AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 99.7E5, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 061131Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH CONVERGENT BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 061410Z2 SSMI PASS INDICATES POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES SPIRALING IN TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A REGION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FEATURE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, BOUNDED BY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR FROM EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND POSSESSES GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINI-MUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
06/1425 UTC 10.4S 99.0E T1.0/1.0 91S -- South Indian Ocean
WILL IT BECOME SALLY? TIME WILL TELL.
