South Atlantic activity = bulletins?

[senorpepr]

I know this was brought up a lot during Hurricane Catarina from last year. Now we have a system, 90T, that we're monitoring near Brazil again. It seems that some agency should write tropical advisories for such storms, in the event they occur. There's no need for additional lives to be lost like during Catarina last year. What are your opinions?

Here's an example advisory that I wrote up, for grins, on Catarina if the NHC took responsibility for the South Atlantic. (Once again, it's an example and NOT a real advisory...)

Code: Select all

WTNT31 KNHC 271458
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CATARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT MAR 27 2004

...RARE SOUTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE APPROACHES BRAZIL...
 
INTERESTS IN PARANA...SANTA CATARINA...AND RIO GRANDE DO SUL
PROVINCES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CATARINA.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CATARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 SOUTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF FLORIANOPOLIS BRAZIL.
 
CATARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...135 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 75 MILES...120 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 29.5 S... 46.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
85 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
 
FORECASTER SMITH
 
$$


[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think storm2k forecasters should write them...I wish I could do it.

A side note that system yesterday could been tropical depression 3. Why three? Because of the January 19th in March 26th to 30 tropical cyclones that why.

[senorpepr]

I think storm2k forecasters should write them...I wish I could do it.

A side note that system yesterday could been tropical depression 3. Why three? Because of the January 19th in March 26th to 30 tropical cyclones that why.

Yup... good call.

[Derek Ortt]

its a different season, so this would be TD 1 (southern hemisphere season always starts with the new year, even if it starts in december)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Derek, don't let UNISYS confuse you. The "new year" for Southern Hemisphere seasons typically starts on July 1 (The first tropical cyclone to form July 1 or after will be TC 01S/P/T.

[senorpepr]

That's right. That completely slipped my mind. Southern hemispheric storms would start their respective seasons on 01 July.

[James]

Has anyone noticed that Unisys has started using a new format to display tropical cyclone tracks? Instead of having a close up of the storm track, the image shown is that of a greatly zoomed-out (is that actually a term? ) perspective. While it shows where the storm is, it prevents you from getting a closer look at the track and the advisories issued.

I'm not having a dig at Unisys, it's a very useful site - but I was just wondering whether anyone else felt the same way.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

G. Another Possible Subtropical System
--------------------------------------

For an ocean which is not considered a tropical cyclone basin to have
had two possible tropical cyclones in the same season is remarkable, but
there was yet a third system which deserves mention. This system
occurred several days before the pre-Catarina LOW formed. I received an
e-mail from David Roth at HPC on the morning of 15 March regarding a
LOW which was developing off southern Brazil. To quote part of David's
message: "It looks subtropical in satellite pix due to the shear present
and weak frontal tail extending NNW of the LOW despite the convection
pulsing SE of the center (there is a broad, weak 5 C gradient across the
frontal feature)...but when looking at 500 hPa the temps are up to -5 C
and the SSTs are near 25 C, so it appears to be warm core. It could
merely be a sheared TC...but that weak front keeps me from thinking that
it's fully tropical.

"A buoy a bit south of the center has had sustained winds of 20-30 kts
since midday Sunday (14 March), and pressures a bit west of the center
are down to 1009 hPa at 1000 UTC, so the subtropical definition might be
a better fit. The satellite imagery looked best at 0300 UTC, when
convection entirely covered the center and a weak feeder band attempted
to form on the convection's north side."


H. Link to Further Information
------------------------------

Chris Velden at the University of Wisconsin and his associates have
made available a webpage devoted to coverage of Cyclone Catarina. Many
satellite images, as well as graphs of data from other sensors, may be
found. The link to this outstanding compendium of Catarina data is:

<http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/brazil/brazil.html>

(Report written by Gary Padgett)