10 Mostly Tropical Things I Think

[MWatkins]

First of all...sorry about going into hiding. This seems to always happen this time of year (many I'm sure remember this happening the same time last year...maybe...not sure that anyone is actually keeping track). Part of it...I honestly believe...is a sort of depression brough on by the short days.

The main part though has been a busy work schedule and the holidays...traveled a lot over the last 2 weeks.

Anyway...I'm back and here's some stuff I've been mulling over lately.

1. The luck of the US...specifically...has run out in terms of landfalling hurricanes. This may be a no brainer based on 04 alone...but it is my belief that this type of pattern is ready to run for a few years...whether this paticular season remain the same or not is yet to be seen...but look at the 40's and 50's. Fl...and the entire Gulf coast...may be in for a long decade. As a result...this forum will continue to grow and flourish.

2. A lot will be learned from this season. Hurricanes have been sampled...studied and modeled in 04 like never before...Ivan in paticular. So...from a science standpoint I would expect that much will be applied to the 2005 season...like the the step frequency radiometer...will help us understand intensity better...which will make fore better forecasts.

Side note: Check this out:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2336.htm

2A. Costal residents are now better prepared for 05 better than at any other time since Neil Frank was at the NHC.

3. Speaking of that...Max Maxfield has the temperment, disposition, patience and dedication to be the best hurricane ambassador to the general public since John Hope, and the the best official voice since Dr Frank retired. I gained a great deal of respect for Max this season and I think the work the NHC did as a whole was exceptional.

4. Does anyone else remember the Tsunami warning that came out a few years ago for the west coast of the US after the south American quake? We picked it up on the noaa servers while waiting for advisories one night. I was scared to death then...thankfully nothing happened.

5. How great was it to discuss this season with some of the most well-known and respected people in the entire weather community. Dr Landsea, the afore mentioned Max, Dr Lyons, Joe B, Tony Cristaldi, Marh Sudduth, DT (yes DT...he KNOWS his STUFF), and AirForceMet, ALhurricane, Windspeed and everyone else who contributed and lended to the discussion (and I'm sure I missed plenty)...thanks.

6. I have made a TON of new friends this season...thanks for the great messages and feedback...and for reading/listening and for helping me with things.

7. I really miss writing hurricane forecasts. With the season being so busy here and with the radio thing I didn't write many at all. I will get back to that this season. Please...someone...hold me to those words.

8. Despite the GFS's insistance during Frances...well-developed hurricanes CANNOT move poleward directly into 594MB and 588MB ridges.

9. Think about the last 10 years. OKC gets a category 5 monster tornado, the upper mid-west (Dakotas...minnesota...Missisippi river) gets a once in 100 year floods, Florida gets 4 hurricanes in a season, and now the Tsunami. What did the 70's have? A blizzard? The 80's had Hugo and Gilbert...but man...the last 10 years have been brutal.

10. I need some honest feedback about the radio stuff...please send me a PM with any feedback...please don't pull punches...

Ok...that's all I have for now...good to be back.

MW

[mobilebay]

Mike you can also add Ivan to #8 on the GFS. It was very consistant on making Ivan a Noreaster. Great post mike.

[NorthGaWeather]

What did the 70's have? A blizzard?

MW

Also the largest tornado outbreak ever recorded. The Great Southern Outbreak of 1884 is the only other one that comes close.

[James]

How many tornadoes were there?

[HalloweenGale]

I think the '74 outbreak had 250 Tornadoes

[Rainband]

Welcome Back Mike. Nice weather for winter huh

[NorthGaWeather]

How many tornadoes were there?

148 in the super outbreak. 6 of them were F5.

[Rainband]

30 where F4 too

[James]

Wow. To think that all that happened within 48 hours.

[Rainband]

Wow. To think that all that happened within 48 hours.

I know. I am wonerding what this year will bring after what Mike said. I hope Florida isn't hammered again. We can't take much more. My area was real Lucky but others