EXCUSE MY LANGUAGE BUT...HOLY CRAP!

Guest · #1 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:34 pm

DOUBLE WAMMY! OMAHA-FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET JAN 4-5,HEAVY SNOW JAN 4-5,HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW JAN 3-5 MUCH BELOW TEMPS JAN 2-5! i NOCKED OVER MY CAN OF SODA AND SPILLED ALL OVER THE FLOOR IN EXCITMENT!

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:38 pm

Somebody just wanted to use a lot colors on that map... looks a bit overdone IMO.

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:39 pm

It sfrom the NWS.

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:41 pm

yoda wrote:looks a bit overdone IMO.

I would have to say so. I don't think there is much doubt that something maybe affecting the plains, but that seems a bit crazy. I have found the "Threats Assessment" to be a little "liberal" like.

yoda · #5 Postby **yoda** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:43 pm

Craig-OmahaWX wrote:It sfrom the NWS.

I think its actually made by the HPC... but I am not sure. I was only saying it looked overdone because I don't think that there will be THAT much going on.

LOL NEWeatheguy...

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:48 pm

im not listing to one word your saying. I thought everyone would be happy. And this is all possible. All ingreditents forr something like this...tones of Moist air from the gulf...also it would be fantastic if we had a couple of snowdays!

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:48 pm

I think the HPC is a division of NOAA. Plus, I don't place MUCH stock in a product that is issued only once maybe twice a week. WHich leads me to my next point: that is a full week's worth of weather. Areas may recieve heavy rain on Monday, but by Wednesday, they may have wintry precip. Still I think the map is way too "Bill CLinton". :lol:

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:50 pm

Yah...but ill take it! i'l keep a watch on this system!

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:51 pm

You live in Omaha too! Me too!

Guest · #10 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:51 pm

Craig-OmahaWX wrote:Yah...but ill take it! i'l keep a watch on this system!

It would be a good idea to keep an eye on this ssytem. It is Murphey's Law: my mom has to return to work at an elementary school. :lol:

Something is bound to happen! :LOL:

#11 Postby **wx247** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:53 pm

Craig-OmahaWX wrote:im not listing to one word your saying. I thought everyone would be happy. And this is all possible. All ingreditents forr something like this...tones of Moist air from the gulf...also it would be fantastic if we had a couple of snowdays!

Listening is key to learning! Also... I hope you aren't -removed- for the sake of missing school.

Guest · #12 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:55 pm

Well.....I'm just following other forecast. I mean ...look at that map. Ice,Snow,High Winds and Blowing snow. We would have to get out of school. FOR OUR SAFETY

#13 Postby **wxguy25** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:21 pm

Craig-OmahaWX wrote:Well.....I'm just following other forecast.

Why?

Your not gaining any practical experience in forecasting if you go by what others say. Make your OWN forecast based on your personal interpretation of the weather. Developing your own forecasting methods is something that NO undergrad course is going to teach you and is absolutely necessary for success in this business.

dvdweatherwizard · #14 Postby **dvdweatherwizard** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:25 pm

yoda wrote:
Craig-OmahaWX wrote:It sfrom the NWS.

I think its actually made by the HPC... but I am not sure. I was only saying it looked overdone because I don't think that there will be THAT much going on.

LOL NEWeatheguy...

I think the HPC is a division of NOAA. Plus, I don't place MUCH stock in a product that is issued only once maybe twice a week. WHich leads me to my next point: that is a full week's worth of weather. Areas may recieve heavy rain on Monday, but by Wednesday, they may have wintry precip. Still I think the map is way too "Bill CLinton".

I believe that map actually came from the Climate Prediction Center, or CPC, which is also a branch of the National Weather Service, which is a division of NOAA. Here are some links to where the CPC has that map posted on their website.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... reats.html
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... index.html
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert ... reats.html

This appears to be their "hazard assessment" product. Information on that can be found at this link. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/

Notice that is says

On Tuesday, the CPC issues an assessment of weather- and climate-related hazards to the United States for the next three to ten days.

However, the map that CPC created says that it was made on December 30th, which is Thursday. They appear to have some outdated information on their website, so I'm not sure when or how frequently this product gets issued.

Guest · #15 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:52 pm

huhhh??? Outdated...it's all new?? Except the Heavy Rain and Drought.

Guest · #16 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:54 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
247 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004

BOTH ETA AND GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCE ON SATURDAY
AS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW RIDE INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES OFF THE SURFACE INDICATE A LIQUID EVENT...AND
HAVE MOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA WILL LIKELY HOLD AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...SO FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY THERE. A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...BUT THINK WITH A COUPLE OF
WARM DAYS AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE
ACCUMULATION OF GLAZE WILL BEGIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SO
HAVE CONTINUED DRY FORECAST THEN. TEMPERATURES AGAIN A QUESTION BUT
SUNSHINE AND MIXING SHOULD BUMP US UP TO ABOVE FREEZING.

ANOTHER CHUNK OF ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE CWA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN WILL HAVE SAME PROBLEM WITH LAYER TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND THUS PRECIP TYPE. WHETHER SHALLOW COLD AIR SLIPS SOUTH
OR NOT...TEMPERATURES OFF THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT RAIN AHEAD OF
NEXT WAVE SO FREEZING PRECIP A CONTINUED THREAT. AS WAVE MOVES
OVERHEAD THEN EAST...EXPECT COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BE
PRIMARY PRECIP MODE. ALL OF THIS IS STILL IN FLUX...BUT THE ONE
THING ALL THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON
SURFACE LAYER COOLING OR LACK THEREOF.

sertorius · #17 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:54 pm

Flooding for my area??? I don't really think so-by Wed. afternoon both the euro and gfs have the 0 850 line south of me to at least give me 12 hours of frozen precip. In my opinion, this is a direct copy of the 0z GFS and does not take into account the more southern track of the euro/ukmet/Canadian. On the 06z data the gfs already began to bring it a bit further south and by what I just saw on the 12z, has done the same thing. To be sure, Omaha has a much better chance of a serious snow storm than I do 200 miles south-but flooding-I don't think that is in the cards-I really feel we are being set up for some rain, fr. rain, then lt. snow on the back side Thursday morning-of course, I really have no true expertese to make this call, just based on past storm with similar tracks that is what I am looking for. No doubt the central plains from Wichita to Saint Louis needs to be on the look out next week. -I just noticed I mis read that map :oops:

heavy rain and not flooding-I could def. see us with some heavy rain esp. Sunday and Tuesday-I'm still not convinced it will all be liquid however.

Guest · #18 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 3:56 pm

You see my discussion? So will have a seroius snowstorm?? How bout ice too?

sertorius · #19 Postby **sertorius** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:06 pm

Craig:

All of us are in danger of a serious ice storm or just plain rain-the further north you are, the better chance for all snow-if the low tracks far enough to the south, it could bring down more cold air and snow for a wider area-if it tracks like the current gfs, you are looking at all kinds of stuff: rain, fr. rain/sleet/snow while I am looking at mostly rain-again the NWS is spot on on this: there is a serious sw flow up above (today it is on my head with gusts to 40 mph at the
surface) so an ice storm is going to nail someone-it is fun to discuss this, but to early to give many details-be sure that we are under the gun next week in the central plains for some wild weather-finally-man has it been boring here-the NWS guys in Topeka can stop posting bball scores on thier AFD because they will have something to talk about!!! (I guess the wind today is pretty incredible along with the record temps!!)

Guest · #20 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 30, 2004 4:14 pm

Yah...We got to 66 in omaha!

EXCUSE MY LANGUAGE BUT...HOLY CRAP!

EXCUSE MY LANGUAGE BUT...HOLY CRAP!

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