My outlook for the 2004 season faired well. On May 26, the outlook was:
ATLC: 18-15-08-04 (39% 5)
EPAC: 15-13-07-03 (19% 5)
Source: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=30850
The August 04th Update was:
ATLC: 18-15-08-04 (41% 5)
EPAC: 18-14-06-03 (19% 5)
Source: It was in my signature, but is also located in the signature on the weather.com message boards.
ATLANTIC REVIEW
The final numbers were:
16 Tropical Depressions
15 Named Storms
09 Hurricanes
06 Major Hurricanes
01 Category 5 Hurricane
The two outlooks were unchanged with the exception of the chance of a category 5 hurricane occurring, which was a well above average chance in my opinion. In terms of tropical depressions, I underestimated the ability of storms to strengthen further this season, which also occurred with my major hurricane probabilities. However, I did believe a large number of named storms would become hurricanes, and that there would be an above average number of major hurricanes.
(+/-)
05/26 Forecast
+2 Tropical Depressions
0 Tropical Storms
-1 Hurricane
-2 Major Hurricanes
Above Average Chance of Category 5 (0)
08/04 Forecast
+2 Tropical Depressions
0 Tropical Storms
-1 Hurricane
-2 Major Hurricanes
Above Average Chance of Category 5 (0)
Overall, the Numerical Outlooks are given:
May 26: A- (91.4)
August 04: B (87.3)
Overall: B+ (89.4)
My forecast in terms of U.S. strike probability faired quite well. Below is a list of U.S. strikes and zone definitions, with my probability forecasts.
Zone 2: TX/LA Border (Sabine Pass) to LA/MS Border (Pearl River).
Zone 3: LA/MS Border (Pearl River) to Suwannee River, FL.
Zone 4: Suwannee River, FL to Cape Sable, FL.
Zone 6: Homestead, FL to St. Augustine, FL.
Zone 8: Savannah, GA to Cape Hatteras, NC.
Zone 11: Newark, NJ to Cape Cod, MA.
ZONE 2 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 49% (Below Average)
HURRICANE: 42% (Below Average)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 30% (Average)
STRIKES: Tropical Storm IVAN, Tropical Storm MATTHEW.
GRADE: D+
ZONE 3 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 88% (Above Average)
HURRICANE: 78% (Above Average)
MAJOR HURRICANE 52% (Above Average)
STRIKES: Tropical Storm BONNIE, Tropical Storm FRANCES, Major Hurricane IVAN
GRADE: A
ZONE 4 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 82% (Above Average)
HURRICANE: 59% (Above Average)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 40% (Slightly Above Average)
STRIKES: Major Hurricane CHARLEY
GRADE: B
ZONE 6 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 75% (Above Average)
HURRICANE: 56% (Slightly Above Average)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 38% (Average)
STRIKES: Hurricane FRANCES, Major Hurricane JEANNE
GRADE: B-
ZONE 8 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 87% (Above Average)
HURRICANE: 64% (Above Average)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 35% (Slightly Below Average)
STRIKES: Hurricane ALEX, Hurricane GASTON
GRADE: A-
ZONE 11 PROBABILITIES AND LANDFALLS
TROPICAL STORM: 39% (Above Average)
HURRICANE: 21% (Average)
MAJOR HURRICANE: 10% (Average)
STRIKES: Tropical Storm HERMINE
GRADE: A-
The rest of the percentages faired well except with my Zone 1 (Texas Coast) Forecast in which I forecasted an above average chance for a Tropical Storm and an average for Hurricane. The worst forecast was apparently for Zone 2, where I did not expect much activity in the Western GOM. Overall The Probability Forecast is given an B+ (88.5%)
OVERALL ATLANTIC GRADE
The Forecast was quite well done, however there were some mistakes. The numerical average is weighted twice versus the Probability Average.
2004 ATLC Forecast Grade: B+ (89.1%)
EASTERN PACIFIC REVIEW
The final numbers were:
16 Tropical Depressions
12 Named Storms
06 Hurricanes
03 Major Hurricanes
00 Category 5 Storms
The two outlooks changed in that I increased tropical depression count by 3, increased named storm count by 1, and decreased the hurricane count by 1. I continue to improve my ability in forecasting Eastern Pacific seasons, where I have struggled in the past. I believed that the number of tropical depressions would be significantly greater than the number of named storms, which did occur, but to a greater extent, however I also believed that the named storm count would only be a little below normal, however it was moderately below. In terms of hurricanes, I initially believed that a number of named storms would become hurricanes, but later changed it to a more moderate percentage. However, I did constantly believe that there would be more major hurricanes this year than in seasons past, which did occur, including the fact that it was below average. I also consistently believed that there was a below average chance for a category 5 hurricane this year.
(+/-)
05/26 Forecast
-1 Tropical Depressions
+1 Tropical Storms
+1 Hurricane
0 Major Hurricanes
Below Average Chance of Category 5 (0)
08/04 Forecast
+2 Tropical Depressions
+2 Tropical Storms
0 Hurricane
0 Major Hurricanes
Below Average Chance of Category 5 (0)
Overall, the Eastern Pacific Outlooks are given:
May 26: A (92.4)
August 04: A- (91.6)
Overall: A (92.0)
OVERALL 2004 GRADE:
Surprisingly, I did better this year in the Eastern Pacific compared to the Atlantic, which has not happened before. I am proud that I am improving in the EPAC basin. However, I am disappointed that I did not see so many tropical depressions becoming named storms in the Atlantic, and the same for Hurricane to Major Hurricanes.....even though this year was a rare occurrence for that. The overall grade is an average of the two basins.
OVERALL GRADE:
90.55% (A-)
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SECTION II. OUTLOOK STATISTICS SINCE 2001 (ATLC) AND 2004 (EPAC)
Statistics Since 2001:
ATLANTIC
Actual/Averaged Forecast
2001:
Tropical Depressions: 17/18 (1)
Named Storms: 15/15 (0)
Hurricanes: 09/08 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 04/04 (0)
2002:
Tropical Depressions: 14/16 (2)
Named Storms: 12/15 (3)
Hurricanes: 04/07 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 02/04 (2)
2003:
Tropical Depressions: 21/19 (2)
Named Storms: 16/15 (1)
Hurricanes: 07/09 (2)
Major Hurricanes: 03/04 (1)
2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/18 (2)
Named Storms: 15/15 (0)
Hurricanes: 09/08 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 06/04 (2)
AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 1.75
Named Storms: +/- 1.00
Hurricanes: +/- 1.75
Major Hurricanes: +/- 1.25
Standards: I take the absolute value of the missed number of depressions, storms, hurricane, and major hurricanes, and average each category.
EASTERN PACIFIC
Eastern Pacific Averages will begin with 2004. I do not recall any averages from 2001-2003, so I will save these averages for future use.
2004:
Tropical Depressions: 16/17 (1)
Named Storms: 12/14 (2)
Hurricanes: 06/07 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 03/03 (0)
AVERAGE NUMBERS:
Tropical Depressions: +/- 1.00
Named Storms: +/- 2.00
Hurricanes: +/- 1.00
Major Hurricanes: +/- 0.00
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SECTION III. PRELIMINARY 2005 OUTLOOK
For right now, it appears that we will see a somewhat similar season to 2000 or 1999 (in ATLC numbers). ENSO appears to be neutral, coming back from a weak El Nino event. QBO winds, however, will be significantly out of the east. MJO will still vary. ATHC will still be warm. With this, I issue my preliminary forecast for 2005 for both basins:
ATLANTIC BASIN 2005 OUTLOOK
15 Tropical Depressions
13 Named Storms
06 Hurricanes
03 Major Hurricanes
17% Chance of a Category 5
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN 2005 OUTLOOK
15 Tropical Depressions
14 Named Storms
07 Hurricanes
03 Major Hurricanes
30% Chance of a Category 5
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN NOTE
I have ended all Central Pacific Basin Outlooks, however I will issue occasional notes on the basin. Right now, since there appears to be a Weak El Nino event coming back from the basin, the 2005 season will most likely be average to above average with at least 3-4 storms occurring within the basin either forming or entering, with a chance of at least 1-2 hurricanes.
***END, See everyone on the tropical board in 2005!
