Advisory #1 on Tropical Storm Otto

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Otto Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 4:00 PM EST on November 30, 2004


...Tropical storm forms on last day of hurricane season...
Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system over the central Atlantic has acquired the
characteristics of a tropical storm.
At 4 PM EST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Otto was located
near latitude 31.8 north...longitude 51.0 west or about 810
miles...1300 km... east of Bermuda.

Otto is moving toward the north near 5 mph ... 7 km/hr...and a turn
to the northeast is later tonight or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
...370 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.
Repeating the 4 PM EST position...31.8 N... 51.0 W. Movement
toward...north near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 PM EST.

Forecaster Pasch



A nice bonus storm.

[Lindaloo]

I agree Luis! An unexpected bonus.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

072
WTNT41 KNHC 302029
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED...AND SHIP
REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL
SOMEWHAT BROAD. HOWEVER MICROWAVE DATA AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES
FROM THE FSU/PSU WEB PAGE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE.
THUS THE CYCLONE HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO JUSTIFY THE
ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. THE STORM IS
OVER RATHER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN LATER IN THE PERIOD.

CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD AROUND 4 KT. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION TO DEVELOP SOON. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS AND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 31.8N 51.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 32.2N 50.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 32.0N 50.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 31.5N 49.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 48.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 31.0N 46.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 31.0N 45.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 43.0W 20 KT

[Wnghs2007]

Could this storm have any effect on the weather pattern? Like Throw something loopy and make a pattern chage?

[Wnghs2007]

072
WTNT41 KNHC 302029
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED...AND SHIP
REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL
SOMEWHAT BROAD. HOWEVER MICROWAVE DATA AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES
FROM THE FSU/PSU WEB PAGE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE.
THUS THE CYCLONE HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO JUSTIFY THE
ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. THE STORM IS
OVER RATHER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN LATER IN THE PERIOD.

CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD AROUND 4 KT. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION TO DEVELOP SOON. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS AND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 31.8N 51.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 32.2N 50.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 32.0N 50.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 31.5N 49.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 48.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 31.0N 46.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 31.0N 45.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 43.0W 20 KT

Well I think it may have some time to strengthen but that oppurtunity is closing quickly with some dryer air I feel.

[cycloneye]

Grafic for Otto.Fish bonus storm. [/b]

[GalvestonDuck]

Cool!

[Canelaw99]

Too funny - guess Otto didn't want to be left out this season

[Wnghs2007]

Grafic for Otto.Fish bonus storm. [/b]

Maybe it can go over and break down the Extreme W. European ridge that is correlated with a strong SE US RIDGE...Bring on the snow.