Possible development near Madagascar

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James
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Possible development near Madagascar

#1 Postby James » Sat Jan 01, 2005 4:23 am

97S has emerged off the west coast of Madagascar. Looks fairly well organised. Does anyone have any thoughts on the system?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=JAN&BASIN=SHEM&STORM_NAME=97S.INVEST&PROD=latest1km&PHOT=yes&AGE=Latest&ARCHIVE=active&TYPE=ssmi&SIZE=thumb&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20050101.0630.meteo5.x.vis1km.97SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-168S-437E.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/SHEM/97S.INVEST/ssmi/latest1km&STYLE=tables&ATCF_NAME=sh971&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/SHEM/97S.INVEST/ssmi/latest1km
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jan 01, 2005 4:33 am

If it'll move away from land, I think it has a good shot at development.
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#3 Postby mobilebay » Sat Jan 01, 2005 4:33 am

Maybe a weak low level circulation. I do not see much low level inflow on the Visible animation. However, it is maintaining some decent convection near the suspected LLC.
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#4 Postby James » Sat Jan 01, 2005 7:32 am

It is now looking very ragged indeed. I guess the interaction with Madagascar disrupted it too much.
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#5 Postby James » Tue Jan 04, 2005 10:30 am

And it clings on. 97S is looking very well organised, and could become a tropical cyclone.

From the JTWC:

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 18.5S4 39.8E0,
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. RECENT MICROWAVE AND EARLIER ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED BUT SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT
IN QUIKSCAT DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
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