http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
The latest models for ENSO are forecasting a neutral status for it by the time the 2005 hurricane season starts.If this neutral phase verifies the season will not be capped by this factor.
No el nino for 2005 hurricane season
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cycloneye
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No el nino for 2005 hurricane season
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cycloneye
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nikolai wrote:I think I saw a NASA model earlier this year and it had a roaring el-nino next year....
That Nasa model now has neutral conditions all the way until July 2005.
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Stormsfury
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nikolai wrote:I think I saw a NASA model earlier this year and it had a roaring el-nino next year....
NASA/NCEP modelings are generally El Niño biased ... at last check, most of the ENSO model guidance do not suggest that a roaring El Niño is on the way, and also, the long term PDO cyclings wouldn't suggest that a significant El Niño should be in the works ... the signals simply IMHO aren't strong enough.
SF
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HurricaneBill
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cycloneye
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HurricaneBill wrote:I read somewhere that the next major El Nino (like 1982-83 and 1997-98) will occur sometime between 2010-2013.
Try to find a link to that because I know many including me will be interested to read about it.
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MGC
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As I recall, didn't most models not forecast the weak El Nino that is currently happening? As such, I don't place any faith in the models that forecast such large global weather patterns. But, as I stated in an earlier post, I expect neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific next hurricane season......MGC
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Wnghs2007
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MGC wrote:As I recall, didn't most models not forecast the weak El Nino that is currently happening? As such, I don't place any faith in the models that forecast such large global weather patterns. But, as I stated in an earlier post, I expect neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific next hurricane season......MGC
I dont know. I thought it was because most people included it into there winter discussions.
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Anonymous
Interesting how much a yawner the weak El Nino was/is.
I do so wonder wht next hurricane season brings.
Has anyone noted the current Gulf and Atlantic SSTs?
They are warmer than last year, aren't they.
With a neutral ENSO, we may see a worse season coming, because it's possible the weak one may have provided some suppression.
Just my musings.
Oh, I still pity the Pacific and Japan especially this year. I can only hope they get a reprieve next year.
Just when we in Florida had it bad, I review Japan's plight.
I do so wonder wht next hurricane season brings.
Has anyone noted the current Gulf and Atlantic SSTs?
They are warmer than last year, aren't they.
With a neutral ENSO, we may see a worse season coming, because it's possible the weak one may have provided some suppression.
Just my musings.
Oh, I still pity the Pacific and Japan especially this year. I can only hope they get a reprieve next year.
Just when we in Florida had it bad, I review Japan's plight.
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cycloneye
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tronbunny wrote:Interesting how much a yawner the weak El Nino was/is.
I do so wonder wht next hurricane season brings.
Has anyone noted the current Gulf and Atlantic SSTs?
They are warmer than last year, aren't they.
With a neutral ENSO, we may see a worse season coming, because it's possible the weak one may have provided some suppression.
Just my musings.
Oh, I still pity the Pacific and Japan especially this year. I can only hope they get a reprieve next year.
Just when we in Florida had it bad, I review Japan's plight.
What I can say with great confidence is that we will see less major canes I say 3 not the 6 that formed this season because of an east QBO winds not too favorable for hurricanes to grow into majors.
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MGC
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Yes, 2004 was an aberation in terms of major hurricanes in the Atl basin. I'd bet there is a near 100% chance that there will not be 6 or more majors in 2005. SST in never an issue as the Atl basin is always warm enough during the meat of the season to support a major. ULW are the limiting factor when majors are concerned......MGC
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Stormsfury
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MGC wrote:As I recall, didn't most models not forecast the weak El Nino that is currently happening? As such, I don't place any faith in the models that forecast such large global weather patterns. But, as I stated in an earlier post, I expect neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific next hurricane season......MGC
About half (50-60%) of the global SSTA model progs had gone with a warm ENSO prog, although the NCEP modeling was aggressively too warm ...
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Stormsfury
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MGC wrote:Yes, 2004 was an aberation in terms of major hurricanes in the Atl basin. I'd bet there is a near 100% chance that there will not be 6 or more majors in 2005. SST in never an issue as the Atl basin is always warm enough during the meat of the season to support a major. ULW are the limiting factor when majors are concerned......MGC
Completely agree ... my prelim and final outlooks were spot on in regards to better organized, and truer, deeper latitude systems. My hurricane numbers themselves were good (the percentage ratio of the # of hurricanes I progged was excellent, but I completely contradicted myself by not increasing the major hurricane progs from the 3 back in December 2003, and May 2004) ...
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cycloneye wrote:What I can say with great confidence is that we will see less major canes I say 3 not the 6 that formed this season because of an east QBO winds not too favorable for hurricanes to grow into majors.
That's kind of what i'd thought.
But I've been hedging because this year has taught me to never say never.
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