Some Otto remanants arrive at Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands

[cycloneye]

It is not out of the question that the remanant low that was Tropical Storm Otto if it moves very far to the south in latitud and then turn westward with the low level flow from the ridge to the north can make it to the NE Caribbean Sea.For the leeward islands,Virgin islands and Puerto Rico if they are visited the low has to dip to the 15n-18n latitud range.But no regeneration will occur as the shear will not let it get stronger than a remanant low.And also before that track towards the west gets established the low may dissipate completly so let's see what happens. If and is a big if at this point that low enters the NE Caribbean only scattered showers will spread thru the islands and nothing more.

[HURAKAN]

In any case, prepare another place in the table for "Noche Buena" in any case Otto's remnants reach the Antilles.

[Scorpion]

Wouldnt that be funny if the shear just stopped and Otto became a Cat 5?

[cycloneye]

Wouldnt that be funny if the shear just stopped and Otto became a Cat 5?

[cycloneye]

a typical weather pattern for this time of the year should prevail
across the local islands at least through monday. there will be
patches of clouds and embedded light to moderate showers alternating
with mostly sunny or mostly clear conditions. temperatures will run
near seasonal averages. showers are forecast to increase in coverage
by monday night into tuesday as an area of moisture ... still
lingering from the dissipated tropical storm otto ... approaches
from the northeast.

Well after all there comes some lingering remanants from Otto to Puerto Rico as discussion above from NWS in San Juan says.

[HUC]

You were right cycloneye!!!Good forecast...

[The Big Dog]

Wouldnt that be funny if the shear just stopped and Otto became a Cat 5?

I'll eat my keyboard if that happens.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well at least we can look for some evidence of a circulation as it approaches Puerto Rico though...

[Brent]

Wouldnt that be funny if the shear just stopped and Otto became a Cat 5?

I'll eat my keyboard if that happens.

I'll eat my house.

It will not happen folks.

[The Big Dog]

Wouldnt that be funny if the shear just stopped and Otto became a Cat 5?

I'll eat my keyboard if that happens.

I'll eat my house.

Is that easier than boarding it up?

[Brent]

Wouldnt that be funny if the shear just stopped and Otto became a Cat 5?

I'll eat my keyboard if that happens.

I'll eat my house.

Is that easier than boarding it up?

Yeah...

I'm 300 miles inland anyway.

[cycloneye]

Patches of clouds and some scattered showers some of the remanants left from Otto are passing thru the northern Caribbean Islands from today and will continue to linger thru wednesday as they haved elongated to cover a wide area.They are embedded with the flow from the ENE that the ridge to the north is causing.

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Finnaly some of the remanant patches of clouds and showers haved arrived at the NE caribbean this morning.This is by any means nothing of a big rain event like in the past month when over 10 inches fell in many spots of the island.Only light to moderate rain is expected in this period as the upper dynamics are not there for convection to grow more than 20,000 feet.

[cycloneye]

Only rainfall totals of just over 1 inch fell here on average yesterday as those first remanants moved thru.But more rain is instored for the NE caribbean in the comming days thanks to a new surface trough that formed from the back side remanants of Otto will move from the east by thursday night.This time more good upper divergence will cause clouds to grow more taller maybe to 35,000-40,000 feet causing more heavy rains and some thunderstorms embedded.

[msbee]

is this what you are talking about Luis?
I just saw this on stormcarib and wondered what it was.
It's coming our way then?
Barbara

[cycloneye]

Yes Barbara not all of that but some.

gfs model guidance continue to suggest a weak perturbation in the
easterlies to move across the area thursday night through friday.
this will therefore maintain intervals of clouds and showers across
the region at least through friday with the wettest conditions
expected late thursday through friday. drier weather conditions
can be expected friday night through saturday ... then more pockets of
moisture will move across the areas from time to time late saturday
night and sunday but no real deep layer moisture advection is
expected at this time.

[msbee]

after all the rain the islands had last month, this will be a piece of cake
no problem, mon!

Barbara

[cycloneye]

puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
630 am ast thu dec 9 2004

. discussion...
mid level anticyclone centered over the central bahamas will
continue to shift eastward next several days ... which will cause a
gradual abatement of the mid level subsidence dominating the region
the past several days. low to middle level flow is thus forecast to
become easterly late this afternoon through friday ... just in time
for the approach of a well defined low level vort center ... currently
along 58. 5 west ... moving westward around 20 knots. a break in the
recent mostly cloudy and showery weather of recent is expected today
in advance of this feature ... but with isolated to scattered
showers ... and more sunshine than past couple of days. low level vort
with accompanying surface trough is forecast by gfs to move into the
virgin islands early this evening and across p. r. overnight ... with a
trailing flow of ample moisture behind it friday and saturday.
widely scattered tstorms associated with this feature ... with tops
above 30k ft ... have been indicated overnight across the atlantic
well to our east ... occurring within upper trough axis east of the
aforementioned middle level high ... under a generally convergent
upper pattern not extremely conducive for deep convection. it would
not surprise me then to see isolated tstorms thu night and friday as
this low level disturbance moves through the area. we are
characterizing the weather associated with this vort as numerous
showers ... and sky cover should return to mostly cloudy ... but showers
may be more frequent and intermittent for periods across the usvi
and e and ne p. r.

a llvl wind surge will likely accompany the well defined disturbance
into the region tonight and friday to aid in producing squalls ... and
increasing seas. sca's will likely be required by friday as
increasing seas arrive behind the llvl vort ... friday night and
saturday. winds and seas are then forecast to diminish sunday as
high pressure weakens across the region in advance of a cold front
moving across the western atlantic and into the southeast bahamas.
small craft exercise caution today and tonight.

More rain comes to the NE caribbean from tonight but will not be a widespread rain event.