Stick a fork on Otto

[cycloneye]

It was a little bonus for the epilog of the extended very active 2004 season.By friday Otto will be history as a remanant low as shear is tearing apart the system by having the center exposed.By the 4 PM advisory it will be down to 40 mph,then tonight or tommorow morning to a TD and tommorow night rip.

[HurricaneGirl]

So Long Otto!

[Josephine96]

Oh well.. The OT of hurricane season was good while it lasted

[cycloneye]

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004

OTTO IS HANGING ON AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MEAGER AND IS CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. BECAUSE THE STORM IS NEAR THE
AXIS OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD BRING
ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. SO...EVEN
THOUGH OTTO IS MOVING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...145/5. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR OTTO...TO
THE EAST OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL
SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 30.7N 49.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 30.0N 49.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 29.2N 48.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 28.3N 48.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 27.4N 47.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 04/1800Z 26.0N 45.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1800Z 25.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[HURAKAN]

WAS NICE TO SEE YOU, OTTO!!!! NOTHING IS FOREVER!!!!

[corpusbreeze]

I give Otto one more day before the last nail.

[Wnghs2007]

Oh well.. The OT of hurricane season was good while it lasted

Hey who knows with the pattern we are in right now there might be just 1 more left out there...Nahhhh...

[Wnghs2007]

I give Otto one more day before the last nail.

Yes I also Believe that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Otto looks as good as ever. Convection is now over the LLC with banding forming. This really doe's look like a tropical storm now.

[Wnghs2007]

Otto looks as good as ever. Convection is now over the LLC with banding forming. This really doe's look like a tropical storm now.

I agree it does look pretty good. Altough the convection looks weakish.

[cycloneye]

Otto looks as good as ever. Convection is now over the LLC with banding forming. This really doe's look like a tropical storm now.

Center is exposed to the west of the convection.Shear is increasing now removing the weak convection well away from the center.Post mortem for Otto.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 49.9W AT 01/2100 UTC
MOVING SE 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 999 MB.
SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OTTO IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY WITH LESS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND CONVECTION
REMOVED A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER. NW SHEAR HAS
INCREASED A BIT NEAR THE CYCLONE... FORCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER TO BE LIMITED TO THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE STORM.

The above is from the discussion this evening.Confirms what I said at my first post here this afternoon.Rip to Otto.

[tronbunny]

RIP Atlantic Tropical Season 2004.
Can't wait to put flowers on that headstone.
Just waitng for Otto's last breath.

[Scorpion]

Sad to see hurricane season go. Only 181 days til June 1st !!

[*Chris*]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020228
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...A 01/2158Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT OTTO HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTAINING SEVERAL 30-35 KT UN-FLAGGED WINDS.
DRIFTING BUOY 44623 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
997.5 MB AT 00Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM
TAFB AND THE 35-KT QUIKSCAT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CENTRAL
PRESSURE SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 150/06. THE LATEST
NHC MODEL SUITE IS QUITE DIVERGENT. THE UKMET IS THE LEFTMOST MODEL
AND TAKES OTTO DUE EAST WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE RIGHTMOST OF
ALL THE MODELS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DUE SOUTH. HOWEVER...
ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW FORWARD SPEED. AS THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
...WEAK 500 MB RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF OTTO. THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH SHOULD
HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AND HELP TO DRAG IT IN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE 850-200 MB SHEAR TO 35 KT BY
36H AND DISSIPATES OTTO BY 48-60H. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OTTO
ORIGINATED FROM A COLD-CORE LOW AND LIKELY DOES NOT EXTEND TO THE
200 MB LEVEL...THE SHIPS SHEAR VALUES MAY BE EXCESSIVE..GIVEN THAT
THE 300 MB WIND ACROSS OTTO IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 KT LESS THAN
AT THE 200 MB LEVEL. SINCE OTTO IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
GRADUALLY WARMER WATER...THE INTENSITY WAS HELD HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 30.2N 49.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 29.6N 49.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 28.8N 48.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 27.8N 47.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.0N 47.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 05/0000Z 25.5N 46.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/0000Z 24.0N 46.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$

[*Chris*]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020229
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004

...TROPICAL STORM OTTO MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 905 MILES...1455 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.

OTTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. OTTO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...30.2 N... 49.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 AM EST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[*Chris*]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020228
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...A 01/2158Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT OTTO HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTAINING SEVERAL 30-35 KT UN-FLAGGED WINDS.
DRIFTING BUOY 44623 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
997.5 MB AT 00Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM
TAFB AND THE 35-KT QUIKSCAT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CENTRAL
PRESSURE SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 150/06. THE LATEST
NHC MODEL SUITE IS QUITE DIVERGENT. THE UKMET IS THE LEFTMOST MODEL
AND TAKES OTTO DUE EAST WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE RIGHTMOST OF
ALL THE MODELS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DUE SOUTH. HOWEVER...
ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW FORWARD SPEED. AS THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
...WEAK 500 MB RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF OTTO. THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH SHOULD
HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AND HELP TO DRAG IT IN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE 850-200 MB SHEAR TO 35 KT BY
36H AND DISSIPATES OTTO BY 48-60H. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OTTO
ORIGINATED FROM A COLD-CORE LOW AND LIKELY DOES NOT EXTEND TO THE
200 MB LEVEL...THE SHIPS SHEAR VALUES MAY BE EXCESSIVE..GIVEN THAT
THE 300 MB WIND ACROSS OTTO IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 KT LESS THAN
AT THE 200 MB LEVEL. SINCE OTTO IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
GRADUALLY WARMER WATER...THE INTENSITY WAS HELD HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 30.2N 49.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 29.6N 49.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 28.8N 48.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 27.8N 47.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.0N 47.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 05/0000Z 25.5N 46.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 06/0000Z 24.0N 46.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$

Looks a little more favorable than the previous discussion. Pressure back down...Otto moving over warmer waters, ect.

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 020810
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU DEC 02 2004

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND VERTICAL DEPTH NEAR THE CENTER AND IS NOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...DRIFTING BUOY 44623 NEAR THE CENTER
OF OTTO INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND WAS
995.7 MB AT 05Z. BASED ON THE LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 180/05. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS
DIVERGENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS THE LEFTMOST MODEL AND
TAKES OTTO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFDL MODEL IS NOW THE
RIGHTMOST MODEL AND MOVES OTTO SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS
AGREE ON WEAK RIDGING CONTINUING TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF OTTO...
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE LOSING LATITUDE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
CLOSE TO THE CONU AND GUNS CONSENSUS MODELS.

MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OTTO...EVEN THOUGH CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DRY OUT
EVEN MORE. AS SUCH...OTTO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER 25-26C SST WATERS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 29.8N 49.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 29.0N 49.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 27.9N 49.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 26.8N 48.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 04/0600Z 25.9N 48.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 05/0600Z 24.7N 48.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/0600Z 23.5N 48.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED


The fork is ready to slam Otto today.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OTTO (AL162004) ON 20041202 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041202 1200 041203 0000 041203 1200 041204 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.1N 50.6W 28.0N 49.9W 26.7N 47.7W 25.4N 44.9W
BAMM 29.1N 50.6W 28.3N 50.2W 27.1N 49.2W 26.0N 48.0W
A98E 29.1N 50.6W 27.8N 51.2W 26.4N 50.8W 25.5N 49.4W
LBAR 29.1N 50.6W 28.6N 49.5W 28.3N 47.6W 27.8N 45.3W
SHIP 30KTS 27KTS 25KTS 21KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 25KTS 21KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041204 1200 041205 1200 041206 1200 041207 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.1N 42.5W 21.4N 41.6W 19.3N 42.7W 19.9N 42.8W
BAMM 24.7N 47.1W 22.5N 48.5W 21.5N 50.6W 20.5N 52.0W
A98E 24.7N 48.2W 22.5N 46.6W 20.9N 45.9W 21.0N 45.6W
LBAR 27.7N 42.3W 28.7N 39.0W 30.8N 36.8W 33.6N 32.8W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.1N LONCUR = 50.6W DIRCUR = 200DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 49.9W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 31.6N LONM24 = 50.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



It made history as the first storm ever to form on the last day of the atlantic season but it's over for him.A nice bonus for a very active 2004 season.

[The Big Dog]

<i>(... a tropical storm warning has been issued for the Florida east coast from...)</i>