Tropical Cyclone Raymond Impacting Australia

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak classification: 3.5





According to the latest information the system NW of Australia now sustain winds around 50 mph; that's what NRL says. Dvorak believes TC 07s is a little bit stronger. Even though TC 07S hasn't been named yet, because of the increase in organization and thus in intensity, it will probably be baptized in the next advisory. At this time the state of Western Australia looks to be in the path of the storm, fortunately, the area is sparsely populated and the environment is desert-like; a little of water should be welcomed.

[James]

If it does develop, what name would it be assigned?

[P.K.]

It is in a similar place to where TC Monty was so I'm guessing they will use the western Australia name list and it will be called Nicky.

[HURAKAN]

Name: Raymond
Severity Category: 1
Situation At: 9PM WST Sunday 2 January 2005
Warning Area: Kuri Bay to Wyndham
Location: 14.2S 125.5E
Recent Movement: E at 22 km/h

Remarks: TC Raymond has accelerated eastwards and is now expected to cross the north Kimberley coast between Kalumburu and Mitchell Plateau before midnight WST. Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected along the north Kimberley coast near the cyclone centre at first tonight, but should abate rapidly as the cyclone moves inland and weakens into a tropical low during Monday morning.

[James]

NRL are now listing it as a tropical system. Unfortunately the current forecast track being shown is that of Cyclone Heta a year ago.

[Aslkahuna]

Advisory No.1 on TC07S has been issued by JTWC.

Steve

[James]

Well, Raymond seems to be intensifying pretty quickly at the moment. It looks a lot better organised now than it did a few hours ago.

[senorpepr]

Tropical Cyclone Raymond (07S) (02/0600Z)
14.3S 123.6E
60 mph
987 mb / 29.15"

[Mezocyclone]

Heavy convection is displayed, yet the storm exhibits a wave tendency. The circulation is only isolated to the center and there doesn't appear to be any further developing winds outside the wrap. It seems to be split on a North to South movement of shear.

Though I am not deeply familiar with our southern hemi's influences, the system is transparent in its identity and development. It is being torn from the Westerlies from behind.

[HURAKAN]

From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

The tropical low [ex-TC Raymond], 998 hPa, is situated in the northern Victoria River district. The low will continue to move eastwards and is not expected to develop during the next three days.