Oh man... 18z ETA

[Brent]

So so close.



Precip shield is right near me but thicknesses don't support snow.

Then again... the snow that fell in TX today fell with thicknesses a good bit above 540.

[Dan]

Columbia SC NWS office buying to idea of possible winter weather on Sunday...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
253 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...
MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CAN NOT
IGNORE POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME...APPEARS
TO BE MINOR EVENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN
CANADA NOW AMPLIFYING...WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LOW CUT OFF IN NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS GULF COASTAL STATES TO CAROLINAS. WEAK SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW...WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE MOISTURE ABOVE 15000 FT...AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH SHORT
WAVES AND RESULTING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SCT LIGHT PRECIP HAS
BEEN FALLING ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF MIDLANDS...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SLEET...MODERATE SLEET REPORTED IN BAMBERG EARLIER. SURFACE
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO NO PROBLEMS. RADAR INDICATING PRECIP MOVING
EAST OF REGION. ETA BUFKIT T-SECTIONS SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE LATER
THIS EVENING...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH MID LEVELS BECOMING MORE
MOIST...OMEGA NOTED...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET...IN THE CAE AREA MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ISOTHERMAL...BUT LESS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES INTO AREA SATURDAY...BUT
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.
UPPER LOW IN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG GULF COAST AND
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW 500MB VORT ADVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA THEN OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY.UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS GOOD
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING IN THE CAE
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE OGB AREA. GFS ISENTROPIC LIFT/850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION STRONGER THAN ETA...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS FOCUS
ADVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NEW ENGLAND WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAY
SET UP COLD AIR DAMMING...SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE COOLER...THAN CURRENT
THINKING. PLAN ON CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HEAVIER PRECIP
EAST OF MIDLANDS. PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES INDICATES A WINTRY PRECIP
MIX...WITH RAIN AND SLEET EAST...AND RAIN AND SNOW WEST AND NORTH IN
COOLER AIR. INTERESTING THAT GFS HINTS AT FREEZING RAIN PROBLEM WITH
SURFACE BELOW 0C. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM CAROLINA COAST...GFS A LITTLE SLOWER DRYING OUT MID LEVELS
THAN ETA.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD TRICKY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO HOLD
TEMPS UP TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY...THINK LOW 50S TOO
OPTIMISTIC...TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON COLD AIR DAMMING...
WENT WITH COOLER MAV GUIDANCE SUNDAY WITH CLOUDINESS AND SOME
SCATTERED PRECIP...CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS IN THE LOW 40S AT CAE.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE COLD IN THE 20S WITH CLEARING SKIES.

[Brent]

Hmmmmm....

NWS BMX has us Mostly Clear with a low of 27 tomorrow night.

[Brent]

FFC

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...REACHING ONLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY..MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CSG TO MCN TO AGS. SOME OF
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE PRECIP AREA WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEREFORE MENTION A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT SLEET...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW OVER GA. CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTING A CHANCE AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL THEREFORE NOT MENTION ANY WATCHES AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OBVIOUSLY.

I'm only 30 miles NW of CSG.

[Bane]

Maybe we'll find a way to get that White Christmas afterall.

[Brent]

I'm north of the 32 degree line.