Will 93L be named Otto Today?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 5:57 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301022
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES...SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES MAY BE
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD MONITOR THIS GALE CENTER IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/COBB/LAWRENCE

No more waiting from NHC.They wanted to make sure that the convection persists over the center and they have that this morning.

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 5:58 am

All important line is this though... "IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES." I forsee a STS, just a hunch IMO.

#3 Postby **george_r_1961** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:00 am

Yea Luis they could have started at 5am..or even last night..but I am certain we will have Otto later this morning. Thankfully there is no threat to land.

yoda · #4 Postby **yoda** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:06 am

Wouldn't this be a rarity? I am not into the hurricane facet part of the weather... but wasn't there something about this is one of a few (less than 50)storm to form/or be around in December?

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:08 am

yoda wrote:Wouldn't this be a rarity? I am not into the hurricane facet part of the weather... but wasn't there something about this is one of a few (less than 50)storm to form/or be around in December?

The last storm that formed in December was Peter last year.

yoda · #6 Postby **yoda** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:11 am

cycloneye wrote:
yoda wrote:Wouldn't this be a rarity? I am not into the hurricane facet part of the weather... but wasn't there something about this is one of a few (less than 50)storm to form/or be around in December?

The last storm that formed in December was Peter last year.

Yes Luis.. I know that... :lol:

I meant climotlogically... the likelihood of a TS/HR/STS in DEC must be rare... unless its not.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:15 am

Rare but not impossible.

yoda · #8 Postby **yoda** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:16 am

cycloneye wrote:Rare but not impossible.

Ok. Thanks Luis. Will this be a TS or an STS in your opinion?

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:25 am

yoda wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Rare but not impossible.

Ok. Thanks Luis. Will this be a TS or an STS in your opinion?

They will decide with all the data that comes to the NHC if it has full tropical caracteristics or if some cold features mantain there then it is subtropical but in a few hours we will know.

Hyperstorm · #10 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 7:24 am

About time... :eek:

Tropical Storm... a full fledged tropical cyclone with no fronts attached and convection over the center with a beautiful anticyclone aloft. That's what the system appears to be and what I expect at 10/11. I definitely expect a revision during post-analysis to include the subtropical part for the past 24-48 hours.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 7:27 am

30/1115 UTC 31.2N 50.9W ST 3.0/ 3.0 90 -- Atlantic Ocean

No question it will be.

KatDaddy · #12 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:48 am

This looks like it will be named.

Interesting the last year had 1 Nov storm and 2 Dec storms.

Could this be a trend as our planet continues to warm? I have to say yes. The warmer the planet, the more heat to disperse and hurricanes do just that

HumanCookie · #13 Postby **HumanCookie** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:50 am

Code: Select all

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST TUE 30 NOV 2004

SPECIAL FEATURE...
DEEP LAYERED NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BECOMING 
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ADVISORIES COULD BE 
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W AND THE 999 MB SURFACE LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 31N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 25N50W TO 
17N55W. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING N. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 700 NM 
E OF BERMUDA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW N OF REGION. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COMPLETELY 
SURROUND THE LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF 32.5N51W.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:39 am

No cigar yet at 10 AM EST.

I think that NHC wont upgrade this low this morning as the center in some instances becomes semiexposed.They are waiting for a more consolidation of the center with the convection to then name it.But apart from that it looks like a true storm with great banding.Let's see what they decide by 4 PM EST as what trend the system goes by that time.

#15 Postby **sponger** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:49 am

kat Daddy, you should read Dr Grey's synopsis of the 2004 hurricane season. Late storms in the Atlantic are likely the result of current 20-30 year period of warmer Atlantic Waters (a natural reoccuring cycle and not global warming) According to Dr Grey, world wide hurricane activity is actually down this year. We would expect to see more hurricanes over the entire planet, not just the Atlantic Basin. Global warming may be real, but the verdict is not in! IMHO

Hyperstorm · #16 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 10:15 am

Incredible...This could be one of two possibilities. Either the advisory package will be late OR they're playing the waiting game.

Honestly, I think is the latter. There should be NO reason to doubt that this is a full-fledged tropical cyclone at this time. If they keep waiting, there's going to be a time, when it won't be deserving to classify it.

In any case, I wouldn't worry about it because even if they DON'T classify it operationally, they should be smart enough to classify it during post-analysis...

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 10:19 am

Hyperstorm wrote:Incredible...This could be one of two possibilities. Either the advisory package will be late OR they're playing the waiting game.

Honestly, I think is the latter. There should be NO reason to doubt that this is a full-fledged tropical cyclone at this time. If they keep waiting, there's going to be a time, when it won't be deserving to classify it.

In any case, I wouldn't worry about it because even if they DON'T classify it operationally, they should be smart enough to classify it during post-analysis...

They should in post anaylisis upgrade if they dont do it today.

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 11:07 am

ABNT20 KNHC 301605
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT... HOWEVER THE
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS GALE
CENTER IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 11:09 am

I don't have words, or better to say, I can't use the words in this forum to describe to what the NHC is doing with this fully grown tropical cyclone. This system should have been upgraded since yesterday, but I don't know what is happening with this people.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #20 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 11:14 am

I don't have words that would not get me banned from this site for this. I don't care this will always be the unname storm to me for my records.

Will 93L be named Otto Today?

Will 93L be named Otto Today?

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