most vunerable because of how they are located with water on 3 sides. But, I hope that Florida catches a break after being affected 4 times in 2004. But, Miami and Homestead have not been directly affected since Andrew.

[hurricanetrack]

I think the Outer Banks of NC will be hit again- making it 4 years in a row with a strike. Also- look for the NC mtns to be impacted by tropical cyclones coming out of the Gulf. This happened a lot during 2004 and the results were deadly.

Of course, if this Bermuda High stays put most of the year then Florida will have a good chance of being affected by more hurricanes. We shall see- that's what makes this so interesting- you never know....

[SouthernWx]

Everyone is going to say Florida. True, they are the most vunerable because of how they are located with water on 3 sides. But, I hope that Florida catches a break after being affected 4 times in 2004. But, Miami and Homestead have not been directly affected since Andrew.

No, I voted Florida east coast because the southeast coast and Keys are climatologically the most likely area in America to experience a landfalling hurricane.

Last year wasn't as much of an anomaly as some seem to believe. Over the decades from 1900 to 1965, Florida was slammed again and again. After an unprecedated lull the past 35+ years, 2004 IMO marked the return of NORMAL hurricane landfall patterns across the tropical Atlantic basin....meaning Floridians, particularly those living along the southeast & SW coasts and in the Keys should expect numerous landfalling hurricanes during the next 20-30 yrs, some of them very intense (125 mph or more).

I agree that southeast Louisiana is also an area prime for a major hit....especially Greater New Orleans. As history has shown us, sometimes a powerful Cape Verde hurricane impacts southern Florida....the final landfall point occurs along the Louisiana coast (i.e.- Andrew, Betsy, Sept 1947).

Florida has now seen a return of intense hurricanes....and it's only a matter of time until the same thing occurs again in the New Orleans area.

PW

[Rainband]

no way of knowing. The west coast save sw florida was lucky last year. Hope that continues

[Andrew92]

I too think that the east coast of Florida will, unfortunately, be the hot spot for hurricane strikes in 2005. However, I think the Outer Banks and the central Gulf Coast will get something too.

But it's waaaaay early yet.

-Andrew92

[cajungal]

I agree wayyyyyyy too early. But, it is fun guessing. Yeah, I agree Florida will see more and more hits. Louisiana was very lucky this year. And we have been very blessed over the years. If it was not for a strong early cold front, we could of been Charley's target. Hurricanes that hit around Miami down to the Keys, Louisiana is a lot of times the next target. Examples: Betsy and Andrew. The Houma area has not been targeted by hurricane force winds since Andrew in 1992. We been getting a lot of close calls. So, we have being doing a lot of batten down the hatches. It is good that we have the drills for when the real thing comes our way. Lessons learned.

[cajungal]

I have a feeling we may see another active year for Florida as well. For all you Floridans, I hope I am wrong. I LOVE Florida! I see maybe a landfall similar to Andrew from Miami down to the keys. Then, second landfall somewhere in Southeast Louisiana. Just a feeling. I had a dream all the way in like September or October. It was Christmas day and it was snowing. And on Christmas day, it snowed! I am not saying I am Sylvia Brown; yet. LOL

[Derek Ortt]

the place that has been hit the most during the past active cycle

North Carolina.

Lets remember, while only Alex counts as an NC hit, Charley's worst affects on the East Coast were in NC

[wlfpack81]

Suprised nobody had VA (mainly SE VA) on that list. Of course given the location of SE VA it's extremely hard to get a direct hit from a tropical system. Last direct hit was in 1933 from a Cat 2 storm and that caused considerable flooding in Norfolk along the Elizabeth River. Being I'm from Hpt Roads (Hampton, VA) I'm worried about that region as it's a disaster waiting to happen. I mean Isabel caused enough damage as it was so just imagine if a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 hit that area directly

Not to mention the people there are very complacent since most generations haven't really had to deal with a severe tropical wx event (Isabel was bad but nowhere near the worst case scenario for this region).

[cajungal]

Just like New Orleans. New Orleans has not had a direct strike since Betsy in 1965. The majority of the storms vere off to the east before striking the area. Like Camille, George and Ivan. All panicked the city, but vered far enough to the east to spare the city. I don't think luck will last forever though.

[Derek Ortt]

even Betsy moved to the west so that the RMW didnt hit the city. Plus, it made landfall about 60 miles south of the city; thus, even if it would have reached the city, it likely would have been 1-2 categories weaker than experienced at Grand Isle.


Now, what would wipe out LA would be an Elena or Erin than moves due west not WNW and actually makes landfall in the city. The northerly winds ahead of the storm would push the lake over its banks and into the city, then the major cane winds do the rest

[cajungal]

Grand Isle experience gusts up to 160 from Betsy. The eye actually came ashore there. New Orleans is not on the coast. By the time the eye arrived over New Orleans, they got only 105 miles per hour gusts. It was the water that destroyed the city then, not the wind. I was not even close to being born for Betsy. But, my mom and dad were teenagers in high school when they went through it. My mom lived in Thibodaux and got winds up to 125. My dad was closer to the coast down in Cut Off and they got winds up to 150.

I live 60 miles southwest of New Orleans. During Andrew, we were only 30 miles east of the eye. New Orleans hardly got anything. While we were experiencing winds in the 100 mph range here.

[tronbunny]

<snip>

Last year wasn't as much of an anomaly as some seem to believe. Over the decades from 1900 to 1965, Florida was slammed again and again. After an unprecedated lull the past 35+ years, 2004 IMO marked the return of NORMAL hurricane landfall patterns across the tropical Atlantic basin....meaning Floridians, particularly those living along the southeast & SW coasts and in the Keys should expect numerous landfalling hurricanes during the next 20-30 yrs, some of them very intense (125 mph or more).

PW

I'm with Perry, here.
Facts are facts.
We just need to be prepared, as we've been very fortunate the past 2 decades.

[Anonymous]

I chose East Florida although Dr Gray said in his Dec outlook that Fla wont get hit this year so we shall see.

[cajungal]

Why did Gray say that Florida won't get hit this year? What area he thinks will be hit then? I still think Florida could get hit again. It all depends on the way the Bermuda high is this year. And if anything forms directly in the gulf this year or Bay of Campeche, the panhandle is a likely target.

[HurricaneBill]

Every year, New England is overlooked.

Yes, hurricanes don't strike New England as often as Florida, but it has been more than 13 years since Hurricane Bob.

Let's see........

1954: Hurricane Carol
1954: Hurricane Edna
1960: Hurricane Donna
1961: Hurricane Esther (remained offshore but brought Category 1 conditions to coastal Rhode Island)
1969: Hurricane Gerda
1976: Hurricane Belle
1985: Hurricane Gloria
1991: Hurricane Bob

About a month ago, I had a weird dream. Derek complained to the NHC that Gloria had been a TS at landfall and should not have been retired. So the NHC unretired Gloria and put it on the 2005 list. Yet Gert also remained on the list. "Emily Franklin Gloria Gert Harvey......"

Well, sure enough, Gloria formed and guess what path she took?
The exact same path she took in 1985. Only this time, she remained a strong hurricane into New England.