Tropical Cyclone Reports for 2004 Atlantic season Thread

#81 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 02, 2004 12:07 pm

Now that Otto is gone you can expect the reports that are left to come out in the next few days.

#82 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 11:38 am

The NHC need still to finish 3 systems in the EPAC and 5 in the Atlantic.

#83 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 12:32 pm

Yes that is the case Sandy but hopefully the atlantic 5 come out soon.

#84 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Dec 05, 2004 6:46 pm

Let's see if this week they issue the 5 reports that are left in the Atlantic but for sure the Ivan report will be the last one because many stats and data has to be analized about this record making cane from it's birth until it made landfall in the Gulf Coast.

#85 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Dec 08, 2004 4:19 pm

Hurricane Alex Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004alex.shtml?

Tropical Storm Bonnie Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004bonnie.shtml?

Hurricane Charley Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?

Hurricane Danielle Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004danielle.shtml

Tropical Storm Earl Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004earl.shtml?

Hurricane Gaston Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004gaston.shtml?

Tropical Storm Hermine Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004hermine.shtml?

Tropical Depression Ten Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ten.shtml

Hurricane Jeanne Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004jeanne.shtml

Hurricane Lisa Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004lisa.shtml

Tropical Storm Matthew Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004matthew.shtml?

Tropical Storm Otto Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004otto.shtml?

Now only four reports left as Tropical Storm Otto Report is out.Nothing of interest with Otto only that formed on the last hours of the season.

#86 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Dec 08, 2004 4:31 pm

I can comprehend that the NHC has to work harder doing the "Best Tracks" of Frances, and Iván because of their destructive power and lots of reports to investigate. But I can't comprehend why they need so much time to do Karl and Nicole. There is nothing outstanding about them. Maybe they are doing the most importants before.

#87 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Dec 08, 2004 4:35 pm

What you say Sandy raises questions about the reports that are left.They for sure are going thru many stats and data to make a complete report on Frances and Ivan.About Karl and Nicole I dont understand why they haved delayed them.

#88 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Dec 08, 2004 5:12 pm

I have something of note about the REPORT on Otto, not the storm. I think I found a typo in the report in the best track:

05 / 0000 25.5 51.1 1012 20 "
05 / 0600 25.9 50.1 1013 20 "
05 / 1200 26.1 51.4 1014 20 "

I think 50.1 is supposed to be 51.1. If you don't believe me, plug those numbers onto a tracking map or software. I put 50.1 once and the final bit of the track looked really unreasonable. Also, look at Figure 1 in the report, which has what the best track looked like when plotted. It's very faint, but it definitely looks like before that last coordinate (at 51.4), there is only a tiny line going northwest to that point, thus the "50.1" should really say 51.1.

I know, I'm nit-picky....I couldn't help but notice it though!

-Andrew92

Scorpion · #89 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Dec 08, 2004 5:15 pm

Its going to take awhile for Frances because theyre trying to find out what exactly weakened her and what her landfall intensity was because there was alot of evidence hinting at 110 mph instead of 105. Ivan, well, you know the whole debate about him being a 3 or 2 at landfall.

Derek Ortt · #90 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Dec 08, 2004 6:13 pm

BT for frances is complete and the report should be available before Christmas.

Not sure when the Ivan report is going to be out quite yet as the landfall intensity is still being debated

Hyperstorm · #91 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Dec 08, 2004 6:50 pm

There's a few interesting things to point out about the report on Tropical Storm Otto:

1) The system became a subtropical storm on 1200 29 November or about 30 hours before it was operationally upgraded to a tropical storm.

2) It had peak intensity of 45kts (50mph) when it was considered a subtropical storm.

3) It became a tropical storm on 1200 30 November or about 6 hours before it was operationally classified as such.

4) The system was carried on as a tropical depression until 0600 3 December or about 18 hours after advisories were dropped operationally.

All of this is what I suspected would happen. The NHC is always behind when initiating advisories on transitioning cyclones as there is not a well-defined line to distinguish between them (extratropical/subtropical/tropical) and they try to play conservative. On the other hand, when a system is fairly close to land they upgrade TOO quickly. Can I name Grace? This is a big contrast and NEEDS to be addressed.

Also, this report throws out the idea of Otto being the first and only named cyclone to develop during the last day of the hurricane season.

#92 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Dec 08, 2004 6:59 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:There's a few interesting things to point out about the report on Tropical Storm Otto:

1) The system became a subtropical storm on 1200 29 November or about 30 hours before it was operationally upgraded to a tropical storm.

2) It had peak intensity of 45kts (50mph) when it was considered a subtropical storm.

3) It became a tropical storm on 1200 30 November or about 6 hours before it was operationally classified as such.

4) The system was carried on as a tropical depression until 0600 3 December or about 18 hours after advisories were dropped operationally.

All of this is what I suspected would happen. The NHC is always behind when initiating advisories on transitioning cyclones as there is not a well-defined line to distinguish between them (extratropical/subtropical/tropical) and they try to play conservative. On the other hand, when a system is fairly close to land they upgrade TOO quickly. Can I name Grace? This is a big contrast and NEEDS to be addressed.

Also, this report throws out the idea of Otto being the first and only named cyclone to develop during the last day of the hurricane season.

Yes as I said in threads and you too about the system being a sub or tropical storm many hours before finnally they did the upgrade.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #93 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 2:34 am

I say Otto becomed subtropical on around 1800z 28th. Becoming a tropical storm later on the 29th. But that is just my thinking.

#94 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Dec 11, 2004 7:29 am

Hurricane Alex Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004alex.shtml?

Tropical Storm Bonnie Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004bonnie.shtml?

Hurricane Charley Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?

Hurricane Danielle Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004danielle.shtml

Tropical Storm Earl Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004earl.shtml?

Hurricane Frances Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004frances.shtml?

Hurricane Gaston Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004gaston.shtml?

Tropical Storm Hermine Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004hermine.shtml?

Hurricane Ivan Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml

Tropical Depression Ten Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ten.shtml

Hurricane Jeanne Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004jeanne.shtml

Hurricane Karl Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004karl.shtml?

Hurricane Lisa Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004lisa.shtml

Tropical Storm Matthew Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004matthew.shtml?

SubTropical Storm Nicole Report

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004nicole.shtml

Tropical Storm Otto Report

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004otto.shtml?

Let's see if all of the 4 reports that are left to be issued are out before 2004 is out.Check every day this thread because at anytime one of those reports will be posted here as soon they come out.

#95 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:10 pm

The NHC has just issued the "Best Track" for the EPAC systems, Darby and Howard. The Atlantic continues to wait.

#96 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 2:56 pm

Karl out.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004karl.shtml?

#97 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 3:29 pm

Frances too.
http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/2004frances.shtml?

#98 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 5:15 pm

No real additional notes on Karl except that this report could have come out much sooner in my opinion.

But for Frances:

Seven direct deaths, 42 indirect
$9 billion is the best estimate for damage, not $8.86 billion
101 tornadoes
Heaviest rainfall was in Linville Falls, NC (18.07 inches)

Truly a horrible storm. Frances must have wanted to "deserve" to be retired.

-Andrew92

#99 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 5:59 pm

Now just waiting on Ivan and Nicole! Nicole's shouldn't take long, but the Ivan report is the one we are all waiting for. Will that one be out before 2005? We'll see.....

-Andrew92

#100 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:14 pm

BREAKING NEWS!!!

All of the reports are now up, with the Ivan and Nicole reports now up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004nicole.shtml

-Andrew92

Tropical Cyclone Reports for 2004 Atlantic season Thread

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