Tropical storm Otto forecast

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical storm Otto
Forecast 6
4pm pst/7pm est
12-1-2004

Winds 40 mph
Gust 50 mph
Pressure 1000
Centered 30.3/50.1
Movement South-Southeastward


..........

...Troical storm Otto is moving south-southeast over the central north Atlatnic...

The last 24 hour history of Otto...
Yesterday at 4pm est the nhc, started Advisories on troical storm Otto. The system was put at 45 mph, with 997 millibar pressure. At the 4am Advisorie on 12-1-2004. A ship report found the pressure to be down to around 995 millibars...With winds of 45 to 50 mph some ways away from the systems center. The nhc put the systems pressure at 993 millibars...Yesterday evening a mid cirualtion/Mid level eye/twist formed. But was torn to the south of the exposed cirulation. This morning the systems convection was being sheared off to the south...With it weaking...

Current look at the system...

As of this time the system appears to have reformed deeper convection over it's cirualtion center. In to tell you the truth it is more in line as ever at this time. This mornings decrease in over all convection weaken the cyclone to 1000 millibars///

The system is currently moving to the south-southeast in once south of 30 north the seasurface temperatures rise into the mid 70s from the upper 60s lower 70s...Which might be the reason for the blow up in over all convection.


Future over the next 24 to 36 hours...

Over this time period water vapor shows that dry air is starting to move into the northwestern quad. Plus the upper level wind shear is going to go from 15 knots to nearly 30 knots . But if the system can keep moving south or southeast...But if the system keeps moving more south the chances of it moving into warmer water is better. With its chances of out running the upper level wind shear. All the hurricane models show for this period a south to a east-southeast movement. Because of the system moving south currently a movment more to the south/right of the movement seems more likely. The Gfdl/Cmc shows more of a east-southeast(0 to 24 hours) then a south or southeast movement(24 to 36 hours).

36 to 72 hours...

If the system moves south. In stays away from the 50 to 60 knot shear away from 45 west below 25 north. A south movement would allow this sytem to have a favable enough enviroment for it to hold its own. With the warmer waters. I'm going to forecast close to the nhc track at this time. But slightly to the south/right with sightly to the west...

How strong?

We are forecasting this system to hold its own for the next 24 hours. With a slight decrease to a strong depression through out 36 hours. Right now we will not kill off the system. A little side note is if it where to escape strong shear. With moving to the southwest later on. Then this system would have a good chance of regaining tropical storm if so.


Wind forecast
0 40 mph
6 40 mph
12 40 mph
24 35 mph
36 35 mph
48 35 mph
Gone
Gone
Gone


Forecaster Matthew

[Wnghs2007]

Wow thanks for the forecast Matt.

[george_r_1961]

I agree that with the southward component if the track its a bit early to kill off Otto. I expect a minimal TS for the next 24 hours...although it may weaken to a TD.