Tropical Storm Talas at WPAC

[cycloneye]

WTPN21 PGTW 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/092151ZDEC2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.8N4 173.7E8 TO 7.7N4 164.8E9
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 092030Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N7 171.5E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N6
177.9E4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N7 171.5E4, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
INCREASING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. BASED ON THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 102200Z5.//





Looks like there is a good chance to see another cyclone in the WPAC very soon.

[Hurricanehink]

You're right. According to NRL, it is now 31W.

[HURAKAN]

As usual, the parade continues!!! Guam be ready!

[Aslkahuna]

Need to keep an eye on this one-12 years ago we had one develop out near Kwajalein and it bombed to 160kt-STY Gay. Though it weakened when it passed over Guam, it reintensified and recurved near Taiwan and became ET south of Japan whereupon it caught a high energy southern El Niño enhanced southern branch jet and rocketted into the western US where it raised holy hell.

Steve

[HurricaneBill]

Need to keep an eye on this one-12 years ago we had one develop out near Kwajalein and it bombed to 160kt-STY Gay. Though it weakened when it passed over Guam, it reintensified and recurved near Taiwan and became ET south of Japan whereupon it caught a high energy southern El Niño enhanced southern branch jet and rocketted into the western US where it raised holy hell.

Steve

Gay didn't end there, Steve. After raising holy hell in the western US, the system across the US, developed into a powerful nor'easter and went up the east coast. (It was that powerful snowstorm in mid-December 1992).

Gay is often refered to as "the storm that wouldn't die".

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 8.4N2 169.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N2 169.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 8.8N6 165.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 9.0N9 161.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 9.3N2 157.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 9.5N4 153.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 10.1N2 147.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 8.5N3 168.7E2.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 100530Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z7 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7, 102100Z4,
110300Z5 AND 110900Z1.//

It looks like it will be passing south of Guam but it is too early to say for sure that they are out of the woods.

[Dave C]

One of the islands it just passed had tropical storm force sustained winds. Could be very interesting for Guam in about 3 days.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PKWA.html

[Gorky]

It was upgraded to a Tropical Storm at the last update. Will pass very cloase to Guam if it follows the current track.


WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 8.5N3 168.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N3 168.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 8.9N7 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 9.5N4 160.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 10.1N2 156.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 10.7N8 152.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 12.7N0 145.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 16.2N9 141.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 19.4N4 139.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 8.6N4 167.2E6.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 and 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z4 IS 11 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4, 110300Z5,
110900Z1 AND 111500Z8.//

[HURAKAN]

It looks like this time the Philippines will be missed, fortunately!

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 8.3N1 166.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N1 166.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 8.4N2 161.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 8.9N7 157.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 9.5N4 153.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 10.4N5 148.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 12.4N7 141.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 14.2N7 137.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 16.6N3 135.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 8.3N1 165.0E2.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST OF POHN-
PEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTEN-
SITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SURPRESSED OUTFLOW
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, AND DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WELL CONSOLI-
DATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 11 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDI-
TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5, 110900Z1,
111500Z8 AND 112100Z5.//

Looks like Guam will not get a direct hit from this system.

[Dave C]

Except long range doppler LOL

[HURAKAN]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 31W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM GUAM LST SAT DEC 11 2004


TROPICAL STORM 31W MOVING WEST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING

AT 8 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KWAJALEIN HAS BEEN CANCELED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ENEWETAK HAS BEEN CANCELED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UJAE.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS...POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM 31W.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
GREATER.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST..2100Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 31W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 165.0 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UJAE
195 MILES WEST OF KWAJALEIN
295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
475 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
900 MILES EAST OF CHUUK.

TROPICAL STORM 31W IS MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 31W WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...8.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 165.0 DEGREES
EAST MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 31W LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 PM GUAM LST.

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the list is "Talas".

When Talas gets named, it will be the 28th named system in the WPAC. Overall, I'd say this was an active year for the WPAC. Also a destructive one.

In case you were wondering, 4 names have been removed from the typhoon list.

They are:
Typhoon Vamei
Super Typhoon Chataan
Typhoon Rusa
Super Typhoon Imbudo

Vamei will be replaced by "Peipah"
Chataan will be replaced by "Matmo"
Rusa will be replaced by "Nuri"
Imbudo will be replaced by "Molave"

[Gorky]

31W is now 45 kts and the forecast has yet again shifted northwards towards Guam. It is predicted to come as close as 50 miles from Guam

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 9.1N0 162.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N0 162.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 9.4N3 158.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 9.7N6 154.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 10.5N6 150.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 11.7N9 146.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.0N5 141.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 15.3N9 137.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 16.5N2 135.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 9.2N1 161.1E9.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1055 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A BANDING
FEATURE LOCATED ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS EMBEDDED UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 16 FEET. REFER
TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8, 112100Z5, 120300Z6 AND 120900Z2.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TALAS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 PM GUAM LST SAT DEC 11 2004


TROPICAL STORM TALAS MOVING STEADILY TOWARDS THE HALL ISLANDS

AS OF 8 PM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH ARE
IN EFFECT FOR FANANU AND ULUL.

AS OF 8 PM GUAM LST...A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA
...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED....AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
48 HOURS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS...AND CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM TALAS.

AT 7 PM GUAM LST..0900Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TALAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.1 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
630 MILES EAST OF FANANU
640 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
780 MILES EAST OF ULUL
1115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
1120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
1130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
1145 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM TALAS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 26 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...9.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 161.1 DEGREES
EAST MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 26 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
50 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM TALAS LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
2 AM GUAM LST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.


A Typhoon watch has been issued for Guam and the rest of the Mariana Islands.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (TALAS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 9.8N7 157.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N7 157.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 10.5N6 152.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 11.3N5 147.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 12.5N8 144.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 13.7N1 140.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 15.8N4 137.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 17.9N7 135.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 19.1N1 133.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 10.0N1 155.8E9.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A MOSTLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. HOWEVER, MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH ASYMMETRY IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION, LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6,
120900Z2, 121500Z9 AND 122100Z6.//

The latest track is for the center of Talas to pass just south of Guam but any deviation will cause it to move over that island.

[Anonymous]

Is it possible that later on down the road, the remnants of TALAS could slam into western North America and become a major player in our WINTER WEATHER in the East?!!!!

What if all that moisture hit the CONUS right when we have a ton of frigid weather in the East? I wonder if that could end up being a BIG DOG snowstorm for the central and eastern US down the road?

This is something to keep in mind folks..................


-Jeb

[cycloneye]

120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 31W (TALAS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 10.0N1 153.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N1 153.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 10.9N0 149.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 11.9N1 145.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 13.1N5 142.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.1N6 139.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 15.6N2 136.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 17.8N6 133.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 19.9N9 132.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 10.2N3 152.2E0.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATEL-
LITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9, 122100Z6, 130300Z7
AND 130900Z3.//

If the current track continues the center of Talas will pass south of Guam.

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPQ31 PGUM 120939 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TALAS ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
8 PM GUAM LST SUN DEC 12 2004


TROPICAL STORM TALAS PASSING NORTH OF CHUUK

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FANANU AND ULUL IS CANCELLED AS OF 8
PM GUAM LST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. THIS MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS OF 8 PM GUAM LST.

AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TALAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.2 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF FANANU
190 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK
205 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULUL
545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
555 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN

TROPICAL STORM TALAS IS MOVING WEST AT 24 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM TALAS IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SLOWLY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...10.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 152.2 DEGREES
EAST MOVING WEST AT 24 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR LOCAL AREA...REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM TALAS LOCAL STATEMENT /WTPQ81 PGUM/ AND PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 AM GUAM LST MONDAY.

MCELROY