Nanmadol

[cycloneye]

The first advisory will be issued soon.Looks very good on sat pics.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks very good. But the nrl says 20 knots that is pretty weak if they are going to start it like that.

[HURAKAN]

It looks excellent in sat, very ramified spiral bands.

[cycloneye]

REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251Z NOV 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 282100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 6.1N7 149.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.1N7 149.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 7.1N8 146.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 8.2N0 143.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 9.2N1 140.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 10.2N3 137.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 12.1N4 130.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 6.4N0 148.6E9.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.


THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 280251Z
NOV 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 280300 )
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4, 290900Z0, 291500Z7 AND 292100Z4.






Warning #1 for TD 30w.

[Gorky]

The Philippines really don't need another storm. After Muifa, and Merbok left over 160 dead or missing. They are now being further drenched by TD Winnie in the already saturated North Luzon. This TD appears to be stalling in a similar way to Muifa too. It doen't appear to have moved much at all today. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas have had over 50 inches of rain from the 3 storms in less than 2 weeks

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
1. TROPICAL STORM 30W WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 6.3N9 147.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.3N9 147.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 7.3N0 145.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 8.5N3 142.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 9.4N3 139.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 10.3N4 135.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 12.1N4 129.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 14.2N7 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 18.0N9 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 6.6N2 147.2E4.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS XX FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0, 291500Z7, 292100Z4 AND 300300Z6.

What a name Nanmadol.

[HurricaneBill]

The Philippines really don't need another storm. After Muifa, and Merbok left over 160 dead or missing. They are now being further drenched by TD Winnie in the already saturated North Luzon. This TD appears to be stalling in a similar way to Muifa too. It doen't appear to have moved much at all today. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas have had over 50 inches of rain from the 3 storms in less than 2 weeks

Unfortunately, around this time of year, devastating typhoons that hit the Philippines tend to strike in pairs.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 6.6N2 146.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N2 146.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 7.6N3 143.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 8.6N4 141.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 9.4N3 137.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 10.4N5 134.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 12.3N6 128.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 15.2N8 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.3N3 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 6.9N5 145.7E7.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 290530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE AND
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC. ADDITIONALLY,
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z7 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION

Luzon once again is the target of another cyclone.

[Gorky]

Nanmadol is now typhoon strength, still forecast to hit Northern Luzon in 3 days

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 30W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 7.1N8 144.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1N8 144.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 8.0N8 141.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 8.8N6 138.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 9.7N6 135.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 10.7N8 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 13.1N5 125.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 16.5N2 122.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 20.7N9 121.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 7.3N0 143.8E6.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTH-
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 55, AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY LARGE AND
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AS WELL AS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW IN
ALL DIRECTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, INFRARED IMAGERY IS INDICATING A WARM
REGION WHICH IS POSSIBLY AN INDICATION OF EYE FORMATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4,
300300Z6, 300900Z2 AND 301500Z9.//

[Gorky]

The JTWC have also noticed TD Winnie (PAGASA name) and given a TC development warning for it. Considering it's been sat over the Philippines for the last 2 days causing major life threatening floods I personally feel this is way too late. As a result, the names the 2 organisation give will be out of sync for these two storms as PAGASA named Winnie before Nanmodal

[cycloneye]

It is now a typhoon and Luzon once again is on the track of another typhoon.

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 30W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 7.1N8 144.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1N8 144.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 8.0N8 141.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 8.8N6 138.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 9.7N6 135.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 10.7N8 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 13.1N5 125.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 16.5N2 122.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 20.7N9 121.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 7.3N0 143.8E6.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTH-
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 55, AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY LARGE AND
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AS WELL AS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW IN
ALL DIRECTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, INFRARED IMAGERY IS INDICATING A WARM
REGION WHICH IS POSSIBLY AN INDICATION OF EYE FORMATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4,
300300Z6, 300900Z2 AND 301500Z9.//

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 7.6N3 143.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N3 143.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 8.6N4 140.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 9.8N7 136.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 10.8N9 133.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 11.7N9 129.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 13.9N3 123.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 17.4N2 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 22.1N5 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 7.9N6 142.4E1.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 291730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55, 65, AND 77 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED
INFRARED AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND A VERY LARGE, SYMMETRIC
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z0 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6,
300900Z2, 301500Z9 AND 302100Z6.//


Luzon will see a strong typhoon making landfall there.

[Wnghs2007]

Man that really sucks. These poor Island countries are just basically defensless against these things from hitting them. Atleast the Atlantic is not large enough YET to produce year round Systems.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 8.5N3 141.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N3 141.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 9.6N5 137.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 10.6N7 134.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 11.6N8 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 12.7N0 127.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 15.5N1 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 19.7N7 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 23.9N4 123.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 8.8N6 140.2E7.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 292330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55, 65, AND 77 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z3 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2, 301500Z9,
302100Z6 AND 010300Z4.//


WARNING #6 has the typhoon at 75kt.

[Wnghs2007]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- NEAR 8.5N3 141.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N3 141.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 9.6N5 137.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 10.6N7 134.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 11.6N8 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 12.7N0 127.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 15.5N1 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 19.7N7 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 23.9N4 123.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 8.8N6 140.2E7.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 292330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55, 65, AND 77 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z3 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2, 301500Z9,
302100Z6 AND 010300Z4.//


WARNING #6 has the typhoon at 75kt.

Getting pretty strong thanks for the update.

[cycloneye]

[Gorky]

Looks like a tiny eye has formed. Either that or it's a speck of dirt on my monitor



Edit now I look like a fool. Just noticed that 'eye' is actually Yap

[cycloneye]

It will pass very close to the island of Yap.

[cycloneye]

995
wtpn31 pgtw 301500
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Typhoon 30w (Nanmadol) warning nr 008
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
301200z6 --- near 10.0n1 137.0e1
movement past six hours - 285 degrees at 22 kts
position accurate to within 040 nm
position based on center located by a combination of
satellite and synoptic data
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 085 kt, gusts 105 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
020 nm southeast quadrant
020 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
050 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
130 nm southeast quadrant
over water
160 nm southwest quadrant
150 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 10.0n1 137.0e1
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
010000z1 --- 11.3n5 133.1e8
Max sustained winds - 095 kt, gusts 115 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 020 nm
radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
050 nm southeast quadrant
050 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 145 nm northeast quadrant
135 nm southeast quadrant
145 nm southwest quadrant
145 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 290 deg/ 18 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
011200z4 --- 12.6n9 129.6e8
Max sustained winds - 105 kt, gusts 130 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 020 nm
radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm
radius of 034 kt winds - 155 nm northeast quadrant
135 nm southeast quadrant
135 nm southwest quadrant
155 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 290 deg/ 17 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
020000z2 --- 13.7n1 126.3e2
Max sustained winds - 120 kt, gusts 145 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 025 nm
radius of 050 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
065 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 165 nm northeast quadrant
145 nm southeast quadrant
125 nm southwest quadrant
over water
165 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 290 deg/ 16 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
021200z5 --- 14.8n3 123.2e8
Max sustained winds - 110 kt, gusts 135 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm
radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
over water
070 nm southwest quadrant
over water
070 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 150 nm northeast quadrant
130 nm southeast quadrant
over water
130 nm southwest quadrant
over water
130 nm northwest quadrant
over water
vector to 72 hr posit: 300 deg/ 13 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
031200z6 --- 17.6n4 118.4e4
Max sustained winds - 095 kt, gusts 115 kt
radius of 064 kt winds - 040 nm
radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
over water
130 nm southeast quadrant
over water
130 nm southwest quadrant
130 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 96 hr posit: 005 deg/ 08 kts
---
long range outlook:
note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 350 nm on day 5... and for intensity
near 20 kt each day.
---
96 hrs, valid at:
041200z7 --- 20.9n1 118.6e6
Max sustained winds - 080 kt, gusts 100 kt
vector to 120 hr posit: 055 deg/ 14 kts
---
120 hrs, valid at:
051200z8 --- 24.1n7 123.6e2
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
becoming extratropical
---
remarks:
301500z9 position near 10.3n4 136.0e0.
Typhoon (TY) 30w (Nanmadol), located approximately 75 nm
west-northwest of Yap, has tracked west-northwestward at
22 knots over the past 06 hours. The warning position is
based on 301130z8 enhanced infrared satellite imagery. The
warning intensity is based on satellite current intensity
estimates of 77 and 90 knots. Maximum significant wave
height at 301200z6 is 23 feet. Refer to wwpw31 phnc for
additional sea height information. Next warnings at 302100z6,
010300z4, 010900z0 and 011500z7.//

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 30W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 10.6N7 135.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N7 135.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 12.1N4 131.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 13.4N8 127.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 14.6N1 124.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.0N7 121.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 18.9N8 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 22.3N7 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 24.8N4 125.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.0N2 134.1E9.
TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 301730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301800Z2 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4, 010900Z0,
011500Z7 AND 012100Z4.//


It is a cat 2 typhoon and sadly the forecast track has it making landfall at Luzon as a cat 3-4 range.