December 2004 QBO: +2.27

[donsutherland1]

The QBO continued to fall, though at a slower rate than in November. The December figure came to +2.27.

At this point in time, the QBO's behavior over the past 6 months has most closely resembled those of 1969-70, 1973-74, 1978-79, and 2002-03. The 2002-03 figure is the best match by far.

Average Monthly Difference:

2002-03: 1.09
1978-79: 1.78
1973-74: 1.81
1969-70: 1.99

What this likely means is that the QBO will likely remain above -5.00 through at least February and probably March, as well. The December 2004-March 2005 average should easily finish below +6.00 and above -6.00.

The following is the QBO if it follows the paths taken in the four aforementioned years:

Code: Select all

Year   Dec     Jan     Feb     Mar     Avg.
2002   2.27    1.38    1.33   -0.53    1.11
1978   2.27    2.59    4.85    1.62    2.83
1973   2.27   -0.95   -1.35   -1.12   -0.29
1969   2.27   -2.43   -4.14   -7.36   -2.92
               
Mean   2.27    0.15    0.17   -1.85    0.19


With a weak El Niño persisting and the QBO likely to remain mostly above -5.00 (one can refer to some of DT's earlier work on this), it would be premature to write off Winter 2004-05 in the East in spite of the lack of snowfall through much of the Mid-Atlantic region.

Given past analogs with regard to ENSO and QBO, February still holds much promise to be cold and stormy.

[Wnghs2007]

Don what are your thoughts on todays 8-10 day average of the Euro possibly showing Dual Blocking Setting up. RaleighWX on another site hinted at this but I wondered what you thought.

[donsutherland1]

Wnghs2007,

The trend in the Ensembles has been growing increasingly favorable.

As noted this morning:

In the larger overall pattern, there are some hints of change down the road:

• The ensembles have grown more supportive of the Arctic Oscillation trending neutral and possibly negative toward mid-month.
• Ensemble support for a negative NAO is higher than it has been just a few days ago.
• The evolution of events in the Pacific remains consistent with downstream changes in the Atlantic

Today's ensembles are even more bullish. The same holds with regard to their pointing to a positive positive PNA just before mid-month.

Finally, a look at ENSO profiles suggests that odds generally favor a pattern change after mid-month.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Wnghs2007,

The trend in the Ensembles has been growing increasingly favorable.

As noted this morning:

In the larger overall pattern, there are some hints of change down the road:

• The ensembles have grown more supportive of the Arctic Oscillation trending neutral and possibly negative toward mid-month.
• Ensemble support for a negative NAO is higher than it has been just a few days ago.
• The evolution of events in the Pacific remains consistent with downstream changes in the Atlantic

Today's ensembles are even more bullish. The same holds with regard to their pointing to a positive positive PNA just before mid-month.

Finally, a look at ENSO profiles suggests that odds generally favor a pattern change after mid-month.

-AO and -NAO is just what we need......

[Scorpion]

What exactly is the QBO?

[donsutherland1]

Scorpion,

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the variation in the east-west stratospheric winds above the Equator. When the QBO is negative, the QBO is East. When positive, it is West.

The QBO can aid in seasonal forecasting as it relates both to tropical seasons and winters. There are many other variables, but it does add value.

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

This isn't a done deal just yet but the trend is very encouraging. The fact that upstream changes that have taken place over the Pacific suggest that such changes could occur downstream is also quite encouraging. Let's see what happens.

[Wnghs2007]

Wnghs2007,

The trend in the Ensembles has been growing increasingly favorable.

As noted this morning:

In the larger overall pattern, there are some hints of change down the road:

• The ensembles have grown more supportive of the Arctic Oscillation trending neutral and possibly negative toward mid-month.
• Ensemble support for a negative NAO is higher than it has been just a few days ago.
• The evolution of events in the Pacific remains consistent with downstream changes in the Atlantic

Today's ensembles are even more bullish. The same holds with regard to their pointing to a positive positive PNA just before mid-month.

Finally, a look at ENSO profiles suggests that odds generally favor a pattern change after mid-month.

Thanks Don. Lets keep monitoring the trends and hopefully it will come to pass.

[yoda]

Most excellent!! I will be waiting.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Chris,

This isn't a done deal just yet but the trend is very encouraging. The fact that upstream changes that have taken place over the Pacific suggest that such changes could occur downstream is also quite encouraging. Let's see what happens.

Indeed, Don, I hope we get the +PNA.... HM is saying the -NAO will happen, while DT is saying it could be +NAO all winter, and wxguy25 from his January outlook says for a -NAO after Jan 20th.....