Tropical Storm Talas at WPAC

[SafeStorm.org]

We expect that tropical storm 31W (TALAS) will quieten in three days.

Vladimir
SafeStorm.org

[Scorpion]

Is it possible that later on down the road, the remnants of TALAS could slam into western North America and become a major player in our WINTER WEATHER in the East?!!!!

What if all that moisture hit the CONUS right when we have a ton of frigid weather in the East? I wonder if that could end up being a BIG DOG snowstorm for the central and eastern US down the road?

This is something to keep in mind folks..................

Im sorry that made no sense whatsoever. This tropical storm is moving toward Asia not the west coast.

[P.K.]

This has also just appeared:


WTPS21 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 122051ZDEC2004//
RMKS/
1. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8S2 172.2E2 TO 18.4S3 174.4E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121730Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9 173.0E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.4S9 173.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 121807Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE, AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 132100Z7.//

[cycloneye]

Tropical_Cyclone_PublicAdvisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPQ31 PGUM 121903
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TALAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
5 AM GUAM LST MON DEC 13 2004


TROPICAL STORM TALAS MOVING WESTWARD INTO YAP STATE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. THIS MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TALAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.5 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 95 MILES NORTH OF ULUL
350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
610 MILES EAST OF FAIS
675 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
775 MILES EAST OF YAP

TROPICAL STORM TALAS IS MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALAS IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SLOWLY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 4 AM POSITION...9.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 149.5 DEGREES
EAST MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM TALAS LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
8 AM GUAM LST.

PRIOR

[cycloneye]

Tropical_Cyclone_PublicAdvisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPQ31 PGUM 122204
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TALAS ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 AM GUAM LST MON DEC 13 2004


TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELED FOR GUAM

AS OF 8 AM GUAM LST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUAM HAS BEEN
CANCELED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ON GUAM
FROM TROPICAL STORM TALAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IF
TROPICAL STORM TALAS CONTINUES TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST..2100Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TALAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.7 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND ROTA
400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
560 MILES EAST OF FAIS
620 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
720 MILES EAST OF YAP.

TROPICAL STORM TALAS IS MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALAS
IS FORECAST TO SLOW SLIGHTLY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALAS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 148.7 DEGREES
EAST MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM TALAS LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST.

PRIOR


The Tropical Storm Warning that was issued for Guam has been cancelled as Tropical Storm Talas has taken a west track and not a more north one and that is very good news for those people there.

[P.K.]

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (TALAS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 10.5N6 144.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N6 144.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 11.3N5 141.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 12.1N4 139.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 12.9N2 137.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 13.8N2 135.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 15.3N9 132.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 16.3N0 131.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 18.2N1 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.7N8 143.3E1.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7,
140300Z8, 140900Z4 AND 141500Z1.//

[P.K.]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
13/1425 UTC 10.8N 143.3E T2.0/2.5 TALAS
13/0825 UTC 10.2N 145.0E T2.5/3.0 TALAS
13/0302 UTC 10.3N 146.9E T2.5/3.0 TALAS
12/2025 UTC 9.7N 148.5E T2.5/3.0 TALAS
12/1425 UTC 9.8N 150.3E T3.0/3.0 TALAS
12/0825 UTC 9.8N 152.2E T3.0/3.5 TALAS
12/0225 UTC 9.8N 154.6E T3.0/3.5 TALAS

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (TALAS) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 11.2N4 142.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N4 142.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 12.2N5 140.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 12.9N2 137.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 13.7N1 135.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 14.7N2 134.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 15.7N3 132.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 16.7N4 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 18.6N5 129.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.5N7 141.8E4.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8, 140900Z4, 141500Z1 AND 142100Z8.//

[Scorpion]

Wow, looks to be a non-event.

[P.K.]

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (TALAS) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 11.7N9 139.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N9 139.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 12.6N9 136.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 13.6N0 134.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 14.4N9 132.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 15.2N8 131.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 16.3N0 129.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 17.7N5 128.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 19.0N0 127.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.9N1 138.5E7.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 11 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1, 142100Z8, 150300Z9 AND 150900Z5.//

NNNN

[James]

Wow, looks to be a non-event.

It would seem so. Wasn't it expected to be a CAT 3 typhoon at this time originally?

[P.K.]

Warning number 8 had it at 85kts (With gusts of 105kts) at 6pm today.

Edit - Warning number 6 had it as high as 100kts with gusts of 125kts

[James]

Just goes to show the unpredictability of these systems.

[P.K.]

They need to hire Michael Fish........if he isn't too busy working for Metcheck.

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (TALAS) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 12.2N5 137.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N5 137.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 12.7N0 135.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 13.3N7 133.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 13.8N2 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 14.3N8 131.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 15.0N6 130.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 15.9N5 129.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 17.4N2 127.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.3N6 136.6E6.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9, 150900Z5,
151500Z2 AND 152100Z9.//

[James]

They need to hire Michael Fish........if he isn't too busy working for Metcheck.

LOL

[HurricaneBill]

Just goes to show the unpredictability of these systems.

Yeah, wasn't Muifa supposed to barely reach typhoon status?

[James]

I believe so. Come to think of it, I'm not sure it was even expected to get that strong, but I could very well be wrong, lol.

[Gorky]

At one point Muifa was 150 miles from the Philippines on the 15th, 35kt winds, and forecast to reach 40kt before landfall just 1 day later. In reality, it strengthened to 60kt on the 16th, 100kt on the 17th, peaked at 110kt on the 18th, and din't make landfall until the early hours of the 20th. That one storm alone is going to screw up the jtwc's forecast success for this year

[PurdueWx80]

Is it possible that later on down the road, the remnants of TALAS could slam into western North America and become a major player in our WINTER WEATHER in the East?!!!!

What if all that moisture hit the CONUS right when we have a ton of frigid weather in the East? I wonder if that could end up being a BIG DOG snowstorm for the central and eastern US down the road?

This is something to keep in mind folks..................

Im sorry that made no sense whatsoever. This tropical storm is moving toward Asia not the west coast.

The storm is forecast to recurve, and I think that is what the author is referring to. This is a teleconnection - once it recurves, major amplficiation (deepening of a trough) is almost a sure bet in eastern North America 6-10 days down the road. These processes were involved with the most recent pattern change which brought the current cold wx to the CONUS (recurve of the last Phillipine storm).