My preliminary forecast for the 2005 season.

[cycloneye]

My brief Preliminary forecast about the 2005 season is another active however not as active as the 2004 season had in terms of many major hurricanes this 2005 season.It look like another season that will follow the string of years of active seasons since 1995 will continue as the majority of the parameters are pointing that way starting with ENSO which will come out of the present weak el nino stage by next spring turning into a neutral status causing that the ENSO factor will not be important like it is now that capped the 2004 season since mid october when the weak el nino appeared at the equatorial pacific.Another factor that will make the 2005 season an active one is the above normal warm sst's in the atlantic caused by the atlantic thermoline circulation that will continue to move warmer than normal waters thru the basin.The factor that will be the less favorable one inhibiting the formation of many hurricanes especially major ones are the QBO winds which are poised to blow from the east not being so favorable as in 2004 when 6 major canes formed caused by the west QBO.I will elaborate much more when I make my final forecast for the 2005 season by mid april but my numbers for now are 12/7/3 however in summary I see a season that will be with activity slightly above the average but below what the 2004 season brought.

Note:

This preliminary forecast does not include landfall probabilities because I will include them in my final forecast.

[Derek Ortt]

Just a heads up, a trop met class project at rsmas last eyar showed ZERO correlation between QBO and hurricane activity and as such, I believe that NOAA no longer uses QBO as a factor in their seasonal forecasts

[Stormsfury]

Just a heads up, a trop met class project at rsmas last eyar showed ZERO correlation between QBO and hurricane activity and as such, I believe that NOAA no longer uses QBO as a factor in their seasonal forecasts

if you can dig that up, please post that (if you can)

past research I've done also could suggest those findings, especially in regards to 1996 with a strongly EAST QBO, and we also had 6 majors ...

SF

[cycloneye]

Derek I would like to see that if you can bring that information.

[Anonymous]

The following statistics compare W QBO seasons and E QBO seasons beginning with 1995, which is of course when the ATC strengthened. Data from the last ten years is being highlighted due to the assumption that researchers no longer see strong evidence of a correlation since recent seasons may not reflect linkage as well as previous periods or long term averages. Going by seasonal statistics alone, my view is that the QBO/MH correlation still exists. When one compares the total of MHs forming during E QBO and W QBO seasons, there is hardly any evidence of linkgage. Nevertheless, by eliminating 1997 due to a strong El Nino episode the stats do reveal somewhat of a correlation. The sample is rather small but ENSO may have to be given more weight before we rule the QBO out as a significant seasonal parameter. This may very well have been covered in the research project, and I too would be interested in learning more about this theory.

ENSO region 3.4 SSTAs during ASO are included.

W QBO
01. 1995: 19 / 11 / 4 (-0.5)
02. 1997: 08 / 03 / 1 (+2.3)
03. 1999: 12 / 08 / 5 (-1.0)
04. 2002: 12 / 04 / 2 (+1.1)
05. 2004: 15 / 09 / 6 (+0.9)

Average: 13.2 / 7.0 / 3.6

Subtract '97: 14.5 / 8.0 / 4.5

E QBO
01. 1996: 13 / 09 / 6 (-0.2)
02. 1998: 14 / 10 / 3 (-1.1)
03. 2000: 15 / 08 / 3 (-0.4)
04. 2001: 15 / 09 / 4 (0.00)
05. 2003: 16 / 08 / 3 (+0.5)

Average: 14.6 / 8.8 / 3.8

La Nina events:
W QBO: 4.5
E QBO: 4.0

El Nino events (not including '97):

W QBO: 4.0
E QBO: 3.0

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure if the ppt file is online anywhere and I will need to look at it more closely (I'll ask her tomorrow about this project if I go into the office in the morning)

One major problem regarding using QBO is: what is the physical mechanism that causes the correlation? This has yet to be answered by anyone

[Derek Ortt]

I also would not exclude 1997 from the sample. By doing so, a prime example of QBO not making things favorable is excluded from the sample.

[Anonymous]

I would not have excluded 97 if an E QBO season had a comparable ENSO episode. Such a strong ENSO episode could possibly overwhelm any favorable aspect of a W QBO. What caught my attention the most was that 3/5 of recent W QBO seasons had a mod/strong El Nino while the only E QBO/Nino year was 2003....and Nino was weak at best.

[Anonymous]

And I should have added this...

Probability of a Hurricane becoming an Intense Hurricane...

W QBO: 51.4%
E QBO: 23.1%

[cycloneye]

I agree that the QBO factor is cancelled if a strong el nino is present but until new evidence that the QBO(Quassi Bannar Occillation) is somewhere and not a factor in a big way every year I will see it as one of the parameters that makes a season more active ot not depending on how those upper winds are blowing.

[Stormsfury]

And I should have added this...

Probability of a Hurricane becoming an Intense Hurricane...

W QBO: 51.4%
E QBO: 23.1%

Going by QBO correlations ALONE, the tendencies for MH's are 2 to 1 since 1995 ... but we need core samples from ALL the available QBO years if someone has the time to configure ... but it doesn't exactly appear to be the QBO itself, but what kind of influence it has on the overall pattern ...

also: the QBO alone DOES have influences on mid-latitude weather, most notable in the wintertime (for potential major winter systems found to be at a -5 to +5 average ... I hope donsutherland reads this thread and continues this ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Dr. Landsea responded to my email and emphasized the two things Derek mentioned...1.) NOAA has dropped the QBO parameter. 2.) a study done for a class project at UMiami shows pretty conclusively that the QBO-Atlantic TC association broke down after Gray first identified it in 1984 MWR.

Sounds like everyone is convinced....now i'm really anxious to see that ppt! .

[Derek Ortt]

I'll ask about the ppt on wednesday.

I am wondering how everyone's seasonal forecasts will change now that it is known that QBO is not a parameter that should be used

[cycloneye]

I'll ask about the ppt on wednesday.

I am wondering how everyone's seasonal forecasts will change now that it is known that QBO is not a parameter that should be used

Mines will not change in a big way towards a much more active season if I take out the QBO factor because then other factors will be factored in the anaylisis that I will make in my forecast of april.

[Scorpion]

I think everyone is underestimating the 2005 season just because 2004 was so bad. I wouldnt be surprised if we had 4 majors and 15 names storms.

[cyclonaut]

I believe 2005 will be somewhat slower than this season..Having said that it will still be above average & I see more storms menacing coastlines near you.

[HurricaneBill]

There have been seasons that have been around average or slightly above average, yet produced a large amount of powerful storms.

Seasons with 12 named storms or less, but also produced at least 3 major hurricanes:
1950 12/11/8
1951 10/8/5
1952 6/6/3
1953 8/6/4
1955 11/10/6
1958 10/7/5
1961 10/8/7
1964 9/6/6
1966 11/7/3
1975 8/6/3
1981 11/7/3
1985 11/7/3
1988 11/5/3
1999 12/8/5

I'm thinking 2005 might be similar to 1999.

Also, keep in mind, not every season is gonna be shooting storms out left and right. The Atlantic needs to take a breather once in a while.

[Stormsfury]

I'll ask about the ppt on wednesday.

I am wondering how everyone's seasonal forecasts will change now that it is known that QBO is not a parameter that should be used

The factor on the QBO still might be factored into my outlook (but NOT on the traditional format, but used as a guide for judging mid-latitude patterns, and what effects this results in the tropical latitudes for 2005.)

Very interesting, and good thread this has turned out to be, and I, too, look forward to the ppt ...

SF

[Derek Ortt]

Its going to take me a little longer than I thought because the lady who gave the presentation, doesn't have the ppt with her at the present time. If I can get it, I'll post it if I can

[Anonymous]

No rush....thanks for the update.