Nanmadol

[Wnghs2007]

Gosh. I was hoping something would make it turn

[cycloneye]

Sadly once again Luzon is going to be hit by a cyclone. The latest forecast track shows a direct hit as a cat 3 or 4 to Luzon.

[Wnghs2007]

Sadly once again Luzon is going to be hit by a cyclone. The latest forecast track shows a direct hit as a cat 3 or 4 to Luzon.

Hopefully it will not be as strong as it could be when it hits. They dont need these storms with the Bird Flu Epidemic about to hit.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 11.6N8 132.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N8 132.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 13.1N5 128.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 14.5N0 125.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 15.6N2 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 16.9N6 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 20.9N1 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 25.9N6 124.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 30.5N8 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.0N3 131.8E3.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 292330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z0, 011500Z7, 012100Z4 AND 020300Z5.//



Very sadly I say that Luzon will get a strong cat 4 typhoon.

[Wnghs2007]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 11.6N8 132.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N8 132.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 13.1N5 128.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 14.5N0 125.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 15.6N2 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 16.9N6 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 20.9N1 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 25.9N6 124.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 30.5N8 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.0N3 131.8E3.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 292330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z0, 011500Z7, 012100Z4 AND 020300Z5.//



Very sadly I say that Luzon will get a strong cat 4 typhoon.

Awwwww. Lets hope it does not get stronger than that.

[Derecho]

I have to say I suspect the intensity at 0300Z was wildly underestimated by JTWC and SSD.

SSD had a T of 6.0, and JTWC had it at 105 kts.

Looking at Sat now at 5Z I find it hard to believe it's not 130 kts+

[HurricaneBill]

Well, if there's anything good to say, it's that Luzon still has a good amount of forest on it. Hopefully, it'll be able to withstand the floodings rain of Nanmadol.

[Gorky]

115kt at the last update. No change on course either. The eye is looking a little less organised than a few hours ago, but that may only be temporary.

WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 12.4N7 130.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N7 130.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 14.0N5 126.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.4N0 122.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.5N2 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 17.8N6 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 21.2N5 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 26.5N3 125.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 32.1N6 135.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.8N1 129.4E6.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARN-
ING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 27 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7,
012100Z4, 020300Z5 AND 020900Z1.//

[Scorpion]

Ive got a question about their naming system. Is it in alphabetical order? Because I could have sworn we just got Nock-Ten, and then there was Muifa? And now another N storm? Whats up with the order?

[Gorky]

They don't use alphabetical ordering. Each country in the Pacific picks a few names and they go through each country and use their 1st naems for one cycle, then their second choice names. At the start of a year, they carry on from where they left off at the end of the previous. They regularly go over 26 storms a year, so alphabetically isn't a good system really

[Gorky]

Latest JTWC report puts it at 125kt as forecast

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 13.1N5 128.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N5 128.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 14.5N0 125.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 15.8N4 121.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 17.1N9 119.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 18.7N6 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 23.0N5 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 31.1N5 132.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.4N8 127.8E8.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 011130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4,
020300Z5, 020900Z1 AND 021500Z8.//

[Aslkahuna]

There are 28 names on each lists of names with two from each of 14 WPAC area Countries (including the US) on each list. The names, unlike other regions, are generally not People Names but are nature related terms and names-this is because Proper names in some Countries are few. PAGASA has its own list of names it uses for Public warnings in the Philippine AOR and these are all proper names-mainly in Filipino dialects which were submitted by the general Public over there and the list names selected by PAGASA from the submissions. Even my dog's name-Zigzag is on one of PAGASA's lists.

About those forests on Luzon, they have been seriously overlogged and are no longer capable of handling heavy rains from typhoons. Some of those landslides and floods from the recent disturbances were the direct result of illegal logging operations denuding the slopes. To add to the misery, In Pampanga, Zambales, Tarlac and Bulacan Provinces there's also the still present risk of lahars from Pinatubo should that area receive heavy rains-a risk that will continue to exist for some time to come.

Steve

[P.K.]

Even my dog's name-Zigzag is on one of PAGASA's lists.

Not looking good for the area this typhoon is heading towards

[HurricaneBill]

Is Pinatubo still active? When was its most recent eruption?

While Pinatubo was erupting, the Category 1 Typhoon Yunya moved over the area and the ash was mixed into the circulation. This caused the ash to mix with the rain and spread all over the area.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 13.7N1 126.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 126.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.0N6 123.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.5N2 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 17.9N7 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 19.3N3 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 25.0N7 124.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 30.0N3 137.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.0N5 126.1E0.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5, 020900Z1, 021500Z8 AND 022100Z5.

Now down a little bit 120kts.

[Wnghs2007]

Is Pinatubo still active? When was its most recent eruption?

While Pinatubo was erupting, the Category 1 Typhoon Yunya moved over the area and the ash was mixed into the circulation. This caused the ash to mix with the rain and spread all over the area.

That sounds like That had to suck...

[Wnghs2007]

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 13.7N1 126.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 126.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.0N6 123.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.5N2 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 17.9N7 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 19.3N3 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 25.0N7 124.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 30.0N3 137.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.0N5 126.1E0.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5, 020900Z1, 021500Z8 AND 022100Z5.

Now down a little bit 120kts.

Has it hit Luzon...Or is it still forecasted to ?

[HURAKAN]

Wnghs2007, it will make landfall in the next 24 hours. Fortunately, if there's good news, the storm is moving at around 23 mph.

[Wnghs2007]

Wnghs2007, it will make landfall in the next 24 hours. Fortunately, if there's good news, the storm is moving at around 23 mph.

Yes, that is good news as hopefully flooding will not be as widespread as say if it were moving 5 mph.

[HurricaneBill]

I have a bad feeling about this. The Philippines are probably going to face their worst disaster since Super Typhoon Angela in 1995.