2004 Storm of the Year

[HurricaneBill]

I know a lot will disagree with my pick, but I think the 2004 Storm of the Year is Cyclone Gafilo.

Gafilo was very devastating to Madagascar, wiping out much of the vanilla crops. Keep in mind, Madagascar is one of the poorest countries on Earth.

The last death toll I heard was 295 dead, 181 missing. Assuming the missing are presumed dead, this would make the death toll 476. This would make Gafilo one of the deadliest cyclones to hit Madagascar in recent memory.

Gafilo also did something no other TC did this year. Gafilo made landfall as a Category 5 cyclone. This means Gafilo was more intense than 1994's Cyclone Geralda, which slammed into Madagascar as a strong Category 4. Geralda had been called Madagascar's "Storm of the Century". (Note: Geralda had reached Category 5 status while over the Indian Ocean)

[James]

I remember watching Gafilo on NRL because it made landfall on my birthday. That's the main reason why I remember it.

I found that Super Typhoon Tokage was an interesting storm to track. Nominating any storm is difficult because of the effects it will have had, but I found Tokage interesting because of it's sheer size. It looked very impressive on satellite.

[Lindaloo]

IMO I think Charley was. He was nothing like the poor people of Florida expected or predicted.

[HURAKAN]

I also remember Cyclone Gafilo. I told my friend from Univision 23 Paola Elorza about the cyclone and I believe she even showed an image of the cyclone to the public. What surprises me is that I didn't realize the cyclone was so important, historically speaking, to the "Island of the Giant Cockroaches."

Even though Gafilo is important, I think the title of "Storm of the Year" could be very debatable. A lot of storms could also be named "Storm of the Year," for example, Typhoon Tokage in Japan, Hurricane/Cyclone "Catarina" in Brazil (Will be my favorite for the title,) Hurricane Jeanne for its deaths in Haiti; and many others.

[James]

Hmm, I agree that putting one storm down is difficult. So, here are my top 5. When I say 'top', I don't mean the best, I mean the most noteworthy storms of the year. Here they are, in no particular order.

1) Super Typhoon Tokage - For sheer size.
2) Hurricane Ivan for it's effects and longevity.
3) Hurricane Jeanne - Its terrible effect on Haiti.
4) Cyclone Gafilo - For it's effect on Madagascar.
5) Super Typhoon Chaba - It held CAT 5 status for 3 days.

[Hurricanehink]

For me, it's either Hurricane Catarina or Hurricane Ivan. Both recieved the most media attention, IMO, and both caused a great interest in the weather community. While there are certainly others that have these qualifications, these are my two.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Well, I don't really follow anything besides the Atlantic and E-Pac. So if I did name a Storm of the Year, it would be from the Atlantic, but this year I can't pick just one. At least half of the storms were important in some way.

[kevin]

My storm of the year was Earl. People were forecasting it to become a major hurricane, and I said 'it is dead' and called it correctly. Something I rarely do.

[mobilebay]

I vote for Charley. That hurricane was Brutal. This is one of the few times I will say the NHC did a very poor job. I'm speaking of when the Cyclone was rapidly deepening off the Florida Coast. Everyone on this board could see it. Anyone with any TC knowledge could tell. Even with Recon strongy suggesting rapid deepening the NHC waited till the next advisory. (by then it was too late). I just think a special Advisory package should have been issued. Don't shoot me it's just my opinion.

[senorpepr]

I'll vote for a cyclone that hasn't been mentioned yet... Heta.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HETA
(TD-03F / TC-07P)
28 December - 11 January
--------------------------------------------

A. Storm Origins
----------------

Heta was the first tropical cyclone to form in RSMC Nadi's area of
responsibility during the 2003/2004 South Pacific tropical cyclone
season. Continuing the trend of powerful Southeast Pacific storms
established during the 2002/2003 season, Heta achieved very intense
Category 5 tropical cyclone status with maximum (10-minute average)
winds estimated at about 115 knots and momentary gusts of up to 160
knots at its peak intensity.

The system which eventually developed into Heta originated in the
area midway between Rotuma and Fiji on 25 December 2003 and was
identified as Tropical Disturbance 03F. It moved slowly eastward in
the area just north of Fiji, gradually developing into a tropical
depression on 28 December. The depression continued to move north-
eastward to just west of Atufu, the northernmost of the Tokelau
Islands, by 2 January 2004. It was named Tropical Cyclone Heta at
0300 UTC on 2 January when located approximately 400 nautical miles
east of Funafuti Atoll.

B. Storm History
----------------

Once named, Heta intensified rapidly while moving into an area with
weak shear (5-10 kts), excellent divergence aloft and SSTs of 29 C.
Under a weak steering regime, Heta turned slowly southward. The
cyclone reached storm intensity around 02/1200 UTC and hurricane
intensity around 0600 UTC on 3 January. Peak intensity was attained
at approximately 05/0000 UTC when the centre was passing about
70 nautical miles to the west of Savai'i, Samoa, or about 135 nautical
miles west of Apia, Samoa. At the time, maximum (10-minute) average
winds were approximately 115 knots close to the centre with peak gusts
estimated at 160 knots.

This intensity was maintained over the next 24 hours as Heta turned
to a southeastward track, accelerating to approximately 20 knots.
This track took the cyclone centre to within about 50 nautical miles
northeast of Niuatoputu in the northern Tonga Group around 05/1200
UTC, and very close to the west of Niue around 0300 UTC on 6 January.
At 0300 UTC Heta was centred approximately 35 nm west-northwest of
Alofi, Niue. Heta moved out of RSMC Nadi's area of responsibility soon
after 07/0000 UTC, maintaining its southeastward movement at about
20 knots while gradually weakening. RSMC Wellington took over the
responsibility for warnings as Heta weakened under increasing vertical
wind shear. Heta had become extratropical by 2300 UTC on 7 January
when located about 525 nautical miles south of Rarotonga. The strong
extratropical storm became quasi-stationary in that area and ultimately
began to drift slowly westward. The final reference to the system in
Wellington's marine warnings was at 2300 UTC on the 11th. At that time
the former intense cyclone was a weakening 35-kt gale located
approximately 1250 nautical miles east of Norfolk Island.

(Editor's Note: The peak MSW (1-min avg) reported by JTWC for Tropical
Cyclone Heta was 140 kts, based on a Dvorak rating of T7.0. The minimum
estimated CP as reported by Nadi was 915 hPa.)

C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------

Before meteorological instruments at the Niue Meteorological Station
failed, the minimum atmospheric pressure recorded was 945 hPa at
06/0411 UTC. (Editor's Note: There was also an e-mail from Jeff
Callaghan which mentioned a pressure of 933.5 hPa at 1705 local time
on 5 January.) Further data from Niue may be found at:

<http://www.niue.nu/wx/weekrep.htm)>

This site shows that several records were broken during the passage
of Heta. Included are:

Record high wind gust: 286.8 km/hr (155 knots) from 061 deg at
14:37 (local time) on 05 January 2004

Record high average speed: 181.3 km/hr (98 knots) from 078 deg at
14:45 (local time) on 05 January 2004

Record daily rain: 999.2 mm on 05 January 2004

(Please note: It is neither clear how long meteorological data has
been recorded at this site nor how well the instruments have been
calibrated for extreme conditions)

D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------

Heta caused destructive storm force winds and associated sea flooding
over northern and western parts of Samoa with one death reported. Also
destructive storm force winds occurred over Niuatoputapu in Tonga.
However, it was Niue which was to bear the brunt of the very destructive
hurricane force winds and associated extremely very high sea waves.
These caused extensive and severe damage that was reported to be the
worst seen in Niue in living memory. Amazingly, only one death on the
island was directly attributed to the cyclone.

Images of Heta from Niue are available at Geoff Mackley's web site
at:

<http://www.rambocam.com/heta.html>

At the time of this report, no information on damage was available
from Tokelau, Wallis or Futuna. In Samoa, there was extensive damage
to houses, power lines and crops due to heavy swells and sea flooding.
One person was swept out to sea and was presumed dead. Airline
schedules were also disrupted.

In Niue, it appeared that at least as much damage was caused by the
extremely high sea waves as by the wind. Crops and island vegetation
were wiped out in the salt-laden winds.

Media reports describe how the capital, Alofi, bore the brunt of the
cyclone with half of the commercial area wiped out. Houses built atop
30-metre cliffs and others thought to be safe up to 100 metres inland
were destroyed. According to these reports, worst hit was the
southern area of Aliluki where monstrous waves, rather than the wind,
appear to have been the main cause of the devastation. A woman was
killed when a large wave smashed into the house where she and her
19-month-old son were sheltering. The boy received serious injuries,
and despite evacuation to an Auckland Hospital (New Zealand), died some
days later from skull injuries and lacerations.

Communication to and from Niue was completely severed and the only
contact available was by satellite phone several days after the passage
of the cyclone. Much of the infrastructure on the island was destroyed.
Buildings and houses were either demolished or severely damaged,
subsequently releasing poisonous asbestos. An estimate of the total
damage to Niue is 50 million New Zealand dollars (NZ $50 million). In
the aftermath of the storm, some island leaders are calling for a return
to New Zealand governance, and expect the population to fall from about
1200 native Niueans to an unsustainable 500 people. Such a drop would
likely render the nation unviable.

Niueans had been adamant they wanted to retain the status quo, i.e.,
financial and administrative support from New Zealand while retaining
their own sovereignty. But, as the smallest independent state in the
world, its constitutional status remained "under review". Niue has
been self-governing in free association with New Zealand since 1974,
and New Zealand has an ongoing responsibility to provide necessary
economic and administrative assistance.

Further information relating to the destruction wrought by Heta can
be found at the following URLs:

<http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vID/9E57898DCFE96A8AC1256E20003D3C
DD?OpenDocument>

and,

<http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vID/8445C982218B9A8C49256E16001F8E
AE?OpenDocument>

A further interesting (though not rigorously vetted) account of Heta
can be found at

<http://www.seafriends.org.nz/indepth/nd010.htm>

(Report written by Simon Clarke, with additional information supplied
by Alipate Waqaicelua and Jeff Callaghan)

[CharleySurvivor]

I have to say Charley also. One must live it to know what it was like and what it as done.